Impact of the Global Fear Index (COVID-19 Panic) on the S&P Global Indices Associated with Natural Resources, Agribusiness, Energy, Metals, and Mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer Entropy.

The Global Fear Index (GFI) is a measure of fear/panic based on the number of people infected and deaths due to COVID-19. This paper aims to examine the interconnection or interdependencies between the GFI and a set of global indexes related to the financial and economic activities associated with natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining, such as: the S&P Global Resource Index, the S&P Global Agribusiness Equity Index, the S&P Global Metals and Mining Index, and the S&P Global 1200 Energy Index. To this end, we first apply several common tests: Wald exponential, Wald mean, Nyblom, and Quandt Likelihood Ratio. Subsequently, we apply Granger causality using a DCC-GARCH model. Data for the global indices are daily from 3 February 2020 to 29 October 2021. The empirical results obtained show that the volatility of the GFI Granger causes the volatility of the other global indices, except for the Global Resource Index. Moreover, by considering heteroskedasticity and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that the GFI can be used to predict the co-movement of the time series of all the global indices. Additionally, we quantify the causal interdependencies between the GFI and each of the S&P global indices using Shannon and Rényi transfer entropy flow, which is comparable to Granger causality, to confirm directionality more robustly The main conclusion of this research is that financial and economic activity related to natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining were affected by the fear/panic caused by COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The COVID-19 economic shutdown and the future of flexible workplace practices in the South Bay region of Los Angeles County.

The COVID-19 lockdown has increased the use of flexible workplace practices (FWP) especially work from home, demonstrating their importance to the resilience of transportation systems and regional economies. This study compares experiences and perceptions of FWP and related policy interventions before and during the COVID-19 shutdown, using a mixed-methods approach focusing on the South Bay region of Los Angeles County, to inform projections about the use of FWP and policy implications post-COVID. Pre-shutdown surveys and focus groups interviews confirmed that major obstacles to FWP expansion were a combination of managerial and executive resistance, alongside occupational constraints. Pre-shutdown interviews suggested that costs associated with manager training and cultural transition are major concerns for executives. A small sample of follow-up interviews with executives, managers, and staff, conducted during the shutdown period has revealed some of the practical issues with full-time FWP such as work-life balance, childcare, productivity, IT hardware and software, and network connectivity. Although organizations have been forced into flexible arrangements, many are considering continuing to utilize the practices after the pandemic settles down. In terms of policy interventions, pre-COVID participants perceived government subsidies and incentives as the most desirable government programs. However, in a resource-constrained post-COVID world, policy makers might instead focus on training programs and promotional campaigns tied to public health messaging, and the implications of reduced commuting for transportation system design and commercial zoning and land use.

Transfer Entropy Granger Causality between News Indices and Stock Markets in U.S. and Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The relationship between three different groups of COVID-19 news series and stock market volatility for several Latin American countries and the U.S. are analyzed. To confirm the relationship between these series, a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) was applied to determine the specific periods wherein each pair of series is significantly correlated. To determine if the news series cause Latin American stock markets' volatility, a one-sided Granger causality test based on transfer entropy (GC-TE) was applied. The results confirm that the U.S. and Latin American stock markets react differently to COVID-19 news. Some of the most statistically significant results were obtained from the reporting case index (RCI), A-COVID index, and uncertainty index, in that order, which are statistically significant for the majority of Latin American stock markets. Altogether, the results suggest these COVID-19 news indices could be used to forecast stock market volatility in the U.S. and Latin America.