National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2020.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2020 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2020 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for specialty drugs, biosimilars, and diabetes medications. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2020 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2019, overall US pharmaceutical expenditures grew 5.4% compared to 2018, for a total of $507.9 billion. This increase was driven to similar degrees by prices, utilization, and new drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug in US expenditures in 2019, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $36.9 billion (a 1.5% increase from 2018) and $90.3 billion (an 11.8% increase from 2018) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals growth was driven by new products and price increases. Several new drugs that will likely influence spending are expected to be approved in 2020. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2020 we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 9.0% to 11.0% and 2.0% to 4.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2019.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2019 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2018 were obtained from the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2019 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2019 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made through a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: U.S. prescription sales in calendar year 2018 totaled $476.2 billion, a 5.5% increase from 2017 spending. The top 3 drugs by expenditures were adalimumab ($19.1 billion), insulin glargine ($9.3 billion), and etanercept ($8.0 billion). Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $35.8 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2017. Expenditures in clinics in 2018 increased by 13.0% to $80.5 billion. The increase in spending in nonfederal hospitals was largely driven by new products and increased utilization of existing products. The list of the top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics was dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We predict continued moderate growth of 4-6% in overall drug expenditures (across the entire U.S. market). We expect the clinic sector to continue to experience high (11-13%) growth in drug spending in 2019. Finally, for nonfederal hospitals we anticipate growth in the range of 3-5%. These estimates are at the national level. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2019.

Spending on Antineoplastic Agents in the United States, 2011 to 2016.

PURPOSE:: Recent cancer drug approvals are lauded as being more effective with relatively fewer adverse effects, but these treatments come with a great cost to the US health care system. There is little information on recent trends in actual antineoplastic expenditures representative of the whole US health care system or by sector. Therefore, the objective of this study was to describe antineoplastic expenditures in the United States by year and sector. METHODS:: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study of IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS) National Sales Perspective data for the period of January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2016. Actual expenditures were totaled by health care sector and calendar year, then adjusted for medical-cost inflation to 2016 dollars. Growth was calculated as the percentage increase from the previous year. RESULTS:: Total expenditures of antineoplastic agents across all channels grew from $26.8 billion in 2011 to $42.1 billion in 2016. Antineoplastic spending increased 12.2% in 2016 (compared with the previous year), followed by 15.6% in 2015, 13.4% in 2014, 6.3% in 2013, and 0.4% in 2012. Throughout the study period, 96.5% of total antineoplastic expenditures occurred within clinics, mail-order pharmacies, nonfederal hospitals, and retail pharmacies. CONCLUSION:: Antineoplastic expenditures are expected to increase because of continuing development and approval of costly targeted cancer therapies. Cost containment and utilization management strategies must be balanced so as not to restrict access or disrupt innovation. Future policies should focus on ensuring safe and appropriate use of antineoplastics while balancing long-term drug costs.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2018.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2018 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2017 were obtained from the IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS) National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2018 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2018 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2017 calendar year were $455.9 billion, a 1.7% increase compared with 2016. The top drug based on expenditures was adalimumab ($17.1 billion), followed by insulin glargine and etanercept. Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $34.2 billion, a 0.7% decrease in 2017 compared with 2016. Expenditures in clinics increased 10.9%, to a total of $70.8 billion. The decrease in spending in nonfederal hospitals was driven by lower utilization. The top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics were dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We project a 3.0-5.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 0.0-2.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2018. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2018.

Antibiotic Expenditures by Medication, Class, and Healthcare Setting in the United States, 2010-2015.

Background: Improving antibiotic use has the potential to decrease healthcare costs by reducing the incidence of antibiotic-resistant infections, antibiotic-associated adverse events, and expenditures due to unnecessary prescriptions. Antibiotic expenditures in 2009 totaled $10.7 billion in the United States. Since then, national and local antibiotic stewardship initiatives have grown. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in antibiotic expenditures by healthcare setting in the United States between 2010 and 2015. Methods: Systemic (nontopical) antibiotic expenditures from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database. These data represent a statistically valid projection of US medication purchases. Regression analyses evaluated trends in expenditures over the study period. Results: Antibiotic expenditures totaled $56.0 billion over the 6-year period; the majority (59.1%) of expenditures were associated with the outpatient setting. Overall antibiotic expenditures in 2015 ($8.8 billion) were 16.6% lower than in 2010 ($10.6 billion). Antibiotic expenditures similarly decreased in the community by 25.5% (P = .05), but outpatient clinics and mail service pharmacy expenditures experienced significant growth (148% and 67% increase, respectively; P < .01 for both). In 2015, 16.5% of antibiotic expenditures in the community were for parenteral formulations, an increase of 25%. Conclusions: From 2010 to 2015, antibiotic expenditures decreased. The majority of antibiotic expenditures were in the outpatient setting, specifically community pharmacies. Expenditures for intravenous agents in the community are increasing and may represent increased use. These results reinforce the importance of antibiotic stewardship efforts across the spectrum of healthcare.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2017.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2017 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2016 were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2017, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2017 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2016 calendar year were $448.2 billion, a 5.8% increase compared with 2015. More than half of the increase resulted from price hikes of existing drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug overall in 2016 expenditures ($13.6 billion); in clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $63.7 billion (an 11.9% increase from 2015) and $34.5 billion (a 3.3% increase from 2015), respectively. In nonfederal hospitals and clinics, growth in spending was driven primarily by price increases of existing drugs and increased volume, respectively. CONCLUSION: We project a 6.0-8.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, an 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 3.0-5.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2017. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2017.

Spending on Hepatitis C Antivirals in the United States, 2009-2015.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: New hepatitis C virus (HCV) antivirals have been shown to be highly effective with minimal adverse effects, but they are costly. Little is known, however, about the impact of the new HCV antivirals on expenditures in the overall U.S. health care system or by health care sector. Thus the objective of this study was to describe HCV antiviral expenditures by agent, year, and health care sector. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. DATA SOURCE: QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives data for the period of January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2015, were used to describe HCV antiviral expenditures. HCV antiviral expenditures grew each year from $78 million in 2009 to $18 billion in 2015, except during 2013 when spending on HCV drugs dropped by $684 million (41%) compared with 2012. Although most expenditures in 2009 and 2010 were for interferons, this shifted to telaprevir in 2011-2013 and sofosbuvir-containing regimens in 2014-2015. Mail service and community pharmacies were associated with most of the expenditures throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: New HCV antivirals are driving the increased expenditures for this class. Decreased expenditures in 2013 may have been secondary to delaying HCV treatment until new therapies received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (termed "warehousing"). With continued drug development and approval of HCV therapies, expenditures are expected to continue to increase, barring actions by payers that may impede this trend. Medication policies guiding HCV treatment should focus on safety and efficacy while balancing the long-term costs of HCV.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2016.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2016 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2015 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2016, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2016 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2015 calendar year were $419.4 billion, which was 11.7% higher than sales in 2014. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $56.7 billion (a 15.9% increase) and $33.6 billion (a 10.7% increase), respectively, in 2015. In nonfederal hospitals, growth in spending was driven primarily by increased prices for existing drugs. The hepatitis C combination drug ledipasvir-sofosbuvir was the top drug overall in terms of 2015 expenditures ($14.3 billion); in both clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Individual drugs with the greatest increases in expenditures in 2015 were specialty agents and older generics; these agents are likely to continue to influence total spending in 2016. CONCLUSION: We project an 11-13% increase in total drug expenditures overall in 2016, with a 15-17% increase in clinic spending and a 10-12% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns in projecting their own organization's drug spending in 2016.

Influenza Antiviral Expenditures and Outpatient Prescriptions in the United States, 2003-2012.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of influenza antiviral use are controversial, with recent analyses suggesting potentially limited value. Thus, the objectives of this study were to describe influenza antiviral expenditures overall and by health care setting over a 10-year period (2003-2012) and to assess the correlation between outpatient influenza antiviral prescription use and influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient visits. DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. DATA SOURCES: IMS Health National Sales Perspectives and Xponent databases and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ILINet national influenza surveillance system database. PATIENTS: All prescriptions for oseltamivir, rimantadine, or zanamivir from community pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, clinics, nonfederal hospitals, and other health care settings (federal hospitals, military facilities, jails and prisons, universities, staff-model health maintenance organizations, veterinary hospitals and clinics, and long-term care facilities) between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2012. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prescribing rates were calculated (prescriptions/1000 persons) for each year from 2003 to 2012 by using U.S. Census Bureau data. Influenza season was defined as July 1-June 30 of each calendar year. Linear regression assessed the correlation between influenza antiviral expenditures, prescription use, and ILI diagnoses. From 2003 to 2012, influenza antiviral drug expenditures accounted for $3.74 billion, with the majority from community pharmacies. After adjusting for inflation, no growth was observed for expenditures. A total of 32.8 million influenza antiviral prescriptions were dispensed from community pharmacies during the study period, and these prescriptions experienced 133.2% growth from 2003 to 2012. One third of expenditures and one quarter of dispensed prescriptions were in 2009. Influenza seasons were correlated with ILI and antiviral prescriptions. Annual community pharmacy expenditures were also associated with influenza antiviral prescriptions dispensed over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: Influenza antivirals totaled $3.74 billion in the United States from 2003 to 2012, with the majority in 2009 and from community pharmacies. Influenza antivirals constituted a small proportion of total medication expenditures, but unforeseen pandemics resulted in unusually high use and expenditures. Influenza antiviral prescriptions dispensed from community pharmacies were associated with ILI and drug expenditures.

Accuracy of annual prescription drug expenditure forecasts in AJHP.

PURPOSE: The accuracy of the forecasts of drug expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics published annually in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy (AJHP) relative to the accuracy of forecasts produced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) was evaluated. METHODS: AJHP-published forecasts of drug expenditure growth for nonfederal hospitals (for the years 2003 through 2013) and clinics (for the years 2004 through 2013) were compared with data on actual growth. Data on actual and projected growth published by CMS were analyzed for the years 2003 through 2012. The mean absolute error and directional accuracy of the forecasts published in AJHP for nonfederal hospitals and clinics and the CMS forecasts were determined and compared. RESULTS: Actual spending growth was within the range of the forecast published in AJHP for 2 of 11 years for nonfederal hospitals and for 3 of 10 years for clinics; the forecasts for nonfederal hospitals and clinics were directionally accurate 27.3% and 60.0% of the time, respectively. The mean absolute errors of the AJHP-published drug expenditure forecasts for the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors were 2.0 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The CMS forecasts of overall drug spending were directionally accurate 70% of the time, and the mean absolute error (2.2 percentage points) was not statistically different from that of either sector forecast published in AJHP. CONCLUSION: The annual drug expenditure forecasts published in AJHP have been reasonably accurate for predicting growth in prescription expenditures when compared with other available drug expenditure forecasts.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2015.

PURPOSE: An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2015. METHODS: Prescription drug expenditure data through September 2014 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and were analyzed descriptively. Other factors that may influence prescription spending in hospitals and clinics in 2015, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed. Expenditure projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 30, 2014, were $360.7 billion, 12.2% higher than during the previous 12 months. With $6.6 billion in expenditures in the first 9 months of 2014, sofosbuvir topped the overall list of drugs based on sales, followed by aripiprazole and insulin glargine. Pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals rose by 13.3% and 4.0%, respectively. For the first 9 months of 2014, the top drugs based on expenditures were infliximab, pegfilgrastim, and epoetin alfa in clinics and infliximab, rituximab, and pegfilgrastim in hospitals. Specialty drugs continued to constitute an increasing portion of drug expenditures and will contribute to higher expenditures in 2015. CONCLUSION: Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to continue to increase in 2015. The projected increases in total drug expenditures are 7-9% across all settings, 12-14% in clinics, and 5-7% in hospitals. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2015.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2014.

PURPOSE: An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2014. METHODS: Trends in pharmaceutical expenditures and developments likely to influence future spending, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed using data from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. Projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 2013 were approximately $326 billion, 0.7% lower than sales during the previous 12 months; pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals grew by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Vaccines were among the products driving large sales increases in clinic settings, with alteplase and pegfilgrastim topping the list of fast-growing drugs by hospital expenditures. Few new drug approvals anticipated in 2014 are expected to result in major expenditures by hospitals and clinics. Expansion of access to health care and other changes related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as well as continued improvement in the U.S. economy, may drive growth in pharmaceutical spending over the next 12-24 months. CONCLUSION: Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to rebound in 2014, with a projected 3-5% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings this year, including a 5-7% increase in clinic spending and a 1-3% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug-utilization patterns to determine their respective organization's anticipated spending in 2014.