ABSTRACT
We aimed to assess differences in the summer excess of mortality by COVID-19 history using data from the mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 4% excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019. A mortality rate ratio of 1.59 (95%CI 1.39-1.82) for COVID-19 survivors compared to naive, was found. Both were higher in people aged [≥]75 years. During the July heat wave, the excess for COVID-19 survivors decreased and disappeared when excluding people living in nursing homes. Funding statementThis study was partially supported by the Italian Ministry of Health -CCM 2020 - "Sorveglianza epidemiologica e controllo del COVID-19 in aree urbane metropolitane e per il contenimento della circolazione del Sars-CoV-2 nella popolazione immigrata in Italia" and by the Ricerca Corrente 2023 HighlightsO_LIthe excess of mortality in COVID-19 survivors is not exacerbated by heatwaves C_LIO_LIan excess of mortality during the whole summer in COVID-19 survivors aged over 75 suggest that no harvesting effect is appreciable in the older population that survived COVID-19 C_LIO_LIFor COVID-19 survivors aged over 75, a lower mortality than the naive population was observed only during the July heat wave when we stratified by residency C_LI
ABSTRACT
The aim of this population-based study was to evaluate the impact of having had cancer on COVID-19 risk and prognosis during the first wave of the pandemic (27 February - 13 May 2020) in Reggio Emilia Province. Prevalent cancer cases diagnosed between 1996 and December 2019 were linked with the provincial COVID-19 surveillance system. We compared cancer survivors (CS) cumulative incidence of being tested, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, being hospitalized, and dying of COVID-19 with that of the general population; we compared COVID-19 prognosis in CS and in patients without cancer. 15,391 people (1527 CS) underwent RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 4541 (447 CS) tested positive; 541 (113 CS) died of COVID-19. The cumulative incidences of being tested, testing positive, COVID-19 hospitalization, and death were lower in CS: age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios were 1.28 [95%CI = 1.21, 1.35], 1.06 [95%CI = 0.96, 1.18], 1.27 [95%CI = 1.09, 1.48], and 1.39 [95%CI = 1.12, 1.71], respectively. CS had worse prognosis when diagnosed with COVID-19, particularly those below the age of 70 (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death 5.03; [95%CI = 2.59, 9.75]), while the OR decreased after age 70. The OR of death was higher for patients with a recent diagnosis, i.e. <2 years (OR=2.92; 95%CI = 1.64, 5.21), or metastases (OR=2.09; 95%CI = 0. 88, 4.93). Cancer patients showed the same probability of being infected, despite a slightly higher probability of being tested, than the general population, nevertheless they were at higher risk of death once infected. Novelty and impactCancer survivors during the first wave of the pandemic showed higher COVID-19 cumulative incidence and mortality. When infected, they had worse prognosis, particularly in people younger than age 70 or those with a recent diagnosis.
