Childhood infections and the risk of asthma: a longitudinal study over 37 years.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined common childhood infections and adult asthma. We examined associations between childhood infectious diseases, childhood pneumonia, and current, persisting, and incident asthma to middle age. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS). A history of pneumonia was ascertained from their parents when the TAHS participants were 7 years old. Measles, rubella, mumps, chickenpox, diphtheria, and pertussis were identified from school medical records. Associations with current, persisting, or incident asthma were examined using regression techniques. RESULTS: Greater infectious diseases load was negatively associated with persisting asthma at all ages. Individually, pertussis (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.28-1.00) was negatively associated with asthma persisting to age 13 years, chickenpox (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38-0.88) was negatively associated with asthma persisting to age 32 years, and rubella was negatively associated with asthma persisting to ages 32 (aOR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.31-0.96) and 44 years (aOR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35-0.82). Pertussis was associated with preadolescent incident asthma (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.80; 95% CI, 1.10-2.96), whereas measles was associated with adolescent incident asthma (aHR, 1.66; 1.06-2.56). Childhood pneumonia was associated with current asthma at ages 7 (aOR, 3.12; 95% CI, 2.61-3.75) and 13 years (aOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.75), an association stronger in those without than those with eczema (aOR, 3.46; 95% CI, 2.83-4.24 vs aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.38-3.12). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, childhood infectious diseases protected against asthma persisting in later life, but pertussis and measles were associated with new-onset asthma after childhood. Measles and pertussis immunization might lead to a reduction in incident asthma in later life.

Early effect of the HPV vaccination programme on cervical abnormalities in Victoria, Australia: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Australia introduced a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine for all women aged 12-26 years between 2007 and 2009. We analysed trends in cervical abnormalities in women in Victoria, Australia, before and after introduction of the vaccination programme. METHODS: With data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry between 2003 and 2009, we compared the incidence of histopathologically defined high-grade cervical abnormalities (HGAs, lesions coded as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse or adenocarcinoma in situ; primary outcome) and low-grade cytological abnormalities (LGAs) in five age groups before (Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2007) and after (April 1, 2007, to Dec 31, 2009) the vaccination programme began. Binary comparisons between the two periods were done with Fisher's exact test. Poisson piecewise regression analysis was used to compare incident rate trends. FINDINGS: After the introduction of the vaccination programme, we recorded a decrease in the incidence of HGAs by 0·38% (95% CI 0·61-0·16) in girls younger than 18 years. This decrease was progressive and significantly different to the linear trend in incidence before introduction of the vaccination (incident rate ratio 1·14, 1·00-1·30, p=0·05). No similar temporal decline was recorded for LGAs or in older age groups. INTERPRETATION: This is the first report of a decrease in incidence of HGAs within 3 years after the implementation of a population-wide HPV vaccination programme. Linkage between vaccination and screening registers is needed to confirm that this ecological observation is attributable to vaccination and to monitor participation in screening among vaccinated women. FUNDING: None.