Calculation of livestock biomass and value by province in Indonesia: Key information to support policymaking.

Accurate estimations of the biomass and value of livestock in Indonesia are of great use in supporting investment decisions by the public and private sector and as a basis for estimating the losses due to animal disease. Biomass and the partial direct use value for key livestock species (cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens) for all provinces of Indonesia were derived from secondary data using a novel spreadsheet-based model. Using beef cattle as an example, we also explored the use of a herd dynamics model to validate base data on populations and productivity used to generate biomass values, and these were found to be generally robust. Total partial direct use value of livestock is estimated to be almost USD54 billion in 2021, comprising almost USD33 billion of population value and almost USD21 billion of production value. Beef cattle account for 44% of total value and chicken (broiler, layer and native chickens) account for a further 36% of the total. Breaking the data down by province reveals the regional importance of some livestock types that are of relatively minor importance nationally (pigs in East Nusa Tenggara and sheep in West Java). It also reveals the importance of livestock in the poorest provinces of Indonesia, where livestock acts as a store of wealth and serves socio-cultural purposes.

Rationalising development of classification systems describing livestock production systems for disease burden analysis within the Global Burden of Animal Diseases programme.

The heterogeneity that exists across the global spectrum of livestock production means that livestock productivity, efficiency, health expenditure and health outcomes vary across production systems. To ensure that burden of disease estimates are specific to the represented livestock population and people reliant upon them, livestock populations need to be systematically classified into different types of production system, reflective of the heterogeneity across production systems. This paper explores the data currently available of livestock production system classifications and animal health through a scoping review as a foundation for the development of a framework that facilitates more specific estimates of livestock disease burdens. A top-down framework to classification is outlined based on a systematic review of existing classification methods and provides a basis for simple grouping of livestock at global scale. The proposed top-down classification framework, which is dominated by commodity focus of production along with intensity of resource use, may have less relevance at the sub-national level in some jurisdictions and will need to be informed and adapted with information on how countries themselves categorize livestock and their production systems. The findings in this study provide a foundation for analysing animal health burdens across a broad level of production systems. The developed framework will fill a major gap in how livestock production and health are currently approached and analysed.

Approximating the global economic (market) value of farmed animals.

Understanding the global economic importance of farmed animals to society is essential as a baseline for decision making about future food systems. We estimated the annual global economic (market) value of live animals and primary production outputs, e.g., meat, eggs, milk, from terrestrial and aquatic farmed animal systems. The results suggest that the total global market value of farmed animals ranges between 1.61 and 3.3 trillion USD (2018) and is expected to be similar in absolute terms to the market value of crop outputs (2.57 trillion USD). The cattle sector dominates the market value of farmed animals. The study highlights the need to consider other values of farmed animals to society, e.g., finance/insurance value and cultural value, in decisions about the sector's future.

On-farm investments into dairy cow health: evidence from 15 case study countries.

Managing investments in dairy cow health at a national and global scale, requires an improved understanding of current on-farm expenses for cow health (e.g., expenditure for medicine and veterinary consultations). The aim of this study was to assess on-farm health investments for typical dairy farms in 15 case study countries, including Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, India, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Kenya, New Zealand, Uganda, UK, Uruguay, and USA. The study was conducted using a descriptive analysis of a secondary data set that was obtained from the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN). The results suggest that health expenditures take up a relatively small proportion (<10%) of the annual total production costs per cow across all countries in the sample. The means of production costs (e.g., feed, machinery) can take up to 90% of the total production costs for highly intensive systems, while these costs can be as low as 9% for extensive systems. This study highlights the importance of understanding on-farm animal health investments as a contribution to improved national and global decision making about animal health in the dairy sector.

Livestock health and disease economics: a scoping review of selected literature.

Animal diseases in production and subsistence environments have the potential to negatively affect consumers, producers, and economies as a whole. A growing global demand for animal sourced food requires safe and efficient production systems. Understanding the burden of animal disease and the distribution of burden throughout a value chain informs policy that promotes safe consumption and efficient markets, as well as providing more effective pathways for investment. This paper surveys existing knowledge on the burden of animal disease across economic categories of production, prevention and treatment, animal welfare, and trade and regulation. Our scoping review covers 192 papers across peer-reviewed journals and reports published by organizations. We find there exists a gap in knowledge in evaluating what the global burdens of animal diseases are and how these burdens are distributed in value chains. We also point to a need for creating an analytical framework based on established methods that guides future evaluation of animal disease burden, which will provide improved access to information on animal health impacts.

Characterizing Ethiopian cattle production systems for disease burden analysis.

This paper addresses knowledge gaps in the biomass, productivity and value of livestock for the pastoral, mixed crop-livestock and specialized dairy systems in Ethiopia. Population size, reproductive performance, mortality, offtake and productivity of cattle were calculated from official statistics and a meta-analysis of data available in the published literature. This information was then used to estimate biomass and output value for 2020 using a herd dynamics model. The mixed-crop livestock system dominates the Ethiopian cattle sector, with 55 million cattle (78% total population) and contributing 8.52 billion USD to the economy through the provision of meat, milk, hides and draft power in 2021. By comparison, the pastoral (13.4 million head) and specialized dairy (1.8 million head) systems are much smaller. Productivity varied between different production systems, with differences in live body weight, productivity and prices from different sources. The estimated total cattle biomass was 14.8 billion kg in 2021, i.e., 11.3 billion kg in the mixed crop-livestock system, 2.60 billion kg in the pastoral system and 0.87 billion kg in the specialized dairy system. The total economic asset values of cattle in the mixed crop-livestock, pastoral and specialized dairy systems were estimated as 24.8, 5.28 and 1.37 billion USD, respectively. The total combined output value (e.g., beef, milk and draft power) of cattle production was 11.9 billion USD, which was 11.2% of the GDP in Ethiopia in 2021. This work quantifies the importance of cattle in the Ethiopian economy. These estimates of herd structure, reproductive performance, productivity, biomass, and economic value for cattle production systems in Ethiopia can be used to inform high-level policy, revealing under-performance and areas to prioritize and provide a basis for further technical analysis, such as disease burden.

Population, biomass, and economic value of small ruminants in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has a large population of small ruminants (sheep and goats) which are mostly kept in traditional subsistence production systems that are poorly described. Understanding these different systems, their population structure, biomass, production, and economic value is essential for further analysis and effective policy making. The objective of this study was to quantify these parameters for small ruminant production systems in Ethiopia to use them as a basis for analysis of disease burden within the Global Burden of Animal Diseases program. Population structure and trends of small ruminants were analyzed using data from ten annual national agriculture surveys. A stochastic herd model was used to simulate the small ruminant population, biomass, and economic value. The model was parameterised stochastically using data from statistical databases and the literature, and sensitivity analysis of main model outputs to the stochastic inputs was done. Small ruminants are held across the country mainly managed under two major production systems: the crop-livestock mixed system and the pastoral system. The small ruminant population has grown in the past 10 years with an average annual growth rate of 4.6% for sheep and 6.7% for goats. The national average small ruminant population for 2021 was projected at 96.4 (range 95.3-97.7) million heads and the mean stock biomass was about 2,129 (range 1,680-2,686) million kilograms. The monetary value of the small ruminant population was estimated at USD 5,953 (range 4,369-7,765) million. The annual monetary value of small ruminant production outputs was estimated at USD 1,969 (range 1,245-2,857) million. Although the small ruminant population is large and rapidly growing, contributing about 2% of national annual GDP, the sub-sector is characterized by low productivity, low offtake rates, and a limited range of production outputs with no signs of intensification. Efforts should be made to reduce small ruminant mortality, improve fertility, and better utilize products such as milk to improve the livelihoods of rural households and to benefit the national economy. The approaches developed in this study can be replicated in other systems and countries to reveal trends in the size and value of livestock systems, providing a better understanding of its economic importance and performance.

Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Heat stress in animals is one of the major climate change impacts on domesticated livestock raised in both intensive and extensive production systems. At temperatures higher than an animal's thermoneutral zone, heat stress can affect liveweight gain, milk yield, and fertility. Animal welfare may also be negatively affected by heat stress even in the absence of effects on productivity, at least in the short term. METHODS: We estimated the comparative statics change in the value of cattle milk and meat production from heat stress-induced losses at the global level, using climate scenario outputs for the middle (2045) and end of the century (2085). The loss estimates are based on bioenergetic equations that relate changes in dry matter intake (DMI) to both cold and hot, humid weather. DMI changes were estimated using CMIP6 climate data and linked to a global dataset containing information on livestock production systems, animal numbers, and region-specific and system-specific animal diets. Changes in DMI were converted to changes in milk and meat production and valued using early 20th century world prices (ie, constant 2005 US dollars). FINDINGS: For a high greenhouse-gas emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), production losses from heat stress were estimated to amount to $39·94 billion (95% CI 34·39-45·49 billion) per year by the end of the century, or 9·8% of the value of production of meat and milk from cattle in 2005. For a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), the value of production losses was $14·89 billion (12·62-16·95 billion) per year, or 3·7% of 2005 value. In both scenarios, losses in most tropical regions were projected to be far greater than they were in temperate regions. INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the potential magnitude and extent of the adaptation efforts that will be necessary to combat the effects of increasing heat stress on cattle production during this century if food security challenges are to be minimised. Adaptations include switching to more heat-tolerant breeds and provision of shade, ventilation, and cooling systems. FUNDING: CGIAR Trust Fund and bilateral donors.

Increases in extreme heat stress in domesticated livestock species during the twenty-first century.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to have major impacts on domesticated livestock, including increased heat stress in animals in both intensive and extensive livestock systems. We estimate the changes in the number of extreme heat stress days per year for animals raised outdoors that can be expected in the major domesticated animal species (cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, and pigs) across the globe during this century. We used the temperature humidity index as a proxy for heat stress, calculated using temperature and relative humidity data collated from an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model output for mid and end century. We estimate changes in the proportions of different livestock species that may be at increased risk of extreme heat stress under two contrasting greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results are discussed in relation to changes in the suitability of different climate conditions for domesticated livestock during the current century. We find that by end century, extreme heat stress risk is projected to increase for all livestock species in many parts of the tropics and some of the temperate zones, and to become climatically more widespread, compared to 2000. Although adaptation options exist for both intensive and extensive livestock production systems, the increasing pervasiveness of extreme heat stress risk in the future will seriously challenge the viability of outdoor livestock keeping, particularly in the lower latitudes in lower and middle-income countries where the costs of adaptation may be challenging to address.

Carbon myopia: The urgent need for integrated social, economic and environmental action in the livestock sector.

Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been-somewhat myopically-on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co-benefits and trade-offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple-bottom line benefit with medium-high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co-benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems-based, multi-metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems-aligned 'socio-economic planetary boundaries' offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross-scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas.

Closing yield gaps in smallholder goat production systems in Ethiopia and India.

Small ruminants such as goats are an important source of income for smallholder farmers in South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa: they may be kept as a stepping stone to owning larger and higher-value animals such as cattle or buffalo, or provide a more-profitable and less-risky alternative in marginal or densely populated areas where access to feed resources are limited. However, smallholder goat production in these areas is often low due to low growth and reproduction rates and high animal mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for different intervention packages to increase yields and profitability of goat meat production in Ethiopia and India. Packages were based on improved nutrition, reduced flock mortality from improved control of health and diseases, and replacing indigenous livestock with improved goat breeds. Household modelling was used to simulate the effects of interventions on goat production and household income in the extensive lowland grazing zone and highland mixed crop-livestock zones of Ethiopia, and the extensive arid zone of India. Our analysis showed that there are opportunities to increase goat meat production in both countries. Reproduction, liveweight gain and survival rates can be increased through better nutrition, genetics and healthcare, but the biggest increase in production and profits occurred when multiple interventions were combined. Importantly, interventions resulting in the biggest increases in goat meat production or number of animals sold did not always give the highest profits.

Yield gap analyses to estimate attainable bovine milk yields and evaluate options to increase production in Ethiopia and India.

Livestock provides an important source of income and nourishment for around one billion rural households worldwide. Demand for livestock food products is increasing, especially in developing countries, and there are opportunities to increase production to meet local demand and increase farm incomes. Estimating the scale of livestock yield gaps and better understanding factors limiting current production will help to define the technological and investment needs in each livestock sector. The aim of this paper is to quantify livestock yield gaps and evaluate opportunities to increase dairy production in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, using case studies from Ethiopia and India. We combined three different methods in our approach. Benchmarking and a frontier analysis were used to estimate attainable milk yields based on survey data. Household modelling was then used to simulate the effects of various interventions on dairy production and income. We tested interventions based on improved livestock nutrition and genetics in the extensive lowland grazing zone and highland mixed crop-livestock zones of Ethiopia, and the intensive irrigated and rainfed zones of India. Our analyses indicate that there are considerable yield gaps for dairy production in both countries, and opportunities to increase production using the interventions tested. In some cases, combined interventions could increase production past currently attainable livestock yields.