Evaluation of the usefulness of vitamin D as a predictor of mortality in patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: One of the functions of vitamin D is to regulate respiratory epithelium inflammatory response; therefore, deficiency of this vitamin in the context of COVID-19 could constitute a predictive biomarker of the disease outcome. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of vitamin D for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Observational, retrospective study in which 154 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included, out of whom 111 survived and 43 died. Vitamin D concentration was determined in all of them. RESULTS: A log-rank p-value < 0.032 was obtained for survival when vitamin D concentration was used as a categorical variable (≤ 20 ng/mL and > 20 ng/mL). On Cox proportional analysis, age and vitamin D concentration were shown to be risk factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 (age: HR = 1.036, 95% CI = 1.016-1.058, p < 0.001; vitamin D: HR (≤ 20 ng/mL and > 20 ng/mL) = 0.478, 95% CI = 0.237-0.966, p < 0.040). CONCLUSION: Age and vitamin D concentration were predictive factors for mortality in COVID-19-infected patients.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Una de las funciones de la vitamina D es regular la respuesta inflamatoria del epitelio respiratorio; por ello, la deficiencia de esa vitamina en el contexto de COVID-19 podría constituir un biomarcador preditivo del desenlace de COVID-19. OBJETIVO: Evaluar la utilidad de la vitamina D para predecir la mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19. MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo en el que se incluyeron 154 pacientes con diagnóstico de COVID-19, de los cuales 111 sobrevivieron y 43 fallecieron. En todos se determinó la concentración de vitamina D. RESULTADOS: Se obtuvo un valor log-rank de p < 0.032 para la supervivencia al utilizar la concentración de vitamina D como variable categórica (≤ 20 ng/mL y > 20 ng/mL). Mediante análisis proporcional de Cox se encontró que la edad y concentración de vitamina D mostraron ser factores de riesgo asociados a la mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19 (edad: HR = 1.036, IC 95 % = 1.016-1.058, p < 0.001; vitamina D: HR ≤ 20 ng/mL y > 20 ng/mL = 0.478, IC 95 % = 0.237-0.966, p < 0.040). CONCLUSIÓN: La edad y la concentración de vitamina D constituyeron factores predictivos de mortalidad en pacientes infectados por COVID-19.

Larvicidal Activity of Carbon Black against the Yellow Fever Mosquito Aedes aegypti.

The yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is one of the deadliest animals on the planet because it transmits several medically important arboviruses, including Zika, chikungunya, dengue, and yellow fever. Carbon-based nanoparticles (CNPs) derived from natural sources have previously been shown to have toxic effects on mosquito larvae and offer a potential alternative to chemical insecticides such as pyrethroids, for which mosquitoes have evolved resistance. However, CNPs derived from industrial sources, such as carbon black, have not previously been evaluated as larvicides. Here, we evaluate the effects of a commercially-available carbon black, EMPEROR® 1800 (E1800), on mortality and development of pyrethroid-susceptible (PS) and pyrethroid-resistant (PR) strains of Ae. aegypti. We found that E1800 exhibited concentration-dependent mortality against 1st instar larvae of both strains within the first 120 h after exposure, but after this period, surviving larvae did not show delays in their development to adults. Physical characterization of E1800 suspensions suggests that they form primary particles of ~30 nm in diameter that fuse into fundamental aggregates of ~170 nm in diameter. Notably, larvae treated with E1800 showed internal accumulation of E1800 in the gut and external accumulation on the respiratory siphon, anal papillae, and setae, suggesting a physical mode of toxic action. Taken together, our results suggest that E1800 has potential use as a larvicide with a novel mode of action for controlling PS and PR mosquitoes.

Evaluación de la utilidad de la vitamina D como predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19 / Evaluation of the usefulness of vitamin D as a predictor of mortality in patients with COVID-19

Resumen Introducción: Una de las funciones de la vitamina D es regular la respuesta inflamatoria del epitelio respiratorio; por ello, la deficiencia de esa vitamina en el contexto de COVID-19 podría constituir un biomarcador preditivo del desenlace de COVID-19. Objetivo: Evaluar la utilidad de la vitamina D para predecir la mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19. Métodos: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo en el que se incluyeron 154 pacientes con diagnóstico de COVID-19, de los cuales 111 sobrevivieron y 43 fallecieron. En todos se determinó la concentración de vitamina D. Resultados: Se obtuvo un valor log-rank de p < 0.032 para la supervivencia al utilizar la concentración de vitamina D como variable categórica (≤ 20 ng/mL y > 20 ng/mL). Mediante análisis proporcional de Cox se encontró que la edad y concentración de vitamina D mostraron ser factores de riesgo asociados a la mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19 (edad: HR = 1.036, IC 95 % = 1.016-1.058, p < 0.001; vitamina D: HR ≤ 20 ng/mL y > 20 ng/mL = 0.478, IC 95 % = 0.237-0.966, p < 0.040). Conclusión: La edad y la concentración de vitamina D constituyeron factores predictivos de mortalidad en pacientes infectados por COVID-19.

Abstract Introduction: One of the functions of vitamin D is to regulate respiratory epithelium inflammatory response; therefore, deficiency of this vitamin in the context of COVID-19 could constitute a predictive biomarker of the disease outcome. Objective: To evaluate the usefulness of vitamin D for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Observational, retrospective study in which 154 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included, out of whom 111 survived and 43 died. Vitamin D concentration was determined in all of them. Results: A log-rank p-value < 0.032 was obtained for survival when vitamin D concentration was used as a categorical variable (≤ 20 ng/mL and > 20 ng/mL). On Cox proportional analysis, age and vitamin D concentration were shown to be risk factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 (age: HR = 1.036, 95% CI = 1.016-1.058, p < 0.001; vitamin D: HR [≤ 20 ng/mL and > 20 ng/mL] = 0.478, 95% CI = 0.237-0.966, p < 0.040). Conclusion: Age and vitamin D concentration were predictive factors for mortality in COVID-19-infected patients.

Prospective predictive performance comparison between clinical gestalt and validated COVID-19 mortality scores.

Most COVID-19 mortality scores were developed at the beginning of the pandemic and clinicians now have more experience and evidence-based interventions. Therefore, we hypothesized that the predictive performance of COVID-19 mortality scores is now lower than originally reported. We aimed to prospectively evaluate the current predictive accuracy of six COVID-19 scores and compared it with the accuracy of clinical gestalt predictions. 200 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled in a tertiary hospital in Mexico City between September and December 2020. The area under the curve (AUC) of the LOW-HARM, qSOFA, MSL-COVID-19, NUTRI-CoV, and NEWS2 scores and the AUC of clinical gestalt predictions of death (as a percentage) were determined. In total, 166 patients (106 men and 60 women aged 56±9 years) with confirmed COVID-19 were included in the analysis. The AUC of all scores was significantly lower than originally reported: LOW-HARM 0.76 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.84) vs 0.96 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.98), qSOFA 0.61 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81), MSL-COVID-19 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.73) vs 0.72 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.75), NUTRI-CoV 0.60 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.69) vs 0.79 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.82), NEWS2 0.65 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.75) vs 0.84 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.90), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.85). Clinical gestalt predictions were non-inferior to mortality scores, with an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). Adjusting scores with locally derived likelihood ratios did not improve their performance; however, some scores outperformed clinical gestalt predictions when clinicians' confidence of prediction was <80%. Despite its subjective nature, clinical gestalt has relevant advantages in predicting COVID-19 clinical outcomes. The need and performance of most COVID-19 mortality scores need to be evaluated regularly.

Further SAR on the (Phenylsulfonyl)piperazine Scaffold as Inhibitors of the Aedes aegypti Kir1 (AeKir) Channel and Larvicides.

Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue fever (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) are arboviruses that are spread to humans from the bite of an infected adult female Aedes aegypti mosquito. As there are no effective vaccines or therapeutics for these diseases, the primary strategy for controlling the spread of these viruses is to prevent the mosquito from biting humans through the use of insecticides. Unfortunately, the commonly used classes of insecticides have seen a significant increase in resistance, thus complicating control efforts. Inhibiting the renal inward rectifier potassium (Kir) channel of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti has been shown to be a promising target for the development of novel mosquitocides. We have shown that Kir1 channels play key roles in mosquito diuresis, hemolymph potassium homeostasis, flight, and reproduction. Previous work from our laboratories identified a novel (phenylsulfonyl)piperazine scaffold as potent AeKir channel inhibitors with activity against both adult and larval mosquitoes. Herein, we report further SAR work around this scaffold and have identified additional compounds with improved in vitro potency and mosquito larvae toxicity.

The low-harm score for predicting mortality in patients diagnosed with COVID-19: A multicentric validation study.

Objective: We sought to determine the accuracy of the LOW-HARM score (Lymphopenia, Oxygen saturation, White blood cells, Hypertension, Age, Renal injury, and Myocardial injury) for predicting death from coronavirus disease 2019) COVID-19. Methods: We derived the score as a concatenated Fagan's nomogram for Bayes theorem using data from published cohorts of patients with COVID-19. We validated the score on 400 consecutive COVID-19 hospital admissions (200 deaths and 200 survivors) from 12 hospitals in Mexico. We determined the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of LOW-HARM for predicting hospital death. Results: LOW-HARM scores and their distributions were significantly lower in patients who were discharged compared to those who died during their hospitalization 5 (SD: 14) versus 70 (SD: 28). The overall area under the curve for the LOW-HARM score was 0.96, (95% confidence interval: 0.94-0.98). A cutoff > 65 points had a specificity of 97.5% and a positive predictive value of 96%. Conclusions: The LOW-HARM score measured at hospital admission is highly specific and clinically useful for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Semi-synthetic cinnamodial analogues: Structural insights into the insecticidal and antifeedant activities of drimane sesquiterpenes against the mosquito Aedes aegypti.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito serves as a major vector for viral diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, which are spreading across the globe and threatening public health. In addition to increased vector transmission, the prevalence of insecticide-resistant mosquitoes is also on the rise, thus solidifying the need for new, safe and effective insecticides to control mosquito populations. We recently discovered that cinnamodial, a unique drimane sesquiterpene dialdehyde of the Malagasy medicinal plant Cinnamosma fragrans, exhibited significant larval and adult toxicity to Ae. aegypti and was more efficacious than DEET-the gold standard for insect repellents-at repelling adult female Ae. aegypti from blood feeding. In this study several semi-synthetic analogues of cinnamodial were prepared to probe the structure-activity relationship (SAR) for larvicidal, adulticidal and antifeedant activity against Ae. aegypti. Initial efforts were focused on modification of the dialdehyde functionality to produce more stable active analogues and to understand the importance of the 1,4-dialdehyde and the α,ß-unsaturated carbonyl in the observed bioactivity of cinnamodial against mosquitoes. This study represents the first investigation into the SAR of cinnamodial as an insecticide and antifeedant against the medically important Ae. aegypti mosquito.