Defining and Assessing the Reproducibility of Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Lesions: A Delphi-like Method from the GETAID.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Defining and assessing the reproducibility of Crohn's disease [CD] endoscopic lesions is essential in assessing endoscopic healing. METHODS: Twelve endoscopic CD experts from the GETAID defined aphthoid erosions [AE], superficial ulcerations [SU], deep ulcerations [DU], stenosis, and fistulas according to a Delphi-like method. Thirty different GETAID physicians declared if they found acceptable each definition. Intra- and inter-observer agreements were investigated using 100 videos with one tagged specific lesion [AE, SU, DU, or sham lesion] read by 15 independent endoscopists at baseline and 1 month later in a randomised order. Video quality was determined by an external reader. According to kappa estimate [κ ±standard error], intra or inter-observer agreement was qualified as 'moderate' [0.4-0.6], 'substantial' [0.6-0.8], or 'almost perfect' [0.8-1.0]. RESULTS: Among 30 different experts, 83% to 97% found acceptable the definitions retrieved from the Delphi-like method. Intra-observer κ was 0.717 [±0.019] for SU, 0.681 [±0.027] for AE, 0.856 [±0.014] for DU, showing 'substantial' agreement. It was 0.801 [±0.016] for any ulceration [DU or SU]. There was a high variability across readers from 'moderate' to 'almost perfect' agreement. Inter-observer κ was 0.548 [±0.042] for SU, 0.554 [±0.028] for AE 0.694 [±0.041] for DU, and 0.705 [±0.042] for any ulceration. Inter-observer agreement increased when reading the 53 high-quality videos: 0.787 [±0.064] [p = 0.001], 0.607 [±0.043] [p = 0.001], and 0.782 [±0.064][p = 0.001] for DU, AE, and any ulceration, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite variable intra-agreement level across readers, the GETAID definitions for CD endoscopic lesions provided 'substantial' inter-observer agreements, especially in case of high-quality videos.

Long-term outcome of patients with steroid-refractory acute severe UC treated with ciclosporin or infliximab.

OBJECTIVE: Ciclosporin and infliximab have demonstrated short-term similar efficacy as second-line therapies in patients with acute severe UC (ASUC) refractory to intravenous steroids. The aim of this study was to assess long-term outcome of patients included in a randomised trial comparing ciclosporin and infliximab. DESIGN: Between 2007 and 2010, 115 patients with steroid-refractory ASUC were randomised in 29 European centres to receive ciclosporin or infliximab in association with azathioprine. Patients were followed until death or last news up to January 2015. Colectomy-free survival rates at 1 and 5 years and changes in therapy were estimated through Kaplan-Meier method and compared between initial treatment groups through log-rank test. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.4 years, colectomy-free survival rates (95% CI) at 1 and 5 years were, respectively, 70.9% (59.2% to 82.6%) and 61.5% (48.7% to 74.2%) in patients who received ciclosporin and 69.1% (56.9% to 81.3%) and 65.1% (52.4% to 77.8%) in those who received infliximab (p=0.97). Cumulative incidence of first infliximab use at 1 and 5 years in patients initially treated with ciclosporin was, respectively, 45.7% (32.6% to 57.9%) and 57.1% (43.0% to 69.0%). Only four patients from the infliximab group were subsequently switched to ciclosporin. Three patients died during the follow-up, none directly related to UC or its treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with steroid-refractory ASUC initially treated by ciclosporin or infliximab, long-term colectomy-free survival was independent from initial treatment. These long-term results further confirm a similar efficacy and good safety profiles of both drugs and do not favour one drug over the other. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT: 2006-005299-42; ClinicalTrials.gouv number: NCT00542152; post-results.

Defining endoscopic response and remission in ulcerative colitis clinical trials: an international consensus.

BACKGROUND: Recently, endpoints for clinical trials have been changing from measuring clinical response to mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis. Endoscopic evaluation is the current gold standard to assess mucosal lesions and has become a major measure of therapeutic efficacy in addition to patients reported outcomes. AIM: To achieve consensus on endoscopic definitions of remission and response for clinical trials in patients with ulcerative colitis. METHODS: In reaching the current international recommendations on an International Organization For the Study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD) initiative, we first performed a systematic review of technical aspects of endoscopic scoring systems. Then, to achieve consensus on endoscopic definitions of remission and response for clinical trials, we conducted a two-round vote using a Delphi-style process among fifteen specialists in the field of inflammatory bowel diseases. RESULTS: The literature review showed that many endoscopic indices have been proposed to evaluate disease activity in ulcerative colitis; most are unvalidated and arbitrary definitions have been used in clinical trials for defining endoscopic response or remission. At the end of the voting process, the investigators ranked initially the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) 0 for the definition of endoscopic remission, and a decrease in Mayo endoscopic score ≥1 grade or a decrease in UCEIS ≥2 points for the definition of endoscopic response in ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: These international recommendations represent the first consensus on measurement indices for endoscopic outcomes in ulcerative colitis. They should be subject to prospective testing in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis.

IOIBD technical review on endoscopic indices for Crohn's disease clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic disabling and progressive IBD. Only strategies looking beyond symptoms and based on tight monitoring of objective signs of inflammation such as mucosal lesions may have the potential for disease modification. Endoscopic evaluation is currently the gold standard to assess mucosal lesions and has become a major therapeutic endpoint in clinical trials. Several endoscopic indices have been proposed to evaluate disease activity; unvalidated and arbitrary definitions have been used in clinical trials for defining endoscopic response and endoscopic remission in CD. METHODS: In these recommendations from the International Organization for the Study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease, we first reviewed all technical aspects of available endoscopic scoring systems in the literature. Second, in order to achieve consensus on endoscopic definitions of remission and response in trials, a two-round vote based on a Delphi method was performed among 14 specialists in the field of IBDs. RESULTS: At the end of the voting process, the investigators ranked first a >50% decrease in Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) or Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity for the definition of endoscopic response, and an SES-CD 0-2 for the definition of endoscopic remission in CD. All experts agreed on a Rutgeerts' score i0-i1 for the definition of endoscopic remission after surgery.

Successive treatment with cyclosporine and infliximab in steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis.

OBJECTIVES: Rescue therapy with either cyclosporine (CYS) or infliximab (IFX) is an effective option in patients with intravenous steroid-refractory attacks of ulcerative colitis (UC). In patients who fail, colectomy is usually recommended, but a second-line rescue therapy with IFX or CYS is an alternative. The aims of this study were to investigate the efficacy and tolerance of IFX and CYS as a second-line rescue therapy in steroid-refractory UC or indeterminate colitis (IC) unsuccessfully treated with CYS or IFX. METHODS: This was a retrospective survey of patients seen during the period 2000-2008 in the GETAID centers. Inclusion criteria included a delay of <1 month between CYS withdrawal (when used first) and IFX, or a delay of <2 months between IFX (when used first) and CYS, and a follow-up of at least 3 months after inclusion. Time-to-colectomy, clinical response, and occurrence of serious adverse events were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients (median age 34 years; 49 males; 71 UC and 15 IC) were successively treated with CYS and IFX. The median (± s.e.) follow-up time was 22.6 (7.0) months. During the study period, 49 patients failed to respond to the second-line rescue therapy and underwent a colectomy. The probability of colectomy-free survival (± s.e.) was 61.3 ± 5.3% at 3 months and 41.3 ± 5.6 % at 12 months. A case of fatal pulmonary embolism occurred at 1 day after surgery in a 45-year-old man. Also, nine infectious complications were observed during the second-line rescue therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with intravenous steroid-refractory UC and who fail to respond to CYS or IFX, a second-line rescue therapy may be effective in carefully selected patients, avoiding colectomy within 2 months in two-thirds of them. The risk/benefit ratio should still be considered individually.

[Multiple imputation of missing at random data: General points and presentation of a Monte-Carlo method]. / L'imputation multiple des données manquantes aléatoirement : concepts généraux et présentation d'une méthode Monte-Carlo.

BACKGROUND: Statistical analysis of a data set with missing data is a frequent problem to deal with in epidemiology. Methods are available to manage incomplete observations, avoiding biased estimates and improving their precision, compared to more traditional methods, such as the analysis of the sub-sample of complete observations. METHODS: One of these approaches is multiple imputation, which consists in imputing successively several values for each missing data item. Several completed data sets having the same distribution characteristics as the observed data (variability and correlations) are thus generated. Standard analyses are done separately on each completed dataset then combined to obtain a global result. In this paper, we discuss the various assumptions made on the origin of missing data (at random or not), and we present in a pragmatic way the process of multiple imputation. A recent method, Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), based on a Monte-Carlo Markov Chain algorithm under missing at random data (MAR) hypothesis, is described. An illustrative example of the MICE method is detailed for the analysis of the relation between a dichotomous variable and two covariates presenting MAR data with no particular structure, through multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Compared with the original dataset without missing data, the results show a substantial improvement of the regression coefficient estimates with the MICE method, relatively to those obtained on the dataset with complete observations. CONCLUSION: This method does not require any direct assumption on joint distribution of the variables and it is presently implemented in standard statistical software (Splus, Stata). It can be used for multiple imputation of missing data of several variables with no particular structure.

Assessing the reliability of four severity scales depicting skin ageing features.

BACKGROUND: Photographic severity scales depicting facial wrinkling are used extensively to assess the severity of skin ageing features, but they have been poorly investigated for their reproducibility. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the reproducibility of ordinal scales depicting four skin ageing features illustrated by reference photographs. METHODS: A set of 253 images of caucasian women's faces was evaluated independently by four dermatologists using four different skin ageing severity scales: Larnier's overall photodamage, expression lines, glabellar frown lines, and wrinkles under the eyes. For each pair of dermatologists, degree of agreement was estimated using the weighted kappa statistic and degrees of distinguishability between adjacent categories along these scales were estimated using a recently developed log-linear method. RESULTS: The kappa statistic highlighted substantial degrees of agreement between dermatologists for the glabellar frown lines scale, and the log-linear method did not evidence any scale defect. For the three other scales, only fair to moderate degrees of agreement were observed between dermatologists. In addition, difficulties in distinguishing between some adjacent categories were evidenced. CONCLUSIONS: The glabellar frown lines scale is a reproducible tool for assessment of the severity of facial wrinkling. The other scales should be redefined to improve their reproducibility, and therefore their quality, in future studies.

Prevention of relapse by mesalazine (Pentasa) in pediatric Crohn's disease: a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

AIM: This study aimed to test the efficacy of mesalazine in maintaining remission in pediatric Crohn's disease (CD) following successful flare-up treatment. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, 122 patients received either mesalazine 50mg/kg per day (n=60) or placebo (n=62) for one year. Treatment allocation was stratified according to flare-up treatment (nutrition or medication alone). Recruitment was carried out over two periods, as the first period's results showed a trend favoring mesalazine. Relapse was defined as a Harvey-Bradshaw score more than or equal to 5. Time to relapse was analyzed using the Cox model. RESULTS: The one-year relapse rate was 57% (n=29) and 63% (n=35) in the mesalazine and placebo groups, respectively. We demonstrated a twofold lower relapse risk (P<0.02) in patients taking mesalazine in the medication stratum (first recruitment period), and a twofold higher risk in patients taking mesalazine in the nutrition stratum (second recruitment period), compared with the other groups. None of the children's characteristics, which differed across the two recruitment periods, accounted for the between-period variation in mesalazine efficacy. One serious adverse event was reported in each treatment group. CONCLUSION: Overall, mesalazine does not appear to be an effective maintenance treatment in pediatric CD.

Nodular regenerative hyperplasia in patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated with azathioprine.

AIM: To assess the characteristics and clinical course of nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated with azathioprine, so as to estimate the frequency of this complication and search for risk factors. METHODS: Cases were identified through a systematic survey of patients followed at 11 centres. At one centre, the cumulative risk of NRH was estimated and a case-control study was undertaken to identify risk factors. RESULTS: 37 cases of NRH (30 male, 7 female) were identified between 1994 and 2005. The median dose of azathioprine was 2 mg/kg/d (range 1.5 to 3.0). The median time between the start of azathioprine and the diagnosis of NRH was 48 months (range 6 to 187). After a median follow up period of 16 months (range 1 to 138), 14 patients developed complications of portal hypertension. Using multivariate analysis, male sex and stricturing behaviour were the two risk factors associated with NRH in patients treated with azathioprine. The cumulative risk calculated from the database (one centre) was 0.5% at 5 years (95% confidence interval, 0.11 to 0.89) and 1.25% at 10 years (0.29 to 2.21). CONCLUSIONS: NRH is a rare but potentially severe complication of azathioprine in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Clinicians should be aware of this complication, and should monitor liver function tests and platelet counts closely in their patients.

Characterization of the main placental cytokine profiles from HIV-1-infected pregnant women treated with anti-retroviral drugs in France.

Cytokines are involved in regulating HIV-1 infection. They are also placental environment major components. We assessed the potential impact of HIV-1 infection and/or anti-retroviral drugs on the placental cytokine profiles that may be involved in controlling HIV-1 placental dissemination. Placental explants were obtained after elective caesarean section from anti-retroviral-treated HIV-1-infected pregnant women and from HIV-1 non-infected pregnant women. The main placental cytokines were assessed for protein secretion in the supernatants of 24-h placental culture explants and/or in uncultured placental explants for mRNA expression levels. The cytokine profiles were different between the HIV-1-infected and the non-infected groups. Higher medians of leukaemia inhibiting factor (LIF), tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interleukin (IL)-8 secretion were found in the 24-h culture supernatant of term placenta from HIV-1-infected women. High median levels of IL-16 and regulated upon activation normal T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES) levels were found in both groups. The mRNA expression medians were lower for TNF-alpha and IL-8 and higher for stromal cell-derived factor-1 (SDF-1) in uncultured placental explants from HIV-1-infected women. In the HIV-1-infected group, but not in the non-infected group, the secretion levels of TNF-alpha and IL-8, as well as their mRNA expression levels, were highly positively correlated; furthermore, their secretion levels were correlated positively with LIF and IL-10 secretion levels. We found no correlation between the cytokine levels and the immunovirological status of the HIV-1-infected mothers or the type or duration of treatment. These results highlight the potential impact of HIV-1 and of the anti-retroviral treatments on the placental cytokines pattern, independently of their anti-viral activity.

Down modulation of TNF-alpha mRNA placental expression by AZT used for the prevention of HIV-1 mother-to-child transmission.

Mechanisms of HIV-1 in utero mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) protection provided by AZT are not completely understood. The placental cytokine network is involved in the control of HIV-1 in utero transmission but the effect of AZT on this network is unknown. To evaluate the effects of AZT on placental cytokine expression, the chorionic villi from HIV-1 uninfected women term placentae were cultured with 0, 100, and 2,000 ng/ml AZT. Tissue fragments were harvested at days 1, 4, and 7 to determine the level of cytokine mRNA by real-time RT-PCR. The viability and morphology of the placental histocultures were monitored by the expression of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG) gene, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) activation, and microscopic examination. AZT at 2,000 ng/ml significantly down-regulated TNF-alpha mRNA expression at day 1 and day 4, but had no effect on beta-hCG, stromal cell-derived factor 1 (SDF-1), and IL-10 gene expression. AZT did not induce any deleterious impact on placental tissue structure. Furthermore, activation of chorionic villi by LPS for 24 h up-regulated IL-10 and TNF-alpha mRNA expression. Down-regulation of TNF-alpha mRNA could represent a mechanism through which AZT can decrease the risk of HIV-1 MTCT, in addition to its direct effect on HIV-1 replication.

Ineffectiveness of Lactobacillus johnsonii LA1 for prophylaxis of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease: a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled GETAID trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early endoscopic recurrence is frequent after intestinal resection for Crohn's disease. Bacteria are involved, and probiotics may modulate immune responses to the intestinal flora. Here we tested the probiotic strain Lactobacillus johnsonii LA1 in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled study. Patients were eligible if they had undergone surgical resection of <1 m, removing all macroscopic lesions within the past 21 days. Patients were randomised to receive two packets per day of lyophilised LA1 (2 x 10(9) cfu) or placebo for six months; no other treatment was allowed. The primary endpoint was endoscopic recurrence at six months, with grade >1 in Rutgeerts' classification or an adapted classification for colonic lesions. Endoscopic score was the maximal grade of ileal and colonic lesions. Analyses were performed primarily on an intent to treat basis. RESULTS: Ninety eight patients were enrolled (48 in the LA1 group). At six months, endoscopic recurrence was observed in 30/47 patients (64%) in the placebo group and in 21/43 (49%) in the LA1 group (p = 0.15). Per protocol analysis confirmed this result. Endoscopic score distribution did not differ significantly between the LA1 and placebo groups. There were four clinical recurrences in the LA1 group and three in the placebo group. CONCLUSION: L johnsonii LA1 (4 x 10(9) cfu/day) did not have a sufficient effect, if any, to prevent endoscopic recurrence of Crohn's disease.

Gestational age determination and prevention of HIV perinatal transmission.

OBJECTIVE: To compare different methods of gestational age (GA) measurement for ensuring effective zidovudine (ZDV) prophylaxis to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. METHODS: For 1398 HIV-infected women enrolled in a perinatal prevention trial, gestation durations were calculated based on GA estimated using ultrasound (US), date of last menstruation period (LMP), first fundal height (FH(1)), and a specific algorithm was developed to provide a "reference" GA. The performance of each GA estimate was evaluated by the percentage of women who would have received > or =8 weeks ZDV, if prophylaxis was initiated at 28 weeks. RESULTS: The performances of the algorithm, US, LMP, and FH(1) were 95.5%, 94.8%, 88.4%, and 83.7%, respectively. US and FH(1) were significantly better when estimated before and after 24 weeks, respectively. CONCLUSION: In situations where no US is available and LMP is not or imprecisely known, FH(1) can be used after 24 weeks to schedule ZDV initiation date.

Power calculation for the likelihood ratio-test when comparing two dependent intraclass correlation coefficients.

Comparing the reproducibility level of two devices with continuous outcome on a unique sample of subjects (each subject being assessed several times with both devices) comes down to compare two dependent intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). When planning such a reproducibility study, one has to specify both the number of subjects to be included and the number of replicates per subject associated to each device. We propose SAS and S-plus macros, which allow power calculations by implementing a simulation study where dependent ICCs are compared by means of a likelihood ratio-test.

A French cluster of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a molecular analysis.

We report the molecular and phenotypic analysis of a French cluster of three cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), two of them occurring in 1998 in the same village and the other in 1995 in a neighboring village. Analyses of the occurrence of these events in a close area with less than 3000 inhabitants over the 1992-1999 notification period confirmed that they are rare. This could be explained either by a common source of contamination or by the coincidental occurrence of either sporadic or genetic CJD. We applied genetic analysis and brain PrPres typing to explore these CJD cases. The three patients did not carry any mutation in their prion protein gene coding sequence. All were homozygous for methionine at the polymorphic codon 129. Brain tissue was available from two cases that died in 1998. The two patients showed different PrPres profiles on Western blot and distinct clinico-pathological features. These findings do not support the conclusion that in these three cases, CJD was acquired from a unique source of contamination and suggest that concurrent occurrence of sporadic CJD accounted for this CJD cluster.

Osteoporosis in inflammatory bowel disease: effect of calcium and vitamin D with or without fluoride.

BACKGROUND: Previous data have indicated low bone formation as a mechanism of osteoporosis in inflammatory bowel disease. Fluoride can stimulate bone formation. AIM: To assess the effect of fluoride supplementation on lumbar spine bone mineral density in osteoporotic patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated in parallel with calcium and vitamin D. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel and placebo-controlled study, 94 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (lumbar spine T score below - 2 standard deviations, normal serum 25OH vitamin D), with a median age of 35 years, were included. Bone mineral density was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Patients were randomized to receive daily either sodium monofluorophosphate (150 mg, n=45) or placebo (n=49) for 1 year, and all received calcium (1 g) and vitamin D (800 IU). The relative change in bone mineral density from 0 to 12 months was tested in each group (fluoride or placebo) and compared between the groups. RESULTS: Lumbar spine bone mineral density increased significantly in both groups after 1 year: 4.8 +/- 5.6% (n=29) and 3.2 +/- 3.8% (n=31) in the calcium-vitamin D-fluoride and calcium-vitamin D-placebo groups, respectively (P < 0.001 for each group). There was no difference between the groups (P=0.403). Similar results were observed according to corticosteroid intake or disease activity. CONCLUSIONS: Calcium and vitamin D seem to increase lumbar spine density in osteoporotic patients with inflammatory bowel disease; fluoride does not provide further benefit.

Prolonged immune deficiency following allogeneic stem cell transplantation: risk factors and complications in adult patients.

To evaluate the long-term immune reconstitution after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (SCT), we prospectively screened standard immune parameters in a series of 105 patients, at a median time of 15 months after SCT. Analysing lymphoid phenotypes, in vitro immune functions and immunoglobulin levels, we found that, more than 1 year post SCT, cellular and humoral immunity was still altered in a significant number of patients. CD4+ T cells were < 200/microl in one third of patients, and the CD4/CD8 ratio was still reversed in 78% of patients. Almost all patients showed positive T-cell responses against mitogens, but antigen-specific proliferation assays identified 20% to 80% of non-responders. B-cell counts were reconstituted in 61% of the patients, but levels of total immunoglobulins were still low in 59%. In multivariate analyses, human leucocyte antigen (HLA) disparity between donor and recipient and chronic graft-versus-host disease were the leading causes affecting immune reconstitution. Interestingly, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections were strongly associated with normal CD8+ T-cell counts. Studying the impact of impaired immune reconstitution on the rate of infections occurring in the 6 years following screening, we identified three parameters (low B-cell count, inverted CD4/CD8 ratio, and negative response to tetanus toxin) as significant risk factors for developing such late infections.

Planning a reproducibility study: how many subjects and how many replicates per subject for an expected width of the 95 per cent confidence interval of the intraclass correlation coefficient.

Reproducibility of a quantitative outcome is usually assessed by means of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). When we are interested in assessing reproducibility from only one sample, we suggest that the study be planned with regards to the expected width of the 95 per cent confidence interval of the ICC. An approximation of this latter width is derived, which allows appraisal of the influence of n the number of subjects and p the number of replicates. Through simulation studies, the approximation is shown to be of good accuracy and can therefore be used reliably. Optimal designs are also discussed such as the optimal distribution between the number of subjects and the number of replicates per subject for a fixed total number of measures.

Ability of the American College of Rheumatology 1987 criteria to predict rheumatoid arthritis in patients with early arthritis and classification of these patients two years later.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how well the American College of Rheumatology (ACR; formerly, the American Rheumatism Association) 1987 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), when used at study inclusion in a cohort of 270 patients with early (<1 year) arthritis, predicted a diagnosis of RA 2 years later and how well they classified these patients at the end of the 2 years. METHODS: Patients were evaluated during 1995-1997 at 7 hospitals in the Brittany region of France. Patients were evaluated at 6-month intervals until November 1999. The diagnosis made by a panel of 5 rheumatologists (P5R) after the last visit was used as the "gold standard." The ACR 1987 criteria for RA were applied prospectively, without taking into account the initial diagnosis. RESULTS: At the last visit (mean +/- SD followup 29.1 +/- 11.8 months; median 30 months), the P5R diagnosed RA in 98 patients. At the last visit, classification by the ACR criteria was satisfactory, and the combination of an office-based rheumatologist's (OBR's) diagnosis of RA and fulfillment of the ACR criteria was sensitive (87%; 85 of 98 RA patients had both) and highly specific (99%; 170 of 172 non-RA patients did not have both). Application of the criteria at the first visit was of limited value for predicting a diagnosis of RA 2 years later. CONCLUSION: After a 2-year followup, the ACR 1987 classification criteria used in combination with an OBR's diagnosis were effective in distinguishing patients with and without RA. The criteria were not useful for predicting RA in patients with arthritis onset within the previous year. Some patients who met the criteria at baseline and after 2 years did not have RA, suggesting that incorporating exclusion criteria may improve the performance of the ACR criteria when used without taking into account the diagnosis by a rheumatologist, particularly in early arthritis.