The development of a stochastic physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for lead.

This presentation describes the development of a prototype Monte Carlo module for the physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for lead, created by Dr Ellen O'Flaherty. The module uses distributions for the following: exposure parameters (soil and dust concentrations, daily soil and ingestion rate, water lead concentration, water ingestion rate, air lead concentration, inhalation rate and dietary lead intake); absoption parameters; and key pharmacokinetic parameters (red blood binding capacity and half saturation concentration). Distributions can be specified as time-invariant or can change with age. Monte Carlo model predicted blood levels were calibrated to empirically measured blood lead levels for children living in Midvale, Utah (a milling/smelting community). The calibrated model was then evaluated using blood lead data from Palmerton, Pennsylvania (a town with a former smelter) and Sandy, Utah, (a town with a former smelter and slag piles). Our initial evaluation using distributions for exposure parameters showed that the model accurately predicted geometric (GM) blood lead levels of Palmerton and Sandy and slightly over predicted the GSD. Consideration of uncertainty in red blood cell parameters substantially inflated the GM. Future model development needs to address the correlation among parameters and the use of parameters for long-term exposure derived from short-term studies.

Recent trends in childhood blood lead levels.

Blood lead levels in children in the United States have declined through 1994, the date of the most recent National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In this investigation, the authors analyzed whether blood lead levels have changed since 1994 and quantified the magnitude of any change. The authors evaluated blood lead levels from 12 longitudinal data sets from 11 states and 1 city. Geometric mean blood lead levels declined between 4%/year and 14%/year in 8 of the data sets. No differences in decline rates were observed between data sets from states that had universal screening as a goal or that included repeat measures for an individual child and those data sets that did not. The authors' best estimate for these populations was a decline rate of 4-7%/year, which was comparable to the decline rate prior to 1994.