Estimating global and regional disruptions to routine childhood vaccine coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission substantially affected health services worldwide. To better understand the impact of the pandemic on childhood routine immunisation, we estimated disruptions in vaccine coverage associated with the pandemic in 2020, globally and by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) super-region. METHODS: For this analysis we used a two-step hierarchical random spline modelling approach to estimate global and regional disruptions to routine immunisation using administrative data and reports from electronic immunisation systems, with mobility data as a model input. Paired with estimates of vaccine coverage expected in the absence of COVID-19, which were derived from vaccine coverage models from GBD 2020, Release 1 (GBD 2020 R1), we estimated the number of children who missed routinely delivered doses of the third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in 2020. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, estimated vaccine coverage was 76·7% (95% uncertainty interval 74·3-78·6) for DTP3 and 78·9% (74·8-81·9) for MCV1, representing relative reductions of 7·7% (6·0-10·1) for DTP3 and 7·9% (5·2-11·7) for MCV1, compared to expected doses delivered in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. From January to December, 2020, we estimated that 30·0 million (27·6-33·1) children missed doses of DTP3 and 27·2 million (23·4-32·5) children missed MCV1 doses. Compared to expected gaps in coverage for eligible children in 2020, these estimates represented an additional 8·5 million (6·5-11·6) children not routinely vaccinated with DTP3 and an additional 8·9 million (5·7-13·7) children not routinely vaccinated with MCV1 attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, monthly disruptions were highest in April, 2020, across all GBD super-regions, with 4·6 million (4·0-5·4) children missing doses of DTP3 and 4·4 million (3·7-5·2) children missing doses of MCV1. Every GBD super-region saw reductions in vaccine coverage in March and April, with the most severe annual impacts in north Africa and the Middle East, south Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimated the lowest annual reductions in vaccine delivery in sub-Saharan Africa, where disruptions remained minimal throughout the year. For some super-regions, including southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania for both DTP3 and MCV1, the high-income super-region for DTP3, and south Asia for MCV1, estimates suggest that monthly doses were delivered at or above expected levels during the second half of 2020. INTERPRETATION: Routine immunisation services faced stark challenges in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing the most widespread and largest global disruption in recent history. Although the latest coverage trajectories point towards recovery in some regions, a combination of lagging catch-up immunisation services, continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and persistent gaps in vaccine coverage before the pandemic still left millions of children under-vaccinated or unvaccinated against preventable diseases at the end of 2020, and these gaps are likely to extend throughout 2021. Strengthening routine immunisation data systems and efforts to target resources and outreach will be essential to minimise the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks, reach children who missed routine vaccine doses during the pandemic, and accelerate progress towards higher and more equitable vaccination coverage over the next decade. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Homicídios na região das Américas: magnitude, distribuição e tendências, 1999-2009 / Homicides in the Americas region: magnitude, distribution and trends, 1999-2009

O objetivo do estudo foi descrever a magnitude e a distribuição da mortalidade por homicídios nas Américas e analisar suas tendências. Foram analisados óbitos por homicídios (X85 a Y09 e Y35) de 32 países das Américas, período 1999-2009, registrados no Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade/Organização Pan Americana da Saúde. Utilizou-se modelo binomial negativo para estudar as tendências. Cerca de 121.297 mortes por homicídios (89% homens e 11% mulheres) ocorreram anualmente nas Américas, predominando as idades de 15 a 24 e de 25 a 39 anos. Em 2009, a taxa padronizada de homicídios da região foi 15,5/100.000. Os países com taxas/100.000 baixas foram Canadá (1,8), Argentina (4,4), Cuba (4,8), Chile (5,2) e Estados Unidos (5,8); e com taxas/100.000 altas foram El Salvador (62,9), Guatemala (51,2), Colômbia (42,5), Venezuela (33,2) e Porto Rico (25,8). Entre 1999-2009 as taxas da região permaneceram estáveis; aumentaram em nove países, como Venezuela (p < 0,001), Panamá (p < 0,001), El Salvador (p < 0,001) e Porto Rico (p < 0,001); diminuíram em quatro países, especialmente na Colômbia (p < 0,001); e permaneceram estáveis no Brasil, Estados Unidos, Equador e Chile. O aumento no México ocorreu no período mais recente. Apesar dos esforços empreendidos, diversos países têm taxas altas de homicídios e crescimento nas mesmas.

The scope of this study was to describe the magnitude and distribution of deaths by homicide in the Americas and to analyze the prevailing trends. Deaths by homicide (X85 to Y09 and Y35) were analyzed in 32 countries of the Americas Region from 1999 to 2009, recorded in the Mortality Information System/Pan American Health Organization. A negative binomial model was used to study the trends. There were around 121,297 homicides (89% men and 11% women) in the Americas, annually, predominantly in the 15 to 24 and 25 to 39 year age brackets. In 2009 the homicide age-adjusted mortality rate was 15.5/100,000 in the region. Countries with lower rates/100,000 were Canada (1.8), Argentina (4.4), Cuba (4.8), Chile (5.2), and the United States (5.8), whereas the highest rates/100,000 were in El Salvador (62.9), Guatemala (51.2), Colombia (42.5), Venezuela (33.2), and Puerto Rico (25.8). From 1999-2009, the homicide trend in the region was stable. They increased in nine countries: Venezuela (p<0.001), Panama (p<0.001), El Salvador (p<0.001), Puerto Rico (p<0.001); decreased in four countries, particularly in Colombia (p<0.001); and were stable in Brazil, the United States, Ecuador and Chile. The increase in Mexico occurred in recent years. Despite all efforts, various countries have high homicide rates and they are on the increase.

[Homicides in the Americas region: magnitude, distribution and trends, 1999-2009]. / Homicídios na região das Américas:magnitude, distribuição e tendências, 1999-2009

The scope of this study was to describe the magnitude and distribution of deaths by homicide in the Americas and to analyze the prevailing trends. Deaths by homicide (X85 to Y09 and Y35) were analyzed in 32 countries of the Americas Region from 1999 to 2009, recorded in the Mortality Information System/Pan American Health Organization. A negative binomial model was used to study the trends. There were around 121,297 homicides (89% men and 11% women) in the Americas, annually, predominantly in the 15 to 24 and 25 to 39 year age brackets. In 2009 the homicide age-adjusted mortality rate was 15.5/100,000 in the region. Countries with lower rates/100,000 were Canada (1.8), Argentina (4.4), Cuba (4.8), Chile (5.2), and the United States (5.8), whereas the highest rates/100,000 were in El Salvador (62.9), Guatemala (51.2), Colombia (42.5), Venezuela (33.2), and Puerto Rico (25.8). From 1999-2009, the homicide trend in the region was stable. They increased in nine countries: Venezuela (p<0.001), Panama (p<0.001), El Salvador (p<0.001), Puerto Rico (p<0.001); decreased in four countries, particularly in Colombia (p<0.001); and were stable in Brazil, the United States, Ecuador and Chile. The increase in Mexico occurred in recent years. Despite all efforts, various countries have high homicide rates and they are on the increase.

Los sistemas de información geográfica como herramienta para monitorear las desigualdades de salud / Geographic information systems as a tool for monitoring health inequalities

OBJECTIVE: To show how geographic information systems (GISs) can be used as technological tools to support health policy and public health actions. METHODS: We assessed the relationship between infant mortality and a number of socio-economic and geographic determinants. In explaining how GISs are applied, we stressed their ability to integrate data, which makes it possible to perform epidemiologic evaluations in a simpler, faster, automated way that simultaneously analyzes multiple variables with different levels of aggregation. In this study, GISs were applied in analyzing infant mortality data with three levels of aggregation in countries of the Americas from 1995 to 2000. RESULTS: Infant mortality in the Region of the Americas was estimated at an overall average of 24.4 deaths per 1,000 live births. However, the inequalities that were found indicate that the probability of an infant death is almost 20 times greater in the less developed countries of the Region than in more developed ones. Mapping infant mortality throughout the Region of the Americas allowed us to identify the countries that need to focus more attention on health policy and health programs, but not to determine what specific actions are of the highest priority. An analysis of smaller geopolitical units (states and municipalities) revealed important differences within countries. This shows that, as is true of data for the entire Region of the Americas, using national-level average figures for indicators can obscure the differences that exist within countries. When we examined the relationship between female illiteracy and malnutrition as determinants of infant mortality in Brazil and Ecuador, we identified social and epidemiologic strata where risk factors had different distribution patterns and that thus require health interventions that match their individual social and epidemiologic profiles. CONCLUSIONS: With this type of epidemiologic study using GISs at the local...

OBJETIVOS: Mostrar la aplicación de los sistemas de información geográfica (SIG) como instrumento tecnológico para apoyar las actividades en las áreas de política sanitaria y salud pública. MÉTODOS: Se evaluó la relación entre la mortalidad infantil y diversos factores determinantes de carácter socioeconómico y geográfico. Al ilustrar la aplicación, se hace hincapié en la capacidad integradora de los SIG, que permite simplificar, agilizar y automatizar la evaluación epidemiológica, tomando en cuenta el análisis múltiple simultáneo de variables determinantes con diferentes niveles de agregación. La aplicación de los SIG abarcó, en este estudio, el análisis de la mortalidad infantil en tres niveles de agregación en países de las Américas entre 1995 y 2000. RESULTADOS: La mortalidad infantil estimada para la Región tuvo un promedio de 24,4 defunciones por 1 000 nacidos vivos, pero las desigualdades observadas indican que la probabilidad de una muerte infantil es casi 20 veces mayor en los países de menos recursos que en los más prósperos. El mapeo de la mortalidad infantil a escala regional permitió identificar los países que requieren mayor atención en sus políticas y programas de salud, pero no distinguir dónde se requerían acciones más prioritarias. Un análisis de las unidades geopolíticas más pequeñas (estados y municipios) reveló importantes diferencias dentro de los países y permitió reproducir el patrón de desigualdad regional, que no se ve reflejado por el valor promedio de los indicadores a escala nacional. Al analizarse la relación entre el analfabetismo femenino y la desnutrición como factores determinantes de la mortalidad infantil en Brasil y Ecuador, se identificaron estratos sociales y epidemiológicos con distribuciones diferenciales de factores de riesgo que requieren intervenciones sanitarias adecuadas para sus respectivos perfiles socioepidemiológicos. CONCLUSIONES: Gracias a este tipo de análisis epidemiológico a escala local...

[Geographic information systems as a tool for monitoring health inequalities]. / Los sistemas de información geográfica como herramienta para monitorear las desigualdades de salud.

OBJECTIVE: To show how geographic information systems (GISs) can be used as technological tools to support health policy and public health actions. METHODS: We assessed the relationship between infant mortality and a number of socio-economic and geographic determinants. In explaining how GISs are applied, we stressed their ability to integrate data, which makes it possible to perform epidemiologic evaluations in a simpler, faster, automated way that simultaneously analyzes multiple variables with different levels of aggregation. In this study, GISs were applied in analyzing infant mortality data with three levels of aggregation in countries of the Americas from 1995 to 2000. RESULTS: Infant mortality in the Region of the Americas was estimated at an overall average of 24.4 deaths per 1,000 live births. However, the inequalities that were found indicate that the probability of an infant death is almost 20 times greater in the less developed countries of the Region than in more developed ones. Mapping infant mortality throughout the Region of the Americas allowed us to identify the countries that need to focus more attention on health policy and health programs, but not to determine what specific actions are of the highest priority. An analysis of smaller geopolitical units (states and municipalities) revealed important differences within countries. This shows that, as is true of data for the entire Region of the Americas, using national-level average figures for indicators can obscure the differences that exist within countries. When we examined the relationship between female illiteracy and malnutrition as determinants of infant mortality in Brazil and Ecuador, we identified social and epidemiologic strata where risk factors had different distribution patterns and that thus require health interventions that match their individual social and epidemiologic profiles. CONCLUSIONS: With this type of epidemiologic study using GISs at the local level of health services, it is easy to see how a health event and its risk factors behave at a specific period in time. It is also possible to identify patterns in the spatial distribution of risk factors and in these factors' potential impact on health. Using GISs in an appropriate way will make it easier to deliver more effective, equitable public health services.

Sistema automatizado de control a viajeros internacionales / Automated control system to international travelers

Se presenta la concepción y el diseño del Sistema Automatizado de Control a Viajeros Internacionales, y se describe el soporte técnico sobre el cual ha sido implantado

Sistema automatizado de control a viajeros internacionales / Autoated control system to international travelers

Se presenta la concepción y el diseño del Sistema Automatizado de Control a Viajeros Internacionales, y se describe el soporte técnico sobre el cual ha sido implantado