When is the allele-sharing dissimilarity between two populations exceeded by the allele-sharing dissimilarity of a population with itself?

Allele-sharing statistics for a genetic locus measure the dissimilarity between two populations as a mean of the dissimilarity between random pairs of individuals, one from each population. Owing to within-population variation in genotype, allele-sharing dissimilarities can have the property that they have a nonzero value when computed between a population and itself. We consider the mathematical properties of allele-sharing dissimilarities in a pair of populations, treating the allele frequencies in the two populations parametrically. Examining two formulations of allele-sharing dissimilarity, we obtain the distributions of within-population and between-population dissimilarities for pairs of individuals. We then mathematically explore the scenarios in which, for certain allele-frequency distributions, the within-population dissimilarity - the mean dissimilarity between randomly chosen members of a population - can exceed the dissimilarity between two populations. Such scenarios assist in explaining observations in population-genetic data that members of a population can be empirically more genetically dissimilar from each other on average than they are from members of another population. For a population pair, however, the mathematical analysis finds that at least one of the two populations always possesses smaller within-population dissimilarity than the value of the between-population dissimilarity. We illustrate the mathematical results with an application to human population-genetic data.

The impact of the federal menu labeling law on the sentiment of Twitter discussions about restaurants and food retailers: An interrupted time series analysis.

The US federal menu labeling law, implemented on May 7 th 2018, required that restaurant chains post calorie counts on menu items. The purpose of this study was to analyze the change in public sentiment, using Twitter data, regarding eight restaurant chains before and after the calorie labeling law's implementation. Twitter data was mined from Twitter's application programming interface (API) for this study from the calendar year 2018; 2016 and was collected as a control. We selected restaurant chains that had a range of compliance dates with the law. Tweets about each chain were filtered by brand-specific keywords, and Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner (VADER) sentiment analysis was applied to receive a continuous compound score (-1-1) of how positive (1) or negative (-1) each tweet was. Controlled Interrupted Time Series (CITS) was performed with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression on 2018 and 2016 series of compound scores for each brand, and level and trend changes were calculated. Most restaurant chains that implemented the federal menu calorie labeling law experienced no change or a small change in level or trend in sentiment after they implemented labeling. Chains experienced mildly more negative sentiment right after the law was implemented, with attenuation of this effect over time. Calorie labeling did not have a strong effect on the public's perception of food brands over the long-term on Twitter and may imply the need for greater efforts to change the sentiment towards unhealthy restaurant chains.

Body Mass Index and Mammographic Density in a Multiracial and Multiethnic Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) is strongly associated with breast cancer risk. We examined whether body mass index (BMI) partially explains racial and ethnic variation in MD. METHODS: We used multivariable Poisson regression to estimate associations between BMI and binary MD [Breast Imaging Reporting and Database System (BI-RADS) A&B versus BI-RADS C&D] among 160,804 women in the Utah mammography cohort. We estimated associations overall and within racial and ethnic subgroups and calculated population attributable risk percents (PAR%). RESULTS: We observed the lowest BMI and highest MD among Asian women, the highest BMI among Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander women, and the lowest MD among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) and Black women. BMI was inversely associated with MD [RRBMI≥30 vs. BMI<25 = 0.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42-0.44] in the full cohort, and estimates in all racial and ethnic subgroups were consistent with this strong inverse association. For women less than 45 years of age, although there was statistical evidence of heterogeneity in associations between BMI and MD by race and ethnicity (P = 0.009), magnitudes of association were similar across groups. PAR%s for BMI and MD among women less than 45 years were considerably higher in White women (PAR% = 29.2, 95% CI = 28.4-29.9) compared with all other groups with estimates ranging from PAR%Asain = 17.2%; 95% CI, 8.5 to 25.8 to PAR%Hispanic = 21.5%; 95% CI, 19.4 to 23.6. For women ≥55 years, PAR%s for BMI and MD were highest among AIAN women (PAR% = 37.5; 95% CI, 28.1-46.9). CONCLUSIONS: While we observed substantial differences in the distributions of BMI and MD by race and ethnicity, associations between BMI and MD were generally similar across groups. IMPACT: Distributions of BMI and MD may be important contributors to breast cancer disparities.

Prediction of dengue fever outbreaks using climate variability and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques in a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model.

The recent increase in the global incidence of dengue fever resulted in over 2.7 million cases in Latin America and many cases in Southeast Asia and has warranted the development and application of early warning systems (EWS) for futuristic outbreak prediction. EWS pertaining to dengue outbreaks is imperative; given the fact that dengue is linked to environmental factors owing to its dominance in the tropics. Prediction is an integral part of EWS, which is dependent on several factors, in particular, climate, geography, and environmental factors. In this study, we explore the role of increased susceptibility to a DENV serotype and climate variability in developing novel predictive models by analyzing RT-PCR and DENV-IgM confirmed cases in Singapore and Honduras, which reported high dengue incidence in 2019 and 2020, respectively. A random-sampling-based susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model was used to obtain estimates of the susceptible fraction for modeling the dengue epidemic, in addition to the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique that was used to fit the model to Singapore and Honduras case report data from 2012 to 2020. Regression techniques were used to implement climate variability in two methods: a climate-based model, based on individual climate variables, and a seasonal model, based on trigonometrically varying transmission rates. The seasonal model accounted for 98.5% and 92.8% of the variance in case count in the 2020 Singapore and 2019 Honduras outbreaks, respectively. The climate model accounted for 75.3% and 68.3% of the variance in Singapore and Honduras outbreaks respectively, besides accounting for 75.4% of the variance in the major 2013 Singapore outbreak, 71.5% of the variance in the 2019 Singapore outbreak, and over 70% of the variance in 2015 and 2016 Honduras outbreaks. The seasonal model accounted for 14.2% and 83.1% of the variance in the 2013 and 2019 Singapore outbreaks, respectively, in addition to 91% and 59.5% of the variance in the 2015 and 2016 Honduras outbreaks, respectively. Autocorrelation lag tests showed that the climate model exhibited better prediction dynamics for Singapore outbreaks during the dry season from May to August and in the rainy season from June to October in Honduras. After incorporation of susceptible fractions, the seasonal model exhibited higher accuracy in predicting outbreaks of higher case magnitude, including those of the 2019-2020 dengue epidemic, in comparison to the climate model, which was more accurate in outbreaks of smaller magnitude. Such modeling studies could be further performed in various outbreaks, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to understand the outbreak dynamics and predict the occurrence of future outbreaks.