Correction: Patient compliance with NHS 111 advice: Analysis of adult call and ED attendance data 2013-2017.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251362.].

Adoption of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin for risk stratification of patients with suspected myocardial infarction: a multicentre cohort study.

Background: Guidelines recommend high-sensitivity cardiac troponin to risk stratify patients with possible myocardial infarction and identify those eligible for discharge. Our aim was to evaluate adoption of this approach in practice and to determine whether effectiveness and safety varies by age, sex, ethnicity, or socioeconomic deprivation status. Methods: A multi-centre cohort study was conducted in 13 hospitals across the United Kingdom from November 1st, 2021, to October 31st, 2022. Routinely collected data including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I or T measurements were linked to outcomes. The primary effectiveness and safety outcomes were the proportion discharged from the Emergency Department, and the proportion dead or with a subsequent myocardial infarction at 30 days, respectively. Patients were stratified using peak troponin concentration as low (<5 ng/L), intermediate (5 ng/L to sex-specific 99th percentile), or high-risk (>sex-specific 99th percentile). Findings: In total 137,881 patients (49% [67,709/137,881] female) were included of whom 60,707 (44%), 42,727 (31%), and 34,447 (25%) were stratified as low-, intermediate- and high-risk, respectively. Overall, 65.8% (39,918/60,707) of low-risk patients were discharged from the Emergency Department, but this varied from 26.8% [2200/8216] to 93.5% [918/982] by site. The safety outcome occurred in 0.5% (277/60,707) and 11.4% (3917/34,447) of patients classified as low- or high-risk, of whom 0.03% (18/60,707) and 1% (304/34,447) had a subsequent myocardial infarction at 30 days, respectively. A similar proportion of male and female patients were discharged (52% [36,838/70,759] versus 54% [36,113/67,109]), but discharge was more likely if patients were <70 years old (61% [58,533/95,227] versus 34% [14,428/42,654]), from areas of low socioeconomic deprivation (48% [6697/14,087] versus 43% [12,090/28,116]) or were black or asian compared to caucasian (62% [5458/8877] and 55% [10,026/18,231] versus 46% [35,138/75,820]). Interpretation: Despite high-sensitivity cardiac troponin correctly identifying half of all patients with possible myocardial infarction as being at low risk, only two-thirds of these patients were discharged. Substantial variation in the discharge of patients by age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and site was observed identifying important opportunities to improve care. Funding: UK Research and Innovation.

Associations between regional blood-brain barrier permeability, aging, and Alzheimer's disease biomarkers in cognitively normal older adults.

BACKGROUND: Increased blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBp) has been hypothesized as a feature of aging that may lead to the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We sought to identify the brain regions most vulnerable to greater BBBp during aging and examine their regional relationship with neuroimaging biomarkers of AD. METHODS: We studied 31 cognitively normal older adults (OA) and 10 young adults (YA) from the Berkeley Aging Cohort Study (BACS). Both OA and YA received dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) to quantify Ktrans values, as a measure of BBBp, in 37 brain regions across the cortex. The OA also received Pittsburgh compound B (PiB)-PET to create distribution volume ratios (DVR) images and flortaucipir (FTP)- PET to create partial volume corrected standardized uptake volume ratios (SUVR) images. Repeated measures ANOVA assessed the brain regions where OA showed greater BBBp than YA. In OA, Ktrans values were compared based on sex, Aß positivity status, and APOE4 carrier status within a composite region across the areas susceptible to aging. We used linear models and sparse canonical correlation analysis (SCCA) to examine the relationship between Ktrans and AD biomarkers. RESULTS: OA showed greater BBBp than YA predominately in the temporal lobe, with some involvement of parietal, occipital and frontal lobes. Within an averaged ROI of affected regions, there was no difference in Ktrans values based on sex or Aß positivity, but OA who were APOE4 carriers had significantly higher Ktrans values. There was no direct relationship between averaged Ktrans and global Aß pathology, but there was a trend for an Ab status by tau interaction on Ktrans in this region. SCCA showed increased Ktrans was associated with increased PiB DVR, mainly in temporal and parietal brain regions. There was not a significant relationship between Ktrans and FTP SUVR. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate that the BBB shows regional vulnerability during normal aging that overlaps considerably with the pattern of AD pathology. Greater BBBp in brain regions affected in aging is related to APOE genotype and may also be related to the pathological accumulation of Aß.

Understanding health service utilisation patterns for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic using routinely collected healthcare data.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare in care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic required a balance, providing treatment while minimising exposure risk. Policy for how residents should receive care changed rapidly throughout the pandemic. A lack of accessible data on care home residents over this time meant policy decisions were difficult to make and verify. This study investigates common patterns of healthcare utilisation for care home residents in relation to COVID-19 testing events, and associations between utilisation patterns and resident characteristics. METHODS: Datasets from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust including secondary care, community care and a care home telehealth app are linked by NHS number used to define daily healthcare utilisation sequences for care home residents. We derive four 10-day sets of sequences related to Pillar 1 COVID-19 testing; before [1] and after [2] a resident's first positive test and before [3] and after [4] a resident's first test. These sequences are clustered, grouping residents with similar healthcare patterns in each set. Association of individual characteristics (e.g. health conditions such as diabetes and dementia) with healthcare patterns are investigated. RESULTS: We demonstrate how routinely collected health data can be used to produce longitudinal descriptions of patient care. Clustered sequences [1,2,3,4] are produced for 3,471 care home residents tested between 01/03/2020-01/09/2021. Clusters characterised by higher levels of utilisation were significantly associated with higher prevalence of diabetes. Dementia is associated with higher levels of care after a testing event and appears to be correlated with a hospital discharge after a first test. Residents discharged from inpatient care within 10 days of their first test had the same mortality rate as those who stayed in hospital. CONCLUSION: We provide longitudinal, resident-level data on care home resident healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that vulnerable residents were associated with higher levels of healthcare usage despite the additional risks. Implications of findings are limited by the challenges of routinely collected data. However, this study demonstrates the potential for further research into healthcare pathways using linked, routinely collected datasets.

'In the shower crying but we came back in the following day and did it all again'. Distress and resilience in care home staff during the COVID-19 pandemic- A qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Care homes (long-term care facilities) were profoundly impacted early in the COVID-19 pandemic, both in terms of resident mortality and restrictions for infection control. This study investigated the impact on the emotional well-being of care home staff of challenges faced at this time, and the strategies used to manage them. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews conducted October 2020-June 2021 with care home staff and health service staff working with them explored the impact of the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-June 2021). Interview data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interview participants were 16 care home staff and 10 health service staff. Analysis generated four key themes: 1)Anxiety and distress, 2)Overwhelming workload, 3)Pulling through; and 4)Resilience in a time of crisis. Care home staff experienced Anxiety and distress due to uncertainty of what to expect; witnessing illness and deaths of residents; concerns regarding their own health, and sometimes feeling their work was under-recognised. They also experienced an Overwhelming workload due to infection control measures, caring for sick residents and reduction in external healthcare support. Our theme of Pulling through reflects the peer support and problem-solving strategies with which care home staff managed the impact of the pandemic, along with a sense of responsibility and meaning towards their work. An overarching theme of Resilience in a time of crisis drew on the other three themes and describes how many staff managed, maintained, and often increased their work despite the challenges of the pandemic. Participants also described increasing emotional fatigue as the pandemic continued. CONCLUSIONS: This paper builds on literature on the emotional impact of the pandemic on care home staff, also exploring ways that staff responded to this impact. These findings can help inform planning for future crises including disease outbreaks, and raise important questions for further work to develop pandemic preparedness in care homes and beyond. They also raise wider questions about the current cultural status of care work, which may have exposed care home staff to greater risk of distress, and which contrasts with the professionalism and responsibility shown by staff in response to pandemic challenges.

Exploring advanced clinical practitioner perspectives on training, role identity and competence: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Advanced Clinical Practitioners (ACPs) are a new role that have been established to address gaps and support the existing medical workforce in an effort to help reduce increasing pressures on NHS services. ACPs have the potential to practice at a similar level to mid-grade medical staff, for example independently undertaking assessments, requesting and interpreting investigations, and diagnosing and discharging patients. These roles have been shown to improve both service outcomes and quality of patient care. However, there is currently no widespread formalised standard of training within the UK resulting in variations in the training experiences and clinical capabilities of ACPs. We sought to explore the training experiences of ACPs as well as their views on role identity and future development of the role. METHODS: Five online focus groups were conducted between March and May 2021 with trainee and qualified advanced clinical practitioners working in a range of healthcare settings, in the North of England. The focus groups aimed to explore the experiences of undertaking ACP training including supervision, gaining competence, role identity and career progression. Thematic analysis of the focus group transcripts was performed, informed by grounded theory principles. RESULTS: Fourteen advanced clinical practitioners participated. Analysis revealed that training was influenced by internal and external perceptions of the role, often acting as barriers, with structural aspects being significant contributory factors. Key themes identified (1) clinical training lacked structure and support, negatively impacting progress, (2) existing knowledge and experience acted as both an enabler and inhibitor, with implications for confidence, (3) the role and responsibilities are poorly understood by both advanced clinical practitioners and the wider medical profession and (4) advanced clinical practitioners recognised the value and importance of the role but felt changes were necessary, to provide security and sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate structure and support are crucial throughout the training process to enable staff to have a smooth transition to advanced level, ensuring they obtain the necessary confidence and competence. Structural changes and knowledge brokering are essential, particularly in relation to role clarity and its responsibilities, sufficient allocated time to learn and practice, role accreditation and continuous appropriate supervision.

The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances by care home residents are potentially avoidable. Health Call Digital Care Homes is an app-based technology that aims to streamline residents' care by recording their observations such as vital parameters electronically. Observations are triaged by remote clinical staff. This study assessed the effectiveness of the Health Call technology to reduce unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of health outcomes and economic impact based on an intervention. The study involved 118 care homes across the North East of UK from 2018 to 2021. Routinely collected NHS secondary care data from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust was linked with data from the Health Call app. Three outcomes were modelled monthly using Generalised Linear Mixed Models: counts of emergency attendances, emergency admissions and length of stay of emergency admissions. A similar approach was taken for costs. The impact of Health Call was tested on each outcome using the models. FINDINGS: Data from 8,702 residents were used in the analysis. Results show Health Call reduces the number of emergency attendances by 11% [6-15%], emergency admissions by 25% [20-39%] and length of stay by 11% [3-18%] (with an additional month-by-month decrease of 28% [24-34%]). The cost analysis found a cost reduction of £57 per resident in 2018, increasing to £113 in 2021. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of a digital technology, such as Health Call, could significantly reduce contacts with and costs resulting from unplanned secondary care usage by care home residents.

'Knowledge exchange' workshops to optimise development of a risk prediction tool to assist conveyance decisions for suspected seizures - Part of the Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project.

PURPOSE: Suspected seizures present challenges for ambulance services, with paramedics reporting uncertainty over whether or not to convey individuals to emergency departments. The Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project aims to address this by developing a risk assessment tool utilizing structured patient care record and dispatch data. It proposes a tool that would provide estimates of an individual's likelihood of death and/or recontact with emergency care within 3 days if conveyed compared to not conveyed, and the likelihood of an 'avoidable attendance' occurring if conveyed. Knowledge Exchange workshops engaged stakeholders to resolve key design uncertainties before model derivation. METHOD: Six workshops involved 26 service users and their significant others (epilepsy or nonepileptic attack disorder), and 25 urgent and emergency care clinicians from different English ambulance regions. Utilizing Nominal Group Techniques, participants shared views of the proposed tool, benefits and concerns, suggested predictors, critiqued outcome measures, and expressed functionality preferences. Data were analysed using Hamilton's Rapid Analysis. RESULTS: Stakeholders supported tool development, proposing 10 structured variables for predictive testing. Emphasis was placed on the tool supporting, not dictating, care decisions. Participants highlighted some reasons why RADOSS might struggle to derive a predictive model based on structured data alone and suggested some non-structured variables for future testing. Feedback on prediction timeframes for service recontact was received, along with advice on amending the 'avoidable attendance' definition to prevent the tool's predictions being undermined by potential overuse of certain investigations in hospital. CONCLUSION: Collaborative stakeholder engagement provided crucial insights that can guide RADOSS to develop a user-aligned, optimized tool.

Delivery of public health interventions by the ambulance sector: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: With millions of unscheduled patient contacts every year and increasing call outs clustered around the most deprived communities, it is clear the ambulance sector could have a role to play in improving population health. However, the application and value of a public health approach within the ambulance sector has not been comprehensively explored. A scoping review was undertaken to explore the role of the ambulance sector in the delivery of public health interventions and what impact this has on population health and ambulance sector outcomes. METHODS: A search strategy was developed on MEDLINE and translated to other major medical and health related bibliographic databases (Embase; CINAHL; HMIC; Science and Social Sciences Citation Index; Cochrane Library) to identify literature published since 2000 in OECD countries. Targeted grey literature, reference list, and citation searching was also carried out. Search results were downloaded to Microsoft Excel and screened by three reviewers according to pre-determined inclusion / exclusion criteria. Data from included studies, such as the type of activity noted within the paper, the population involved and the public health approach that was utilised, was extracted from within the paper using a data extraction form and narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Fifty-two references were included in the final review (37 database searching; 9 reference list searching; 6 grey literature). Included articles were categorised according to the relevant public health domains and subdomains as articulated by the UK Faculty of Public Health: 1. Health improvement domain: Public health education and advice (Health promotion sub-domain) (n=13) Emergency Services personnel providing vaccines (Disease prevention sub-domain) (n=1) 2. Health care public health domain Paramedicine (Service delivery sub-domain) (n=30) Screening tools and referral pathways used by the ambulance sector (Service delivery sub-domain) (n=28) Health intelligence using ambulance sector data (population health management sub-domain) (n=26) Of note, some domains (e.g. health protection) returned nil results. DISCUSSION: The scoping review demonstrates the breadth of public health related activities in which the ambulance sector is involved. However, an overemphasis on demand management outcomes precludes definitive conclusions on the impact of ambulance sector-led public health initiatives on public health outcomes. Future evaluations of public health initiatives should incorporate wider health system perspectives beyond the immediately apparent remit of the ambulance sector.

Navigating data governance associated with real-world data for public benefit: an overview in the UK and future considerations.

Real-world data encompass data primarily captured for the provision or operation of services, for example, electronic health records for direct care purposes, but which may have secondary uses for informing research or commissioning. Public benefit is potentially forfeited by the underutilisation of real-world data for secondary uses, in part due to risk aversion when faced with the prospect of navigating necessary and important data governance processes. Such processes can be perceived as complex, daunting, time-consuming and exposing organisations to risk. By providing an overview description and discussion around the role of six key legal and information governance frameworks and their role regarding responsible data access, linkage and sharing, our intention is to make data governance a less daunting prospect and reduce the perception that it is a barrier to secondary uses, thus enabling public benefit.

What impact would reducing low-acuity attendance have on emergency department length of stay? A discrete event simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long waiting times in the ED have been shown to cause negative outcomes for patients. This study aims to assess the effect in reducing length of stay of (1) preventing low-acuity attenders from attending the ED and (2) diverting low-acuity attenders at triage to a colocated general practice (GP) service. METHODS: Discrete event simulation was used to model a large urban teaching hospital in the UK, as a case study, with a colocated GP service. The Centre for Urgent and Emergency Care research database patient-level database (May 2015-April 2016), secondary literature and expert elicitation were used to inform the model. The model predicted length of stay, the percentage of patients being seen within 4 hours and the incremental cost-effectiveness of the colocated GP service. RESULTS: The model predicted that diverting low-acuity patients to a colocated GP open 9:00 to 17:00 reduces the average time in the system for higher acuity attenders by 29 min at an estimated additional cost of £6.76 per patient on average. The percentage of higher acuity patients being seen within 4 hours increased from 61% to 67% due to the reduction in the length of stay of those who were in the ED for the longest time. However, the model is sensitive to changes in model inputs and there is uncertainty around ED activity durations, for which further primary data collection would be useful. CONCLUSION: Reducing the proportion of low-acuity attenders at the ED could have an impact on the time in the ED for higher acuity patients due to their use of shared resources, but is insufficient alone to meet current targets. The simulation model could be adapted for further analyses to understand which other changes would be needed to meet current government targets.

Identifying models of care to improve outcomes for older people with urgent care needs: a mixed methods approach to develop a system dynamics model.

Background: We aimed to understand urgent and emergency care pathways for older people and develop a decision support tool using a mixed methods study design. Objective(s), study design, settings and participants: Work package 1 identified best practice through a review of reviews, patient, carer and professional interviews. Work package 2 involved qualitative case studies of selected urgent and emergency care pathways in the Yorkshire and Humber region. Work package 3 analysed linked databases describing urgent and emergency care pathways identifying patient, provider and pathway factors that explain differences in outcomes and costs. Work package 4 developed a system dynamics tool to compare emergency interventions. Results: A total of 18 reviews summarising 128 primary studies found that integrated social and medical care, screening and assessment, follow-up and monitoring of service outcomes were important. Forty patient/carer participants described emergency department attendances; most reported a reluctance to attend. Participants emphasised the importance of being treated with dignity, timely and accurate information provision and involvement in decision-making. Receiving care in a calm environment with attention to personal comfort and basic physical needs were key. Patient goals included diagnosis and resolution, well-planned discharge home and retaining physical function. Participants perceived many of these goals of care were not attained. A total of 21 professional participants were interviewed and 23 participated in focus groups, largely confirming the review evidence. Implementation challenges identified included the urgent and emergency care environment, organisational approaches to service development, staff skills and resources. Work package 2 involved 45 interviews and 30 hours of observation in four contrasting emergency departments. Key themes relating to implementation included: intervention-related staff: frailty mindset and behaviours resources: workforce, space, and physical environment operational influences: referral criteria, frailty assessment, operating hours, transport. context-related links with community, social and primary care organisation and management support COVID-19 pandemic. approaches to implementation service/quality improvement networks engaging staff and building relationships education about frailty evidence. The linked databases in work package 3 comprised 359,945 older people and 1,035,045 observations. The most powerful predictors of four-hour wait and transfer to hospital were age, previous attendance, out-of-hours attendance and call handler designation of urgency. Drawing upon the previous work packages and working closely with a wide range of patient and professional stakeholders, we developed an system dynamics tool that modelled five evidence-based urgent and emergency care interventions and their impact on the whole system in terms of reducing admissions, readmissions, and hospital related mortality. Limitations: Across the reviews there was incomplete reporting of interventions. People living with severe frailty and from ethnic minorities were under-represented in the patient/carer interviews. The linked databases did not include patient reported outcomes. The system dynamics model was limited to evidence-based interventions, which could not be modelled conjointly. Conclusions: We have reaffirmed the poor outcomes frequently experienced by many older people living with urgent care needs. We have identified interventions that could improve patient and service outcomes, as well as implementation tools and strategies to help including clinicians, service managers and commissioners improve emergency care for older people. Future work: Future work will focus on refining the system dynamics model, specifically including patient-reported outcome measures and pre-hospital services for older people living with frailty who have urgent care needs. Study registrations: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018111461. WP 1.2: University of Leicester ethics: 17525-spc3-ls:healthsciences, WP 2: IRAS 262143, CAG 19/CAG/0194, WP 3: IRAS 215818, REC 17/YH/0024, CAG 17/CAG/0024. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme [project number 17/05/96 (Emergency Care for Older People)] and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Many older people attending emergency care have poor outcomes; this project aimed to: describe best practice in emergency care understand how best practice might be delivered describe outcomes from emergency care, and synthesise this information in a computer simulation tool that can help teams decide which interventions might work best in their setting. The existing literature showed that holistic interventions (caring for the whole person), spanning emergency and community care, designed with the needs of older people in mind, work best. We checked these findings with front line clinicians, who agreed, but identified that implementing best practice in the emergency department was challenging. Limitations included the emergency department environment itself and the lack of staff with the right skillset. We also asked older people and their carers who had recently received emergency care what mattered. They prioritised basic needs such as comfort, communication, and timely care. They also stated that getting better, maintaining their usual level of function, and getting home safely were important outcomes. We then analysed data that linked together ambulance, emergency department, and hospital care in Yorkshire and Humber from 2011­17 for over 1 million emergency department attendances and hospital admissions. We found a novel and accurate predictor of long emergency department waits and hospital admission: the level of urgency according to the ambulance call handler. Drawing upon all the above and guided by a wide range of patient and professionals, we developed a computer model which allows emergency care teams to simulate different best practice emergency department interventions and estimate the impact on reducing admissions, readmissions, and hospital mortality. In summary, we have reaffirmed the poor outcomes experienced by many older people with urgent care needs. We have identified interventions that could improve patient and service outcomes, as well as implementation tools to help including clinicians, hospital managers and funders transform emergency care for older people.

Using ecotourism boats for estimating the abundance of a bottlenose dolphin population in south-eastern Australia.

It is challenging to collect robust, long-term datasets to properly monitor the viability and social structure of large, long-lived animals, especially marine mammals. The present study used a unique long-term dataset to investigate the population parameters and social structure of a poorly studied population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in southern Port Phillip Bay, south-eastern Australia. Photo-identification images have been collected between 2012-2022 both opportunistically and following a protocol by patrons, staff, and volunteers of ecotourism companies using their vessels as platforms. The resulting large dataset was available to be processed through the online platform Flukebook and used in capture recapture models to estimate abundance and demographic parameters. In addition, the social structure of the population and the reproductive parameters were investigated. The marked adult population abundance (45.2 ± 2.7 individuals) was found to be stable over the last decade and the calving rate ranged between 0.06-0.19 new calves per identified individuals per year, while the inter-birth interval was 3.7 ± 0.8 years. Social analysis suggested the population has a fission-fusion structure with no apparent clusters. The stability of the population over the study period suggests no deleterious effect of anthropogenic or environmental factors during the last decade. This study is the outcome of the effort of the ecotourism organisations and the results obtained, along with their similarity to those of other dolphin populations worldwide, highlight the importance of such data sources for long-term information that would otherwise be too expensive or logistically difficult to obtain.

Use of urgent, emergency and acute care by mental health service users: A record-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People with serious mental illness experience worse physical health and greater mortality than the general population. Crude rates of A&E attendance and acute hospital admission are higher in people with serious mental illness than other hospital users. We aimed to further these findings by undertaking a standardised comparison of urgent and emergency care pathway use among users of mental health services and the general population. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis using routine data from 2013-2016 from the CUREd dataset for urgent and emergency care contacts (NHS 111, ambulance, A&E and acute admissions) and linked mental health trust data for Sheffield, England. We compared annual age- and sex-standardised usage rates for each urgent and emergency care service between users of mental health services and those without a recent history of mental health service use. RESULTS: We found marked differences in usage rates for all four urgent and emergency care services between the general population and users of mental health services. Usage rates and the proportion of users were 5-6 times and 3-4 times higher in users of mental health services, respectively, for all urgent and emergency care services. Users of mental health services were often more likely to experience the highest or lowest acuity usage characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Current users of mental health services were heavily over-represented among urgent and emergency care users, and they made more contacts per-person. Higher service use among users of mental health services could be addressed by improved community care, more integrated physical and mental health support, and more proactive primary care. A complex pattern of service use among users of mental health services suggests this will need careful targeting to reduce avoidable contacts and optimise patient outcomes.

Examining the effect of interventions in emergency care for older people using a system dynamics decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Rising demand for Emergency and Urgent Care is a major international issue and outcomes for older people remain sub-optimal. Embarking upon large-scale service development is costly in terms of time, energy and resources with no guarantee of improved outcomes; computer simulation modelling offers an alternative, low risk and lower cost approach to explore possible interventions. METHOD: A system dynamics computer simulation model was developed as a decision support tool for service planners. The model represents patient flow through the emergency care process from the point of calling for help through ED attendance, possible admission, and discharge or death. The model was validated against five different evidence-based interventions (geriatric emergency medicine, front door frailty, hospital at home, proactive care and acute frailty units) on patient outcomes such as hospital-related mortality, readmission and length of stay. RESULTS: The model output estimations are consistent with empirical evidence. Each intervention has different levels of effect on patient outcomes. Most of the interventions show potential reductions in hospital admissions, readmissions and hospital-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modelling can be used to support decisions on which emergency care interventions to implement to improve outcomes for older people.

Sharing real-world data for public benefit: a qualitative exploration of stakeholder views and perceptions.

BACKGROUND: There has been an increasing interest in the use of "real-world" data to inform care decision making that could lead to public health benefit. Routinely collected service and activity data associated with the administration of care services and service-users (such as electronic health records or electronic social care records), hold potential to better inform effective and responsive decision-making about health and care services provided to national and local populations. This study sought to gain an in-depth understanding regarding the potential to unlock real world data that was held in individual organisations, to better inform public health decision-making. This included sharing data between and within health service providers and local governing authorities, but also with university researchers to inform the evidence base. METHODS: We used qualitative methods and carried out a series of online workshops and interviews with stakeholders (senior-level decision-makers and service leads, researchers, data analysts, those with a legal and governance role, and members of the public). We identified recurring themes in initial workshops, and explored these with participants in subsequent workshops. By this iterative process we further refined the themes identified, compared views and perceptions amongst different stakeholder groups, and developed recommendations for action. RESULTS: Our study identified key elements of context and timing, the need for a different approach, and obstacles including governmental and legal, organisational features, and process factors which adversely affect the sharing of real world data. The findings also highlighted a need for improved communication about data for secondary uses to members of the public. CONCLUSION: The Covid-19 pandemic context and changes to organisational structures in the health service in England have provided opportunities to address data sharing challenges. Change at national and local level is required, within current job roles and generating new jobs roles focused on the use and sharing of real-world data. The study suggests that actions can be taken to unlock the potential of real-world data for public health benefit, and provides a series of recommendations at a national level, for organisational leaders, those in data roles and those in public engagement roles.