Non-Poissonian Bursts in the Arrival of Phenotypic Variation Can Strongly Affect the Dynamics of Adaptation.

Modeling the rate at which adaptive phenotypes appear in a population is a key to predicting evolutionary processes. Given random mutations, should this rate be modeled by a simple Poisson process, or is a more complex dynamics needed? Here we use analytic calculations and simulations of evolving populations on explicit genotype-phenotype maps to show that the introduction of novel phenotypes can be "bursty" or overdispersed. In other words, a novel phenotype either appears multiple times in quick succession or not at all for many generations. These bursts are fundamentally caused by statistical fluctuations and other structure in the map from genotypes to phenotypes. Their strength depends on population parameters, being highest for "monomorphic" populations with low mutation rates. They can also be enhanced by additional inhomogeneities in the mapping from genotypes to phenotypes. We mainly investigate the effect of bursts using the well-studied genotype-phenotype map for RNA secondary structure, but find similar behavior in a lattice protein model and in Richard Dawkins's biomorphs model of morphological development. Bursts can profoundly affect adaptive dynamics. Most notably, they imply that fitness differences play a smaller role in determining which phenotype fixes than would be the case for a Poisson process without bursts.

Bias in the arrival of variation can dominate over natural selection in Richard Dawkins's biomorphs.

Biomorphs, Richard Dawkins's iconic model of morphological evolution, are traditionally used to demonstrate the power of natural selection to generate biological order from random mutations. Here we show that biomorphs can also be used to illustrate how developmental bias shapes adaptive evolutionary outcomes. In particular, we find that biomorphs exhibit phenotype bias, a type of developmental bias where certain phenotypes can be many orders of magnitude more likely than others to appear through random mutations. Moreover, this bias exhibits a strong preference for simpler phenotypes with low descriptional complexity. Such bias towards simplicity is formalised by an information-theoretic principle that can be intuitively understood from a picture of evolution randomly searching in the space of algorithms. By using population genetics simulations, we demonstrate how moderately adaptive phenotypic variation that appears more frequently upon random mutations can fix at the expense of more highly adaptive biomorph phenotypes that are less frequent. This result, as well as many other patterns found in the structure of variation for the biomorphs, such as high mutational robustness and a positive correlation between phenotype evolvability and robustness, closely resemble findings in molecular genotype-phenotype maps. Many of these patterns can be explained with an analytic model based on constrained and unconstrained sections of the genome. We postulate that the phenotype bias towards simplicity and other patterns biomorphs share with molecular genotype-phenotype maps may hold more widely for developmental systems.

The Boltzmann distributions of molecular structures predict likely changes through random mutations.

New folded molecular structures can only evolve after arising through mutations. This aspect is modeled using genotype-phenotype maps, which connect sequence changes through mutations to changes in molecular structures. Previous work has shown that the likelihood of appearing through mutations can differ by orders of magnitude from structure to structure and that this can affect the outcomes of evolutionary processes. Thus, we focus on the phenotypic mutation probabilities φqp, i.e., the likelihood that a random mutation changes structure p into structure q. For both RNA secondary structures and the HP protein model, we show that a simple biophysical principle can explain and predict how this likelihood depends on the new structure q: φqp is high if sequences that fold into p as the minimum-free-energy structure are likely to have q as an alternative structure with high Boltzmann frequency. This generalizes the existing concept of plastogenetic congruence from individual sequences to the entire neutral spaces of structures. Our result helps us understand why some structural changes are more likely than others, may be useful for estimating these likelihoods via sampling and makes a connection to alternative structures with high Boltzmann frequency, which could be relevant in evolutionary processes.

The non-deterministic genotype-phenotype map of RNA secondary structure.

Selection and variation are both key aspects in the evolutionary process. Previous research on the mapping between molecular sequence (genotype) and molecular fold (phenotype) has shown the presence of several structural properties in different biological contexts, implying that these might be universal in evolutionary spaces. The deterministic genotype-phenotype (GP) map that links short RNA sequences to minimum free energy secondary structures has been studied extensively because of its computational tractability and biologically realistic nature. However, this mapping ignores the phenotypic plasticity of RNA. We define a GP map that incorporates non-deterministic (ND) phenotypes, and take RNA as a case study; we use the Boltzmann probability distribution of folded structures and examine the structural properties of ND GP maps for RNA sequences of length 12 and coarse-grained RNA structures of length 30 (RNAshapes30). A framework is presented to study robustness, evolvability and neutral spaces in the ND map. This framework is validated by demonstrating close correspondence between the ND quantities and sample averages of their deterministic counterparts. When using the ND framework we observe the same structural properties as in the deterministic GP map, such as bias, negative correlation between genotypic robustness and evolvability, and positive correlation between phenotypic robustness and evolvability.

Fast free-energy-based neutral set size estimates for the RNA genotype-phenotype map.

The genotype-phenotype (GP) map of RNA secondary structure links each RNA sequence to its corresponding secondary structure. Previous research has shown that the large-scale structural properties of GP maps, such as the size of neutral sets in genotype space, can influence evolutionary outcomes. In order to use neutral set sizes, efficient and accurate computational methods are needed to compute them. Here, we propose a new method, which is based on free energy estimates and is much faster than existing sample-based methods. Moreover, this approach can give insight into the reasons behind neutral set size variations, for example, why structures with fewer stacks tend to have larger neutral set sizes. In addition, we generalize neutral set size calculations from the previously studied many-to-one framework, where each sequence folds into a single energetically preferred structure, to a fuller many-to-many framework, where several low-energy structures are included. We find that structures with high neutral sets in one framework also tend to have large neutral sets in the other framework for a range of parameters and thus the choice of GP map does not fundamentally affect which structures have the largest neutral set sizes.

Insertions and deletions in the RNA sequence-structure map.

Genotype-phenotype maps link genetic changes to their fitness effect and are thus an essential component of evolutionary models. The map between RNA sequences and their secondary structures is a key example and has applications in functional RNA evolution. For this map, the structural effect of substitutions is well understood, but models usually assume a constant sequence length and do not consider insertions or deletions. Here, we expand the sequence-structure map to include single nucleotide insertions and deletions by using the RNAshapes concept. To quantify the structural effect of insertions and deletions, we generalize existing definitions for robustness and non-neutral mutation probabilities. We find striking similarities between substitutions, deletions and insertions: robustness to substitutions is correlated with robustness to insertions and, for most structures, to deletions. In addition, frequent structural changes after substitutions also tend to be common for insertions and deletions. This is consistent with the connection between energetically suboptimal folds and possible structural transitions. The similarities observed hold both for genotypic and phenotypic robustness and mutation probabilities, i.e. for individual sequences and for averages over sequences with the same structure. Our results could have implications for the rate of neutral and non-neutral evolution.

From genotypes to organisms: State-of-the-art and perspectives of a cornerstone in evolutionary dynamics.

Understanding how genotypes map onto phenotypes, fitness, and eventually organisms is arguably the next major missing piece in a fully predictive theory of evolution. We refer to this generally as the problem of the genotype-phenotype map. Though we are still far from achieving a complete picture of these relationships, our current understanding of simpler questions, such as the structure induced in the space of genotypes by sequences mapped to molecular structures, has revealed important facts that deeply affect the dynamical description of evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence supporting the fundamental relevance of features such as phenotypic bias is mounting as well, while the synthesis of conceptual and experimental progress leads to questioning current assumptions on the nature of evolutionary dynamics-cancer progression models or synthetic biology approaches being notable examples. This work delves with a critical and constructive attitude into our current knowledge of how genotypes map onto molecular phenotypes and organismal functions, and discusses theoretical and empirical avenues to broaden and improve this comprehension. As a final goal, this community should aim at deriving an updated picture of evolutionary processes soundly relying on the structural properties of genotype spaces, as revealed by modern techniques of molecular and functional analysis.