Climate and fertility amid a public health crisis.

One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19.

Scars from a Previous Epidemic: Social Proximity to Zika and Fertility Intentions during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

We examine whether women's social proximity to Zika during the Zika epidemic predicts intentions to avoid a pregnancy because of the COVID-19 pandemic either directly or indirectly via subjective assessments of the pandemic. We apply path models on unique microdata from Brazil, the country most affected by Zika and an epicenter of COVID-19, to understand whether a novel infectious disease outbreak left lasting imprints shaping fertility intentions during a subsequent novel infectious disease outbreak. Findings show that Zika social proximity is associated with fertility intentions through an indirect path related to subjective assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings emerged regardless of whether a woman herself had or suspected she had Zika and speak to the transformative consequences of novel infectious disease outbreaks that go beyond mortality and health.

Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Fertility intentions-intentions regarding whether and when to have children-predict reproductive health outcomes. Measuring fertility intentions is difficult, particularly during macrostructural shocks, for at least two reasons: (1) fertility intentions may be especially volatile during periods of uncertainty and (2) macrostructural shocks may constrain data collection. We propose a set of indicators that capture how a macrostructural shock directly alters fertility intentions, with a particular focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. We advance the conceptualization and construct of fertility intentions measures in three ways. First, we demonstrate the value of direct questions about whether women attributed changes in fertility intentions to the pandemic. Second, we highlight the importance of a typology that delineates fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision. Third, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating a granular time window within a two-year period to capture short-term changes to fertility intentions. We exemplify the value of our proposed measures using survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil. We discuss the self-reported change in intentions due to Covid in wave 1 as well as panel change across waves. We further ground our contributions by uncovering important variations by social origin and parity.

Identifying hidden Zika hotspots in Pernambuco, Brazil: a spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Northeast Brazil has the world's highest rate of Zika-related microcephaly. However, Zika case counts cannot accurately describe burden because mandatory reporting was only established when the epidemic was declining in the region. METHODS: To advance the study of the Zika epidemic, we identified hotspots of Zika in Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil, using Aedes-borne diseases (dengue, chikungunya and Zika) and microcephaly data. We used Kulldorff's Poisson purely spatial scan statistic to detect low- and high-risk clusters for Aedes-borne diseases (2014-2017) and for microcephaly (2015-2017), separately. Municipalities were classified according to a proposed gradient of Zika burden during the epidemic, based on the combination of cluster status in each analysis and considering the strength of the evidence. RESULTS: We identified 26 Aedes-borne diseases clusters (11 high-risk) and 5 microcephaly clusters (3 high-risk) in Pernambuco. According to the proposed Zika burden gradient, our results indicate that the northeast of Pernambuco and the Sertão region were hit hardest by the Zika epidemic. The first is the most populous area of Pernambuco, while the second has one of the highest rates of social and economic inequality in Brazil. CONCLUSION: We successfully identified possible hidden Zika hotspots using a simple methodology combining Aedes-borne diseases and microcephaly information.

Parent involvement and children's academic achievement: Evidence from a census of public school students in Brazil.

In order to broaden findings beyond high-income countries, this study used path models to test associations between parent involvement and student achievement in Brazil using a 2017 census of public school students in fifth grade (N = 2,167,729, Mage  = 11, 49 % female, 44% Parda, 29% White, 11% Black, 3% Asian, 3% Indigenous) and ninth grade (N = 1,782,899, Mage  = 15, 51% female, 46% Parda, 29% White, 12% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Indigenous). Parent involvement showed positive associations with student reading and math achievement for fifth graders (ßs = .11 & .09) but essentially null associations for ninth graders (ßs = -.01). Students' homework completion mediated associations in both grades (ßs = .03). Parent education was not a strong moderator of associations.

Intersections of Adolescent Well-Being: School, Work, and Weight Status in Brazil.

Socioeconomic and health disadvantages can emerge early in the life course, making adolescence a key period to examine the association between socioeconomic status and health. Past research on obesity in adolescence has focused on family measures of socioeconomic status, overlooking the role of individual-level nascent indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage. Using measured height and weight from nationally representative data from Brazil, we estimate sibling fixed effects models to examine the independent effects of nascent socioeconomic characteristics-school enrollment and work status-on adolescent overweight and obesity, accounting for unobserved genetic and environmental factors shared by siblings. Results show that school enrollment is associated with lower odds of overweight and obesity. Working is not significantly associated with overweight/obesity risk. However, adolescents not enrolled but working face the highest risk of overweight/obesity. Findings suggest that adolescents face added layers of disadvantage from being out of school, with important implications for the accumulation of health disadvantages.

Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil.

In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome poses a threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), this study examines live births and fertility trends amid the ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. Findings suggest a decline in live births that is stratified across educational and geographic lines, beginning approximately nine months after the link between ZIKV and microcephaly was publicly announced. Although declines in total fertility rates were small, fertility trends estimated by age and maternal education suggest important differences in how Zika might have impacted Brazil's fertility structure. Further findings confirm the significant declines in live births in mid-2016 even when characteristics of the municipality are controlled for; these results highlight important nuances in the timing and magnitude of the decline. Combined, our findings illustrate the value of understanding how the risk of a health threat directed at fetuses has led to declines in live births and fertility.

Gender, Socioeconomic Status, and Diet Behaviors within Brazilian Families.

Existing literature documents the key role that parents play in transmitting diet behaviors to their children; however, less is known about differences by parent and child gender within families, especially with attention to household socioeconomic status (SES). We use nationally representative household data from Brazil and ask how parent-child associations of diet behavior differ by gender within lower- and higher-SES households. Results indicate that both maternal and paternal diet behaviors are associated with sons' and daughters' diet behaviors, but the strength of these associations differs depending on the gender of both the parent and the child. Moreover, gender differences in parent-child diet resemblance exist primarily in lower-, but not in higher-SES households. These findings are important for understanding health processes that occur within families and lead to disparities across generations, especially in a middle-income country undergoing sharp economic and nutritional changes.

The Educational Consequences of Adolescent Childbearing and Union Formation in Brazil.

While Brazil has high rates of adolescent fertility for its below-replacement total fertility rate, we know little about the causal effects of adolescent childbearing and adolescent union formation for women's education. In this paper, we examine unique data from the 2013 School-to-Work Transitions Survey to address the consequences of adolescent childbearing and adolescent union formation on educational outcomes of Brazilian young women. We apply several analytical strategies to address the endogeneity between adolescent childbearing and educational outcomes. Our findings suggest that childbearing during the teenage years is detrimental to the educational attainment of Brazilian women, and that educational disadvantages persist once we take into account mother's selection into adolescent childbearing. The penalty for adolescent mothers ranges from -1.66 to -1.80 fewer years of schooling and from 41 to 35 percent difference in the probabilities of graduating from high school. Additional findings show that marital unions among adolescent mothers have a compounding role at further hindering women's educational progress. Combined, our findings suggest that young mothers, particularly those in a marital union, face additional layers of disadvantages, demonstrating that early family formation is a meaningful stratifier for women in an already highly-stratified society.

The Weight of Inequality: Socioeconomic Status and Adolescent Body Mass in Brazil.

The high rate of obesity among adolescents is a global public health problem that has recently expanded to affect middle- and low-income countries. Brazil, which is undergoing a relatively rapid nutrition transition and has inadequate health systems, is currently experiencing the consequences of increasing rates of overweight and obesity concomitantly with the consequences of generations of malnourishment. Given this scenario, Brazil is an ideal context for examining the relationship between family socioeconomic status (SES) and adolescent body mass, as well as how this relationship varies across very different regions within the same country and across the body mass index (BMI) continuum. Guided by a framework that integrates nutrition transition and fundamental cause theories, we use unique nationally representative data with measured height and weight for all household members to conduct quantile regression models. The results suggest that family socioeconomic conditions are important theoretical factors associated with adolescent BMI, but that the way in which family SES impinges on adolescent BMI varies across regions characterized by different locations in the nutrition transition and varying levels of economic development. We also find that family socioeconomic disadvantages operate very differently according to BMI status. The results show that the socioeconomic gradient of adolescent BMI varies by stages of the nutrition transition and economic development and across BMI percentiles.

Racial Inequality in Education in Brazil: A Twins Fixed-Effects Approach.

Racial disparities in education in Brazil (and elsewhere) are well documented. Because this research typically examines educational variation between individuals in different families, however, it cannot disentangle whether racial differences in education are due to racial discrimination or to structural differences in unobserved neighborhood and family characteristics. To address this common data limitation, we use an innovative within-family twin approach that takes advantage of the large sample of Brazilian adolescent twins classified as different races in the 1982 and 1987-2009 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios. We first examine the contexts within which adolescent twins in the same family are labeled as different races to determine the characteristics of families crossing racial boundaries. Then, as a way to hold constant shared unobserved and observed neighborhood and family characteristics, we use twins fixed-effects models to assess whether racial disparities in education exist between twins and whether such disparities vary by gender. We find that even under this stringent test of racial inequality, the nonwhite educational disadvantage persists and is especially pronounced for nonwhite adolescent boys.

Instability in Parent-Child Coresidence and Adolescent Development in Urban South Africa.

There is widespread recognition of the importance of family stability for child development. South Africa presents an interesting context in which to study the consequences of family instability because of the traditionally fluid nature of household composition due to labor migration, child fostering, and non-marital fertility. More recently, the HIV pandemic has added another source of instability. Within South Africa, however, patterns of instability differ markedly across racial groups. We use the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS) data to examine the implications of changes in parent-child coresidence for educational and sexual development of young South Africans. We show that changes in maternal and paternal coresidence have implications for the timing of sexual initiation for both black and coloured adolescents. Maternal and paternal transitions also lead to poorer educational outcomes for coloured adolescents, but parental disruptions are not significantly related to educational outcomes for blacks. These findings suggest that the implications of coresidential instability vary by race, reflecting racial differences with respect to cultural, social, and economic conditions.

Family Ties and Young Fathers' Engagement in Cape Town, South Africa.

Young South African fathers are often engaged in their children's lives even if they do not live together. Using longitudinal data on children (n = 1,209) from the Cape Town area, the authors show that although only 26% of young fathers live with their children, 66% of nonresidential fathers maintain regular contact, and 61% provide financial support. The father-child relationship, however, is embedded in broader family ties. The type of father-mother relationship is strongly associated with whether fathers coreside with their children, but not with fathers' contact with nonresidential children. Close mother and maternal grandmother bonds reduce the likelihood that fathers live with their children, whereas close ties between fathers and paternal grandmothers increase the chance that fathers visit nonresidential children. Family ties do not affect fathers' financial contributions, which are driven by men's current economic situation. These findings illustrate that father-child relationships are best understood in the context of interacting family systems.

The influence of older classmates on adolescent sexual behavior in Cape Town, South Africa.

This study examines the influence of exposure to older within-grade peers on sexual behavior among students in urban South Africa. Data are drawn from the Cape Area Panel Study, a longitudinal survey of young people conducted in metropolitan Cape Town from 2002 to 2006. The combination of early sexual debut, high rates of school enrollment into the late teens, and grade repetition create an environment in which young people who progress through school ahead of many in their cohort interact with classmates who may be several years older. We construct a measure of cumulative exposure to classmates who are at least two years older and show that such exposure is statistically significantly associated with early sexual initiation among adolescent girls. This exposure also increases the age difference between these girls and their first sexual partner, and helps explain a significant proportion of the earlier sexual debut of African girls, compared with colored and white girls in Cape Town.

Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Brazil has witnessed dramatic changes in its fertility patterns in recent decades. The decline to below-replacement fertility has been accompanied by increases in the proportion of children born to young mothers. Yet we know little about the well-being of children born to young mothers in Brazil. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: Using data from the 2006 Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saúde and a quasi-natural experimental approach, this study examines the implications of maternal age at first birth for the education of Brazilian adolescents. RESULTS: We find that being born to a young mother is associated with educational disadvantages in adolescence, but that these disadvantages are attenuated once we account for mothers' selection into early childbearing. We also find that, in southern Brazil, adolescents born to young mothers have poorer educational outcomes compared with their peers born to older mothers, but that in northern Brazil no such disparities exist. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent educational disadvantages associated with being born to a young mother are not an artifact of selectivity, at least in southern Brazil. Regional variation in the effect of maternal age at first birth on adolescent education suggests the important role of the extended family and the father's presence as mechanisms through which disadvantages operate.

Desigualdades de oportunidades educacionais dos adolescentes no Brasil e no México / Desigualdad en las oportunidades educacionales de los adolescentes en Brasil y México / Inequalities in educational opportunities of adolescents in Brazil and Mexico

O objetivo desse artigo é examinar tendências recentes da estratificação educacional para adolescentes do Brasil e México em três períodos distintos: a década de 1980, de severa recessão; os anos 1990, um período de ajustes estruturais; e os anos 2000, década de crescimento. Além de matrículas escolares e probabilidades de transições educacionais, é examinada também a matrícula em escolas particulares, um aspecto importante da desigualdade educacional pouco abordado em estudos sobre o tema. Foram utilizados dados das PNADs para o Brasil e ENIGH para o México. Os resultados confirmam importantes benefícios trazidos pelas condições favoráveis recentes e pela universalização do ensino fundamental, mas também identificam crescentes desvantagens associadas ao acesso à escola particular, o que sugere a importância da perspectiva EMI (Effectively Maintained Inequality). O estudo enfatiza a importância de analisar a qualidade além da quantidade de ensino formal para uma compreensão mais profunda da estratificação educacional.

El objetivo de este artículo es examinar tendencias recientes de estratificación educacional en adolescentes de Brasil y México durante tres períodos distintos: la década de 1980, de severa recesión; los años de la década de 1990, un período de ajustes estructurales; y los años de la década del 2000, la denominada de crecimiento. Además de matrículas escolares, y probabilidades de transiciones educacionales, se examina también la matrícula en escuelas privadas, un aspecto importante de la desigualdad educacional poco abordado en estudios sobre el tema. Se utilizaron datos de las PNADs sobre Brasil y ENIGH sobre México. Los resultados confirman importantes beneficios, atraídos por las condiciones recientes favorables y por la universalización de la enseñanza fundamental, a la par que también identifican crecientes desventajas, asociadas al acceso a la escuela privada, lo que sugiere la importancia de la perspectiva EMI (EffectivelyMaintained Inequality). El estudio enfatiza la importancia de analizar la calidad, además de la cantidad, de enseñanza formal para conseguir una comprensión más profunda de la estratificación educacional.

The aim of this paper is to examine recent trends in educational stratification for adolescents in Brazil and in Mexico in three distinct periods: the 1980s, years of severe recession, the 1990s, a period of structural adjustment, and the 2000s, a decade of growth. In addition to school enrollment and educational transitions, we also examined enrollment in private schools, an important aspect of educational inequality rarely addressed in studies on this topic. We used nationally representative data from the PNAD for Brazil and ENIGH for Mexico. Our findings confirm the significant benefits brought by recent improved conditions of universal primary education, but also identify increasing disadvantages associated with access to private schools, suggesting the importance of the EMI perspective (Effectively Maintained Inequality). The study emphasizes the importance of examining the quality in addition to the quantity of formal education for a deeper understanding of educational stratification in both Brazil and Mexico.

The changing impact of family size on adolescents' schooling: assessing the exogenous variation in fertility using twins in Brazil.

Researchers have long been interested in the influence of family size on children's educational outcomes. Simply put, theories have suggested that resources are diluted within families that have more children. Although the empirical literature on developed countries has generally confirmed the theoretical prediction that family size is negatively related to children's education, studies focusing on developing societies have reported heterogeneity in this association. Recent studies addressing the endogeneity between family size and children's education have also cast doubt on the homogeneity of the negative role of family size on children's education. The goal of this study is to examine the causal effect of family size on children's education in Brazil over a 30-year period marked by important social and demographic change, and across extremely different regions within the country. We implement a twin birth instrumental variable approach to the nationally representative 1977-2009 PNAD data. Our results suggest an effect of family size on education that is not uniform throughout a period of significant social, economic, and demographic change. Rather, the causal effect of family size on adolescents' schooling resembles a gradient that ranges from positive to no effect, trending to negative.

Educational inequality by race in Brazil, 1982-2007: structural changes and shifts in racial classification.

Despite overwhelming improvements in educational levels and opportunity during the past three decades, educational disadvantages associated with race still persist in Brazil. Using the nationally representative Pesquisa Nacional de Amostra por Domicílio (PNAD) data from 1982 and 1987 to 2007, this study investigates educational inequalities between white, pardo (mixed-race), and black Brazilians over the 25-year period. Although the educational advantage of whites persisted during this period, I find that the significance of race as it relates to education changed. By 2007, those identified as blacks and pardos became more similar in their schooling levels, whereas in the past, blacks had greater disadvantages. I test two possible explanations for this shift: structural changes and shifts in racial classification. I find evidence for both. I discuss the findings in light of the recent race-based affirmative action policies being implemented in Brazilian universities.