ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's disease (SES-CD) is the primary tool for measurement of mucosal inflammation in clinical trials but lacks prognostic potential. We set to develop and validate a modified multiplier of the SES-CD (MM-SES-CD), which takes into consideration each individual parameter's prognostic value for achieving endoscopic remission (ER) while on active therapy. METHODS: In this posthoc analysis of three CD clinical trial programmes (n=350 patients, baseline SES-CD ≥ 3 with confirmed ulceration), data were pooled and randomly split into a 70% training and 30% testing cohort. The MM-SES-CD was designed using weights for individual parameters as determined by logistic regression modelling, with 1-year ER (SES-CD < 3) being the dependent variable. A cut point score for low and high probability of ER was determined by using the maximum Youden Index and validated in the testing cohort. RESULTS: Baseline ulcer size, extent of ulceration and presence of non-passable strictures had the strongest association with 1-year ER as compared with affected surface area, with differential weighting of individual parameters across disease segments being observed during logistic regression. The MM-SES-CD was generated using this weighted regression model and demonstrated strong discrimination for ER in the training dataset (area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) 0.83, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.94) and in the testing dataset (AUC 0.82, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.92). In comparison to the MM-SES-CD scoring model, the original SES-CD score lacks accuracy (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.65) for predicting the achievement of ER. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated the MM-SES-CD as an endoscopic severity assessment tool to predict one-year ER in patients with CD on active therapy.
Subject(s)
Crohn Disease , Cohort Studies , Constriction, Pathologic , Crohn Disease/diagnostic imaging , Crohn Disease/drug therapy , Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal , Humans , Severity of Illness Index , UlcerABSTRACT
This article is the second in a series of two publications relating to the European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation [ECCO] evidence-based consensus on the management of Crohn's disease. The first article covers medical management; the present article addresses surgical management, including preoperative aspects and drug management before surgery. It also provides technical advice for a variety of common clinical situations. Both articles together represent the evidence-based recommendations of the ECCO for Crohn's disease and an update of previous guidelines.
