Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health. METHODS: We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070. FINDINGS: Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health. INTERPRETATION: Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades. FUNDING: German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of venomous Conus (Gastropoda: Conidae) species in the Indo-Pacific region.

Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.

Venomous animals in a changing world.

The climatic changes of the next decades will modify human and livestock interactions with venomous animals; Some venomous species will disappear in the coming decades; Other venomous species will shift their distributions or increase their geographic ranges invading new countries that may not have specific antivenoms.

Vulnerable areas to accidents with scorpions in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify areas that present a higher risk of exposure to accidents with scorpions in Brazil. METHODS: We used techniques of spatial prioritisation to determine the most vulnerable localities to envenomation by four scorpion species. Our prioritisation integrated ecological niche models with health investment, antivenin availability, access to health care facilities and metrics of human impact data. RESULTS: The ecological niche models indicated that three scorpion species (Tityus bahiensis, Tityus serrulatus, and Tityus stigmurus) are more associated with human population density, while T. obscurus demonstrated a strong association with temperature variations during the year. Spatial prioritisation indicated that the areas with higher risk exposure to accidents with scorpions are in northern and northeastern Brazil. Alternatively, more isolated but densely populated areas in the southeastern and central regions also emerged as a priority. CONCLUSION: Mapping areas where humans are more likely to interact with scorpions can assist in the design of efficient public health policies.

Biophysical Modeling of Water Economy Can Explain Geographic Gradient of Body Size in Anurans.

Geographical gradients of body size express climate-driven constraints on animals, but whether they exist and what causes them in ectotherms remains contentious. For amphibians, the water conservation hypothesis posits that larger bodies reduce evaporative water loss (EWL) along dehydrating gradients. To address this hypothesis mechanistically, we build on well-established biophysical equations of water exchange in anurans to propose a state-transition model that predicts an increase of either body size or resistance to EWL as alternative specialization along dehydrating gradients. The model predicts that species whose water economy is more sensitive to variation in body size than to variation in resistance to EWL should increase in size in response to increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET). To evaluate the model predictions, we combine physiological measurements of resistance to EWL with geographic data of body size for four different anuran species. Only one species, Dendropsophus minutus, was predicted to exhibit a positive body size-PET relationship. Results were as predicted for all cases, with one species-Boana faber-showing a negative relationship. Based on an empirically verified mathematical model, we show that clines of body size among anurans depend on the current values of those traits and emerge as an advantage for water conservation. Our model offers a mechanistic and compelling explanation for the cause and variation of gradients of body size in anurans.

Morphological and molecular analyses confirm the occurrence of two sympatric Lysmata shrimp (Crustacea, Decapoda) in the southwestern Atlantic.

An integrative approach was used, combining morphological and molecular analyses, to provide the first report of Lysmata lipkei and L. vittata in Sergipe State, Brazil, and confirm that both species are invasive of the Atlantic Ocean. Lysmata shrimps were sampled in the estuary region of the Vaza-Barris river, Sergipe State, northeastern Brazil, and identified as L. lipkei (n = 8) and L. vittata (n = 20). To molecular phylogenetic analysis was used 16S DNA fragments, comparing 26 species of the Lysmata-Exhippolysmata clade and two species of the genus Merguia (outgroup). Phylogenetic analysis indicated the absence of consistent genetic divergence (p distance < 0.018) between specimens from Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceans. We conclude that L. lipkei and L. vittata have successfully invaded the western Atlantic and are also present in Sergipe State, northeastern Brazil.

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.

Extending the paleontology-biogeography reciprocity with SDMs: Exploring models and data in reducing fossil taxonomic uncertainty.

Historically, studies aimed at prospecting and analyzing paleontological and neontological data to investigate species distribution have developed separately. Research at the interface between paleontology and biogeography has shown a unidirectional bias, mostly focusing on how paleontological information can aid biogeography to understand species distribution through time. However, the modern suit of techniques of ecological biogeography, particularly species distribution models (SDM), can be instrumental for paleontologists as well, improving the biogeography-paleontology interchange. In this study, we explore how to use paleoclimatic data and SDMs to support paleontological investigation regarding reduction of taxonomic uncertainty. Employing current data from two neotropical species (Lagostomus maximus and Myocastor coipus), we implemented SDMs and performed model validation comparing hindcasts with dated fossil occurrences (~14k and ~20k years back present, respectively). Finally, we employed the hindcasting process for two South American fossil records of a misidentified species of caiman (Caiman sp.) to show that C. latirostris is the most likely species identity of these fossils (among four candidate species: C. latirostris, C. yacare, C. crocodilus, and Melanosuchus niger). Possible limitations of the approach are discussed. With this strategy, we have shown that current developments in biogeography research can favour paleontology, extending the (biased) current interchange between these two scientific disciplines.

Climatic suitability, isolation by distance and river resistance explain genetic variation in a Brazilian whiptail lizard.

Spatial patterns of genetic variation can help understand how environmental factors either permit or restrict gene flow and create opportunities for regional adaptations. Organisms from harsh environments such as the Brazilian semiarid Caatinga biome may reveal how severe climate conditions may affect patterns of genetic variation. Herein we combine information from mitochondrial DNA with physical and environmental features to study the association between different aspects of the Caatinga landscape and spatial genetic variation in the whiptail lizard Ameivula ocellifera. We investigated which of the climatic, environmental, geographical and/or historical components best predict: (1) the spatial distribution of genetic diversity, and (2) the genetic differentiation among populations. We found that genetic variation in A. ocellifera has been influenced mainly by temperature variability, which modulates connectivity among populations. Past climate conditions were important for shaping current genetic diversity, suggesting a time lag in genetic responses. Population structure in A. ocellifera was best explained by both isolation by distance and isolation by resistance (main rivers). Our findings indicate that both physical and climatic features are important for explaining the observed patterns of genetic variation across the xeric Caatinga biome.

Trends on the Karyotype Acrocentrization Within Carangidae (Perciformes): A New Phylogenetic Evidence About a Traditional Marine Paradigm.

Carangidae is a morphologically diverse family of marine fish, characterized by stable karyotypes, predominantly with 2n = 48, composed of acrocentric chromosomes (A). This stability is shared with other families of the order Perciformes, which resulted in the hypothesis that 48A is a plesiomorphic karyotype of the group. We tested this hypothesis in the Carangidae family using comparative phylogenetic methods, investigating the evolution of karyotype characters (including chromosome number, morphology, and number of chromosome arms per karyotype [fundamental number, FN]). Our analyses revealed that 2n = 48 is most likely the ancestral chromosome number for the family. However, an extremely variable number of FNs, always above 48, was observed in basal clades within the family and sister groups. On the other hand, the reduced FN = 48 was consistently observed only in the most derived clades, indicating a tendency for acrocentrization. The number of acrocentric chromosomes apparently was accompanied by a trend of reduction in the genome size (1C-value), suggesting that these changes might be correlated. Our data contradict the marine fish hypothesis that the 2n = 48 acrocentric karyotype is plesiomorphic, at least for Carangidae, and reveal the importance for the correct interpretation of karyotype in a temporal and phylogenetic context.

Comparative cytogenetics and heterochromatic patterns in two species of the genus Acanthostracion (Ostraciidae: Tetraodontiformes).

Some groups of fish, such as those belonging to the Order Tetraodontiformes, may differ significantly in the amount and location of heterochromatin in the chromosomes. There is a marked variation in DNA content of more than seven-fold among the families of this Order. However, the karyoevolutionary mechanisms responsible for this variation are essentially unknown. The largest genomic contents are present in species of the family Ostraciidae (2.20-2.60pg). The present study cytogenetically characterized two species of the family Ostraciidae, Acanthostracion polygonius and A. quadricornis, using conventional staining, C-bandings, Ag-NOR, CMA(3)/DAPI, AluI, PstI, EcoRI, TaqI and HinfI restriction enzymes (REs) and double FISH with 18S and 5S rDNA probes. The karyotypes of both species showed 2n=52 acrocentric chromosomes (FN=52; chromosome arms) and pronounced conserved structural characteristics. A significant heterochromatic content was observed equilocally distributed in pericentromeric position in all the chromosome pairs. This condition is unusual in relation to the karyotypes of other families of Tetraodontiformes and probability is the cause of the higher DNA content in Ostraciidae. Given the role played by repetitive sequences in the genomic reorganization of this Order, it is suggested that the conspicuous heterochromatic blocks, present in the same chromosomal position and with apparently similar composition, may have arisen or undergo evolutionary changes in concert providing clues about the chromosomal mechanisms which led to extensive variation in genomic content of different Tetraodontiformes families.

Cytogenetic characterization of three Balistoidea fish species from the Atlantic with inferences on chromosomal evolution in the families Monacanthidae and Balistidae.

The Tetraodontiformes are the most derived group of teleostean fish. Among other apomorphies, they are characterized by a high degree of fusions or significant bone loss in the head and body. In the early phylogenetic proposals presented for this order, the families Balistidae and Monacanthidae have been unanimously considered to be closely related. Although they have moderate species diversity, they are scarcely known in cytogenetic aspect and chromosomal pattern comparisons between these groups have yet to be established. The species Cantherhines macrocerus (Hollard,1853), Cantherhines pullus (Ranzani, 1842) (Monacanthidae) and Melichthys niger (Bloch, 1786) (Balistidae) were cytogenetically analyzed using conventional (Ag-impregnation, C-banding, CMA3- and DAPI-fluorescence) and molecular (FISH with an 18S rDNA probe) cytogenetic protocols. The karyotypes of all three species were very similar possessing diploid chromosome numbers 2n = 40 and composed exclusively of acrocentric chromosomes. Single NOR-bearing pair as well as positive heterochromatic blocks at pericentromeric regions were identified in the karyotypes of the three species studied. NOR-bearing sites were positively labeled after Ag-impregnation, C-banding, CMA3-fluorescence and FISH with an 18S rDNA probe but were negative after DAPI-fluorescence. Such remarkable shared conspicuous chromosomal characters corroborate either close phylogenetic relationship of these families, previously established by morphological and molecular data, or rather conservative nature of karyotype differentiation processes. The later hypothesis, however, appears less probable due to centric or in tandem fusions documented for another Balistoidea species.

Derived cytogenetic traits, multiple NORs and B chromosomes in the compact karyotype of Canthigaster figueiredoi (Tetraodontiformes).

The Tetraodontiformes are one of the main irradiation lineages of Teleosts representing a highly specialized group. Among its families, Tetraodontidae has the lowest DNA/cell content of the vertebrates, and for this reason has been used as a model group for genomic evolution studies. Seeking to widen the cytogenetic database of this family, we performed a chromosomal analysis of the species Canthigaster figueiredoi using conventional staining, Ag-NORs, C-banding, base-specific fluorochromes DAPI-CMA(3), and in situ hybridization with 18S rDNA probe. This species has 2n=36 (10 m+6sm+20a; FN=52). Multiple Ag-NORs (CMA(3)(+)) sites were detected on the four chromosome pairs. Heterochromatic blocks (CMA(3)(+)) were present in the centromeric regions of most of the pairs, extending on the short arm of some chromosomes. A GC-positive polymorphic heterochromatic region was identified in some of the individuals, in one or both of the homologs of the 6th pair. The presence of heteromorphic B microchromosomes was detected in the karyotype of one female, exhibiting intra-individual variation of 0-3 Bs. The occurrence of heterochromatic polymorphisms, multiple NORs, and B chromosomes in C. figueiredoi are very infrequent events in marine fish. They are probably associated to the accentuated restructuring and genomic reduction suffered by this family.