The Epidemiology of UK Autoimmune Liver Disease Varies With Geographic Latitude.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The epidemiology of autoimmune liver disease (AILD) is challenging to study because of the diseases' rarity and because of cohort selection bias. Increased incidence farther from the Equator has been reported for multiple sclerosis, another autoimmune disease. We assessed the incidence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) in relation to latitude. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using anonymized UK primary care records from January 1, 2002, to May 10, 2016. All adults without a baseline diagnosis of AILD were included and followed up until the first occurrence of an AILD diagnosis, death, or they left the database. Latitude was measured as registered general practice rounded down to whole degrees. RESULTS: The cohort included 8,590,421 records with 53.3 × 107 years of follow-up evaluation from 694 practices. There were 1314 incident cases of PBC, 396 of PSC, and 1034 of AIH. Crude incidences were as follows: PBC, 2.47 (95% CI, 2.34-2.60); PSC, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82); and AIH, 1.94 (95% CI, 1.83-2.06) per 100,000 per year. PBC incidence correlated with female sex, smoking, and deprivation; PSC incidence correlated with male sex and non-smoking; AIH incidence correlated with female sex and deprivation. A more northerly latitude was associated strongly with incidence of PBC: 2.16 (95% CI, 1.79-2.60) to 4.86 (95% CI, 3.93-6.00) from 50°N to 57°N (P = .002) and incidence of AIH: 2.00 (95% CI, 1.65-2.43) to 3.28 (95% CI, 2.53-4.24) (P = .003), but not incidence of PSC: 0.82 (95% CI, 0.60-1.11) to 1.02 (95% CI, 0.64-1.61) (P = .473). Incidence after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, and deprivation status showed similar positive correlations for PBC and AIH with latitude, but not PSC. Incident AIH cases were younger at more northerly latitude. CONCLUSIONS: We describe an association in the United Kingdom between more northerly latitude and the incidence of PBC and AIH that requires both confirmation and explanation.

Publication of UK NICE Clinical Guidelines 168 has not significantly changed the management of leg ulcers in primary care: An analysis of The Health Improvement Network database.

BACKGROUND: NICE Clinical Guidelines (CG) 168, published in July 2013, recommend specialist vascular referral for all leg ulcers, defined as a break in the skin below the knee that has not healed within two weeks. AIM: To examine the impact of CG168 on the primary care management of leg ulcers using The Health Improvement Network database. METHODS: An eligible population of approximately two million adult patients was analysed over two 18-month periods before and after publication of CG168. Those with a new diagnosis of leg ulcers in each time period were analysed in terms of demographics, specialist referral and superficial venous ablation. RESULTS: We identified 7532 and 7462 new diagnoses of leg ulcers in the pre- and post-CG168 cohorts, respectively. Patients with a new diagnosis of leg ulcers were elderly (median age: 77 years both cohorts) and less likely to be male (47% both cohorts). There were 2259 (30.0%) and 2329 (31.2%) vascular service referrals in the pre- and post-CG168 cohorts, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.11, p = 0.096). The median interval between general practitioner diagnosis and referral was 1.5 days in both cohorts. Patients from both cohorts who were referred for a new diagnosis of leg ulcers were equally likely to receive superficial venous ablation. CONCLUSIONS: Disappointingly, we have been unable to demonstrate that publication of NICE CG168 has been associated with a meaningful change in leg ulcer management in primary care in line with guideline recommendations.

Analysis of Effect of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Clinical Guideline CG168 on Management of Varicose Veins in Primary Care Using the Health Improvement Network Database.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: In July 2013, new UK guidelines recommended that all patients with symptomatic varicose veins (VV) be referred to a specialist vascular service for consideration of superficial venous intervention (SVI). In the UK, general practitioners (GPs) in primary care control access to publicly funded vascular services provided through the National Health Service. GP awareness and concordance with Clinical Guideline (CG)168 recommendations is vital if patients with VV are to receive evidence-based treatment in line with national recommendations. The aim was to assess the UK-wide impact of new guidelines on GP management of VV using a large database of electronic GP records. METHODS: An eligible population of patients aged ≥ 18 years was analysed over two 18-month periods, before and after guideline publication. Those with a new diagnosis of VV in each time period were analysed in terms of demographics, specialist referral, compression hosiery prescriptions, and recorded SVI. RESULTS: Analysis included approximately two million patients from 285 GP practices. Before and after CG168 cohorts were well matched. Study populations included 13,014 patients before and 12,466 patients after guideline publication. There was an increase in specialist referrals from 24% (n = 3173) to 28% (n = 3457) (Cox hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.20; p < .001). Median time to referral was 1.5 days. Prescribed compression hosiery declined from 20% (n = 2558) before the new guidelines to 18% (n = 2292) after the new guidelines (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.98; p = .008). There were similar increases in proportions recorded as having SVI, from 3.6% (n = 469) before the new guidelines to 4.2% (n = 526) after the new guidelines (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.31; p = .023). There was a statistically significant increase in endothermal ablation after CG168. In Cox models, age, sex, Townsend quintile, and body mass index were significantly related to the chance of referral and SVI. CONCLUSION: Encouragingly, following publication of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence CG168, there has been a statistically significant improvement in the management of VV in primary care in line with the CG recommendations.

Predictors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in primary care among adults living in developed countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is important because antiretroviral therapies are more effective if infected individuals are diagnosed early. Diagnosis of HIV relies on laboratory testing and determining the demographic and clinical characteristics of undiagnosed HIV-infected patients may be useful in identifying patients for testing. This systematic review aims to identify characteristics of HIV-infected adults prior to diagnosis that could be used in a prediction model for early detection of patients for HIV testing in UK primary care. METHODS: The population of interest was adults aged ≥ 18 years in developed countries. The exposures were demographic, socio-economic or clinical characteristics associated with the outcome, laboratory confirmed HIV/AIDS infection. Observational studies with a comparator group were included in the systematic review. Electronic searches for articles from January 1995 to April 2016 were conducted on online databases of EMBASE, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library and grey literature. Two reviewers selected studies for inclusion. A checklist was developed for quality assessment, and a data extraction form was created to collate data from selected studies. RESULTS: Full-text screening of 429 articles identified 17 cohort and case-control studies, from 26,819 retrieved articles. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics associated with HIV infection included age, gender and measures of deprivation. Lifestyle choices identified were drug use, binge-drinking, number of lifetime partners and having a partner with risky behaviour. Eighteen clinical features and comorbid conditions identified in this systematic review are included in the 51 conditions listed in the British HIV Association guidelines. Additional clinical features and comorbid conditions identified but not specified in the guidelines included hyperlipidemia, hypertension, minor trauma and diabetes. CONCLUSION: This systematic review consolidates existing scientific evidence on characteristics of HIV-infected individuals that could be used to inform decision making in prognostic model development. Further exploration of availability of some of the demographic and behavioural predictors of HIV, such as ethnicity, number of lifetime partners and partner characteristics, in primary care records will be required to determine whether they can be applied in the prediction model.

Predictors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in primary care: a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapies for human immunodeficiency virus are more effective if infected individuals are diagnosed early, before they have irreversible immunologic damage. A large proportion of patients that are diagnosed with HIV, in United Kingdom, would have seen a general practitioner (GP) within the previous year. Determining the demographic and clinical characteristics of HIV-infected patients prior to diagnosis of HIV may be useful in identifying patients likely to be HIV positive in primary care. This could help inform a strategy of early HIV testing in primary care. This systematic review aims to identify characteristics of HIV-infected adults prior to diagnosis that could be used in a prediction model for early detection of HIV in primary care. METHODS: The systematic review will search for literature, mainly observational (cohort and case-control) studies, with human participants aged 18 years and over. The exposures are demographic, socio-economic or clinical risk factors or characteristics associated with HIV infection. The comparison group will be patients with no risk factors or no comparison group. The outcome is laboratory-confirmed HIV/AIDS infection. Evidence will be identified from electronic searches of online databases of EMBASE, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library and grey literature search engines of Open Grey, Web of Science Conference Proceedings Citation Index and examination of reference lists from selected studies (reference searching). Two reviewers will be involved in quality assessment and data extraction of the review. A data extraction form will be developed to collate data from selected studies. A checklist for quality assessment will be adapted from the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN). DISCUSSION: This systematic review will identify and consolidate existing scientific evidence on characteristics of HIV infected individuals that could be used to inform decision-making in prognostic model development. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016042427.

Analysis of inadequate cervical smears using Shewhart control charts.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate cervical smears cannot be analysed, can cause distress to women, are a financial burden to the NHS and may lead to further unnecessary procedures being undertaken. Furthermore, the proportion of inadequate smears is known to vary widely amongst providers. This study investigates this variation using Shewhart's theory of variation and control charts, and suggests strategies for addressing this. METHODS: Cervical cytology data, from six laboratories, serving 100 general practices in a former UK Health Authority area were obtained for the years 2000 and 2001. Control charts of the proportion of inadequate smears were plotted for all general practices, for the six laboratories and for the practices stratified by laboratory. The relationship between proportion of inadequate smears and the proportion of negative, borderline, mild, moderate or severe dyskaryosis as well as the positive predictive value of a smear in each laboratory was also investigated. RESULTS: There was wide variation in the proportion of inadequate smears with 23% of practices showing evidence of special cause variation and four of the six laboratories showing evidence of special cause variation.There was no evidence of a clinically important association between high rates of inadequate smears and better detection of dyskaryosis (R2 = 0.082). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of inadequate smears is influenced by two distinct sources of variation - general practices and cytology laboratories, which are classified by the control chart methodology as either being consistent with common or special cause variation. This guidance from the control chart methodology appears to be useful in delivering the aim of continual improvement.