Perceived risk of ischemic and bleeding events in acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome registries report the use of incomplete guideline therapies, especially among the highest risk patients. Whether this treatment gap results from misperceptions of risk by physicians is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Perceived Risk of Ischemic and Bleeding Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients (PREDICT) study was a prospective acute coronary syndrome registry in Australia, China, India, and Russia, involving 58 hospitals between May 2009 and February 2011. In-hospital care and events up to 6 months were assessed. At least 2 clinicians involved in patient care estimated the untreated risk and change in risk with each therapy. Physician risk assessment and objective risk measures (eg, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events [GRACE] score) for death, death/myocardial infarction, and bleeding events were compared using the c statistic and integrated discrimination improvement. In total, 1542 patients and 4230 patient-specific physician estimates were obtained. Of responding clinicians, 81.9% were cardiovascular specialists (years of practice: mean [SD], 11.5 [7.7] years). The median physician-perceived risk of 6-month death was 25% (interquartile range, 14%-35%). The GRACE score was superior to physician estimation (c statistic: GRACE score, 0.812 [95% confidence interval, 0.772-0.851] versus physician, 0.652 [95% confidence interval, 0.596-0.708]; P<0.0001). The GRACE score added to clinician intuition improved discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.0632 [SE, 0.012]; P<0.0001). Invasive management correlated with physician-estimated risk but not with GRACE risk. Among patients not at high risk by physician estimation, increased risk by GRACE score was associated with higher mortality (3.7% versus 0.8%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Objective risk assessment provides superior risk discrimination when compared with physician-estimated risk. Whether systematic use of objective risk stratification improves clinical outcomes should be studied in appropriately designed clinical trials.

Coronary artery disease affecting the atrial branches is an independent determinant of atrial fibrillation after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: During acute myocardial infarction (MI), the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is 6% to 22%, and its occurrence in this setting is associated with increased short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this case control study was evaluate the characteristics associated with the development of new-onset AF. METHODS: Of 2,460 consecutive patients with acute MI, 149 (6%) were identified as having AF within 7 days of MI. After excluding patients with prior AF, previously documented heart failure, reduced left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, valvular heart disease, LV hypertrophy, AF after coronary artery bypass grafting, or pericarditis; we identified 42 AF patients in whom coronary anatomy was assessed by invasive angiography and cardiac structure and function was evaluated using transthoracic echocardiography. Another 42 patients from the same cohort with MI but no AF matched for age, gender, and LV ejection fraction were studied as controls. RESULTS: AF patients were more likely to present with an inferior MI (P = .002) but less likely to present with ST-segment elevation MI (P = .02). Univariate associations with AF included indexed left atrial volume (P <.001), LV filling pressure (E/e'; P = .001), right atrial branch disease (P <.001), left atrial branch disease (P = .009), sinoatrial branch disease (P <.001), left main stem disease (P = .02), and time from onset of symptoms to coronary intervention (P = .002). In multivariable analysis, right and left coronary artery atrial branch disease (P = .02) were predictors of AF post-MI. CONCLUSION: Coronary artery disease affecting the atrial branches is an independent predictor for the development of AF after MI.