ABSTRACT
Introduction: Despite the implementation of complex interventions, ICU mortality remains high and more so in developing countries. The demand for critical care in Sub-Saharan Africa is more than ever before as the region experiences a double burden of rising rates of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in the background battle of combating infectious diseases. Limited studies in Tanzania have reported varying factors associated with markedly high rates of ICU mortality. Investigating the burden of ICU care remains crucial in providing insights into the effectiveness and challenges of critical care delivery. Material and Methods: A single-center retrospective study that reviewed records of all medically admitted patients admitted to the ICU of the Aga Khan Hospital, Dar-es-Salaam, from 1st October 2018 to 30th April 2023. To define the population in the study, we used descriptive statistics. Patients' outcomes were categorized based on ICU survival. Binary logistic regression was run (at 95% CI and p-value < 0.05) to identify the determinants for ICU mortality. Results: Medical records of 717 patients were reviewed. The cohort was male (n=472,65.8%) and African predominant (n=471,65.7%) with a median age of 58 years (IQR 45.0-71.0). 17.9% of patients did not survive. The highest mortality was noted amongst patients with septic shock (29.3%). The lowest survival was noted amongst patients requiring three organ support (n=12,2.1%). Advanced age (OR 1.02,CI 1.00-1.04), having more than three underlying comorbidities (OR 2.50,CI 1.96-6.60), use of inotropic support (OR 3.58,CI 1.89-6.80) and mechanical ventilation (OR 9.11,CI 4.72-18.11) showed association with increased risk for mortality in ICU. Conclusion: The study indicated a much lower ICU mortality rate compared to similar studies conducted in other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Advanced age, underlying multiple comorbidities and organ support were associated with ICU mortality. Large multi-center studies are needed to highlight the true burden of critical care illness in Tanzania.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. In Diabetics, ASCVD is associated with poor prognosis and a higher case fatality rate compared with the general population. Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an epidemiological transition with ASCVD being prevalent among young adults. To date, over 20 million people have been living with DM in Africa, Tanzania being one of the five countries in the continent reported to have a higher prevalence. This study aimed to identify an individual's 10-year ASCVD absolute risk among a diabetic cohort in Tanzania and define contextual risk enhancing factors. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted at the Aga Khan hospital, Mwanza, for a period of 8 months. The hospital is a 42-bed district-level hospital in Tanzania. Individuals 10-year risk was calculated based on the ASCVD 2013 risk calculator by ACC/AHA. Pearson's chi-square or Fischer's exact test was used to compare categorical and continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was applied to determine contextual factors for those who had a high 10-year risk of developing ASCVD. Results: The overall cohort included 573 patients. Majority of the individuals were found to be hypertensive (n = 371, 64.7%) and obese (n = 331, 58%) having a high 10-year absolute risk (n = 343, 60%) of suffering ASCVD. The study identified duration of Diabetes Mellitus (>10 years) (OR 8.15, 95% CI 5.25-14.42), concomitant hypertension (OR 1.82 95% CI 1.06-3.06), Diabetic Dyslipidemia (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.08-1.92) and deranged serum creatinine (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.03) to be the risk enhancing factors amongst our population. Conclusion: The study confirms the majority of diabetic individuals in the lake region of Tanzania to have a high 10-year ASCVD risk. The high prevalence of obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia augments ASCVD risk but provides interventional targets for health-care workers to decrease these alarming projections.
