The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes

Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1-4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our identification strategy isolates variation in COVID-19 rates across people born before and after 1968. In places with high 1968 influenza incidence, older cohorts experience lower COVID-19 death rates relative to younger ones. The relationship holds using county and patient-level data, as well as in hospital and nursing home settings. Results do not appear to be driven by systemic or policy-related factors, instead suggesting an individual-level response to prior influenza pandemic exposure. The findings merit investigation into potential biological and immunological mechanisms that account for these differences--and their implications for future pandemic preparedness.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Drug Use in Trauma Patients from Six Sites in the United States

In comparison to the general patient population, trauma patients show higher level detections of bloodborne infectious diseases, such as Hepatitis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus. In comparison to bloodborne pathogens, the prevalence of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 and how that relates with other variables, such as drug usage and trauma type, is currently unknown in trauma populations. Here, we evaluated SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody isotype profile in 2,542 trauma patients from six Level-1 trauma centers between April and October of 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the seroprevalence in trauma victims 18-44 years old (9.79%, 95% confidence interval/CI: 8.33 11.47) was much higher in comparison to older patients (45-69 years old: 6.03%, 4.59-5.88; 70+ years old: 4.33%, 2.54 - 7.20). Black/African American (9.54%, 7.77 - 11.65) and Hispanic/Latino patients (14.95%, 11.80 - 18.75) also had higher seroprevalence in comparison, respectively, to White (5.72%, 4.62 7.05) and Non-Latino patients (6.55%, 5.57 - 7.69). More than half (55.54%) of those tested for drug toxicology had at least one drug present in their system. Those that tested positive for narcotics or sedatives had a significant negative correlation with seropositivity, while those on anti-depressants trended positive. These findings represent an important consideration for both the patients and first responders that treat trauma patients facing potential risk of respiratory infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2.

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

D614G Spike Variant Does Not Alter IgG, IgM, or IgA Spike Seroassay Performance

Emergence of a new variant of spike protein (D614G) with increased infectivity and transmissibility has prompted many to analyze the potential role of this variant in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. When a new variant emerges, there is a concern regarding whether an individual exposed to one variant of a virus will have cross-reactive immune memory to the second variant. Accordingly, we analyzed the serologic reactivity of D614 (original) and G614 variant spike proteins. We found that antibodies from a high-incidence population in New York City reacted both toward the original D614 spike and the G614 spike variant. These data suggest that patients who have been exposed to either SARS-CoV-2 variant have humoral immunity that can respond against both variants. This is an important finding both for SARS-CoV-2 disease biology and for potential antibody-based therapeutics.

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections display specific IgG Fc structures

The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused a public health crisis that is exacerbated by our poor understanding of correlates of immunity. SARS-CoV-2 infection can cause Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), with a spectrum of symptoms ranging from asymptomatic carriage to life threatening pneumonia and cytokine dysregulation [1-3]. Although antibodies have been shown in a variety of in vitro assays to promote coronavirus infections through mechanisms requiring interactions between IgG antibodies and Fc gamma receptors (Fc{gamma}Rs), the relevance of these observations to coronavirus infections in humans is not known [4-7]. In light of ongoing clinical trials examining convalescent serum therapy for COVID-19 patients and expedited SARS-CoV-2 vaccine testing in humans, it is essential to clarify the role of antibodies in the pathogenesis of COVID-19. Here we show that adults with PCR-diagnosed COVID-19 produce IgG antibodies with a specific Fc domain repertoire that is characterized by reduced fucosylation, a modification that enhances interactions with the activating Fc{gamma}R, Fc{gamma}RIIIa. Fc fucosylation was reduced when compared with SARS-CoV-2-seropositive children and relative to adults with symptomatic influenza virus infections. These results demonstrate an antibody correlate of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in adults and have implications for novel therapeutic strategies targeting Fc{gamma}RIIIa pathways.