Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study.

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

Factors associated with intention to smoke cigarettes among never smoker school going adolescents in Zambia.

Background: Cigarette smoking intention is a strong predictor of cigarette smoking initiation. There is limited data on predictors of cigarette smoking intentions among adolescents in developing countries. Objective: To determine factors associated with cigarettes smoking intentions among never-smoked adolescents. Methods: The study utilized the Zambia 2011 Global Youth Tobacco Survey dataset on adolescents. Results: Being in grade nine compared to grade seven (AOR 0.43, 95%CI 0.23-0.82). Having a smoking father (AOR 2.38, 95%CI 1.25-453) mother (AOR 11.77, 95%CI 4.16-33.33), or both parents (AOR 7.05, 95%CI 2.91-17.10) showed significantly higher chance of having smoking intentions than having non-smoker parents. Also, having some (AOR 1.97, 95%CI 1.12-3.47), most (AOR 5.37, 95%CI 2.82-10.25), or all (AOR 3.75, 95%CI 1.64-8.56) smoker close friend was significantly associated with smoking intention compared to having none-smoker friends. Being around others who smoked in out-door places 1-2 days (AOR 2.16, 95%CI 1.19-3.93), 5-6 days (AOR 3.21, 95%CI 1.51-6.83) and 7 days/week (AOR 2.73, 95%CI 1.41-5.30) were also associated with one's intention to smoke cigarettes compared to not being around smokers in outdoor public places 7 days/week. Conclusion: Having smoking parents, smoking friends or around people who smoke in public places were associated with cigarette smoking intentions among adolescents.

Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Zambia: An Application of Machine Learning.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has wreaked havoc globally, resulting in millions of cases and deaths. The objective of this study was to predict mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Zambia using machine learning (ML) methods based on factors that have been shown to be predictive of mortality and thereby improve pandemic preparedness. This research employed seven powerful ML models that included decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression (LR), Naïve Bayes (NB), gradient boosting (GB), and XGBoost (XGB). These classifiers were trained on 1,433 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from various health facilities in Zambia. The performances achieved by these models were checked using accuracy, recall, F1-Score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC_AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (PRC_AUC), and other metrics. The best-performing model was the XGB which had an accuracy of 92.3%, recall of 94.2%, F1-Score of 92.4%, and ROC_AUC of 97.5%. The pairwise Mann-Whitney U-test analysis showed that the second-best model (GB) and the third-best model (RF) did not perform significantly worse than the best model (XGB) and had the following: GB had an accuracy of 91.7%, recall of 94.2%, F1-Score of 91.9%, and ROC_AUC of 97.1%. RF had an accuracy of 90.8%, recall of 93.6%, F1-Score of 91.0%, and ROC_AUC of 96.8%. Other models showed similar results for the same metrics checked. The study successfully derived and validated the selected ML models and predicted mortality effectively with reasonably high performance in the stated metrics. The feature importance analysis found that knowledge of underlying health conditions about patients' hospital length of stay (LOS), white blood cell count, age, and other factors can help healthcare providers offer lifesaving services on time, improve pandemic preparedness, and decongest health facilities in Zambia and other countries with similar settings.

Estimated incidence and transmission intensity of rubella infection in Zambia pre-vaccine era 2005-2016.

The rubella disease burden in Zambia may be under-estimated. Using models, we describe the transmission dynamics, determine the incidence estimates and assess the level of underestimation of the real burden of rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period 2005-2016. This study used both the deterministic compartmental model and likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework to describe the epidemiology of rubella. A total of 1313 cases of rubella were confirmed with the highest annual number of 255 new cases recorded in 2008. However, 2014 recorded the highest monthly median positivity rate of 9.0%. The observed median rubella cases were 5.5. There was a seasonal pattern in the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed rubella, with higher test positivity rates of rubella infection usually recorded in the months of September, October and November. The modelled monthly median incidence of rubella infection among the general population was 76 and 20 among pregnant women. The incidence of rubella among the non-pregnant women was 44. The average effective reproductive number (Rt) between 2005 and 2016 was estimated as 1.2 with the peak of infection occurring in 2016. The measles surveillance system underestimates the observed burden of rubella. A mass vaccination campaign conducted between January and July is recommended.

First COVID-19 case in Zambia - Comparative phylogenomic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 detected in African countries.

Since its first discovery in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has spread rapidly worldwide. While African countries were relatively spared initially, the initial low incidence of COVID-19 cases was not sustained for long due to continuing travel links between China, Europe and Africa. In preparation, Zambia had applied a multisectoral national epidemic disease surveillance and response system resulting in the identification of the first case within 48 h of the individual entering the country by air travel from a trip to France. Contact tracing showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection was contained within the patient's household, with no further spread to attending health care workers or community members. Phylogenomic analysis of the patient's SARS-CoV-2 strain showed that it belonged to lineage B.1.1., sharing the last common ancestor with SARS-CoV-2 strains recovered from South Africa. At the African continental level, our analysis showed that B.1 and B.1.1 lineages appear to be predominant in Africa. Whole genome sequence analysis should be part of all surveillance and case detection activities in order to monitor the origin and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages across Africa.

First 100 Persons with COVID-19 - Zambia, March 18-April 28, 2020.

Zambia is a landlocked, lower-middle income country in southern Africa, with a population of 17 million (1). The first known cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Zambia occurred in a married couple who had traveled to France and were subject to port-of-entry surveillance and subsequent remote monitoring of travelers with a history of international travel for 14 days after arrival. They were identified as having suspected cases on March 18, 2020, and tested for COVID-19 after developing respiratory symptoms during the 14-day monitoring period. In March 2020, the Zambia National Public Health Institute (ZNPHI) defined a suspected case of COVID-19 as 1) an acute respiratory illness in a person with a history of international travel during the 14 days preceding symptom onset; or 2) acute respiratory illness in a person with a history of contact with a person with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the 14 days preceding symptom onset; or 3) severe acute respiratory illness requiring hospitalization; or 4) being a household or close contact of a patient with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. This definition was adapted from World Health Organization (WHO) interim guidance issued March 20, 2020, on global surveillance for COVID-19 (2) to also include asymptomatic contacts of persons with confirmed COVID-19. Persons with suspected COVID-19 were identified through various mechanisms, including port-of-entry surveillance, contact tracing, health care worker (HCW) testing, facility-based inpatient screening, community-based screening, and calls from the public into a national hotline administered by the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit and ZNPHI. Port-of-entry surveillance included an arrival screen consisting of a temperature scan, report of symptoms during the preceding 14 days, and collection of a history of travel and contact with persons with confirmed COVID-19 in the 14 days before arrival in Zambia, followed by daily remote telephone monitoring for 14 days. Travelers were tested for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, if they were symptomatic upon arrival or developed symptoms during the 14-day monitoring period. Persons with suspected COVID-19 were tested as soon as possible after evaluation for respiratory symptoms or within 7 days of last known exposure (i.e., travel or contact with a confirmed case). All COVID-19 diagnoses were confirmed using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing (SARS-CoV-2 Nucleic Acid Detection Kit, Maccura) of nasopharyngeal specimens; all patients with confirmed COVID-19 were admitted into institutional isolation at the time of laboratory confirmation, which was generally within 36 hours. COVID-19 patients were deemed recovered and released from isolation after two consecutive PCR-negative test results ≥24 hours apart. A Ministry of Health memorandum was released on April 13, 2020, mandating testing in public facilities of 1) all persons admitted to medical and pediatric wards regardless of symptoms; 2) all patients being admitted to surgical and obstetric wards, regardless of symptoms; 3) any outpatient with fever, cough, or shortness of breath; and 4) any facility or community death in a person with respiratory symptoms, and 5) biweekly screening of all HCWs in isolation centers and health facilities where persons with COVID-19 had been evaluated. This report describes the first 100 COVID-19 cases reported in Zambia, during March 18-April 28, 2020.

Konzo outbreak in the Western Province of Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the etiology of an outbreak of spastic paraparesis among women and children in the Western Province of Zambia suspected to be konzo. METHODS: We conducted an outbreak investigation of individuals from Mongu District, Western Province, Zambia, who previously developed lower extremity weakness. Cases were classified with the World Health Organization definition of konzo. Active case finding was conducted through door-to-door evaluation in affected villages and sensitization at local health clinics. Demographic, medical, and dietary history was used to identify common exposures in all cases. Urine and blood specimens were taken to evaluate for konzo and alternative etiologies. RESULTS: We identified 32 cases of konzo exclusively affecting children 6 to 14 years of age and predominantly females >14 years of age. Fourteen of 15 (93%) cases ≥15 years of age were female, 11 (73%) of whom were breastfeeding at the time of symptom onset. Cassava was the most commonly consumed food (median [range] 14 [4-21] times per week), while protein-rich foods were consumed <1 time per week for all cases. Of the 30 patients providing urine specimens, median thiocyanate level was 281 (interquartile range 149-522) µmol/L, and 73% of urine samples had thiocyanate levels >136 µmol/L, the 95th percentile of the US population in 2013 to 2014. CONCLUSION: This investigation revealed the first documented cases of konzo in Zambia, occurring in poor communities with diets high in cassava and low in protein, consistent with previous descriptions from neighboring countries.

Epidemiology of acute rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period (2005-2016) as a baseline for monitoring rubella epidemiology in the post-rubella vaccine introduction era.

BACKGROUND: Rubella is highly under reported in Zambia as in most sub-Saharan countries despite being a disease of major public health concern especially among women of childbearing age. In September 2016, Zambia introduced a combined measles-rubella vaccine in children 0-14 years. In this study, we estimated the proportion positive for acute rubella among suspected but negative measles cases between 2005 and 2016 and determined its correlates for monitoring rubella epidemiology post-rubella vaccine introduction. METHODS: In a retrospective study, 4497 measles IgM negative serum samples from 5686 clinically suspected measles cases were examined for rubella IgM antibodies using the Siemens, Enzygnost® ELISA kit at the national measles laboratory. Data on demographics, year and month of onset were extracted from the surveillance data. Multivariate logistic regression analysis using backward variable selection was conducted to determine independent predictors for acute rubella. The magnitude of association was estimated using adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: Overall, a proportion of 29.2% (1313/4497) affecting mostly those between 5 and 24 years was determined. Only age, province, month and year were independently associated with acute rubella. The regional proportions varied from 21.8-37.3% peaking in the month of October. Persons in the age group 10-14 years (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 2.43; 95% CI [2.01-2.95]) were more likely while those aged < 1 year less likely (AOR = 0.31; 95% CI [021-0.48]) to have acute rubella compared to those aged 25 years or older. Persons in 2010 were less likely (AOR = 0.12; CI [0.05, 0.28]) to have acute rubella compared to those in 2016. While acute rubella was more likely to occur between July and November compared to December, it was less likely to occur between February and May. CONCLUSIONS: Rubella virus was circulating in Zambia between 2005 and 2016 affecting mostly persons in the age group 5-24 years peaking in the hot dry season month of October. Although vaccination against rubella has been launched, these baseline data are important to provide a reference point when determining the impact of the vaccination program implemented.

An evaluation of the Zambia influenza sentinel surveillance system, 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, influenza surveillance has been established in several African countries including Zambia. However, information on the on data quality and reliability of established influenza surveillance systems in Africa are limited. Such information would enable countries to assess the performance of their surveillance systems, identify shortfalls for improvement and provide evidence of data reliability for policy making and public health interventions. METHODS: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines to evaluate the performance of the influenza surveillance system (ISS) in Zambia during 2011-2017 using 9 attributes: (i) data quality and completeness, (ii) timeliness, (iii) representativeness, (iv) flexibility, (v) simplicity, (vi) acceptability, (vii) stability, (viii) utility, and (ix) sustainability. Each attribute was evaluated using pre-defined indicators. For each indicator we obtained the proportion (expressed as percentage) of the outcome of interest over the total. A scale from 1 to 3 was used to provide a score for each attribute as follows: < 60% (as obtained in the calculation above) scored 1 (weak performance); 60-79% scored 2 (moderate performance); ≥80% scored 3 (good performance). An overall score for each attribute and the ISS was obtained by averaging the scores of all evaluated attributes. RESULTS: The overall mean score for the ISS in Zambia was 2.6. Key strengths of the system were the quality of data generated (score: 2.9), its flexibility (score: 3.0) especially to monitor viral pathogens other than influenza viruses, its simplicity (score: 2.8), acceptability (score: 3.0) and stability (score: 2.6) over the review period and its relatively low cost ($310,000 per annum). Identified weaknesses related mainly to geographic representativeness (score: 2.0), timeliness (score: 2.5), especially in shipment of samples from remote sites, and sustainability (score: 1.0) in the absence of external funds. CONCLUSIONS: The system performed moderately well in our evaluation. Key improvements would include improvements in the timeliness of samples shipments and geographical coverage. However, these improvements would result in increased cost and logistical complexity. The ISSS in Zambia is largely reliant on external funds and the acceptability of maintaining the surveillance system through national funds would require evaluation.

Evaluating the costs of cholera illness and cost-effectiveness of a single dose oral vaccination campaign in Lusaka, Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, for the very first time, the Ministry of Health in Zambia implemented a reactive outbreak response to control the spread of cholera and vaccinated at-risk populations with a single dose of Shancol-an oral cholera vaccine (OCV). This study aimed to assess the costs of cholera illness and determine the cost-effectiveness of the 2016 vaccination campaign. METHODOLOGY: From April to June 2017, we conducted a retrospective cost and cost-effectiveness analysis in three peri-urban areas of Lusaka. To estimate costs of illness from a household perspective, a systematic random sample of 189 in-patients confirmed with V. cholera were identified from Cholera Treatment Centre registers and interviewed for out-of-pocket costs. Vaccine delivery and health systems costs were extracted from financial records at the District Health Office and health facilities. The cost of cholera treatment was derived by multiplying the subsidized cost of drugs by the quantity administered to patients during hospitalisation. The cost-effectiveness analysis measured incremental cost-effectiveness ratio-cost per case averted, cost per life saved and cost per DALY averted-for a single dose OCV. RESULTS: The mean cost per administered vaccine was US$1.72. Treatment costs per hospitalized episode were US$14.49-US$18.03 for patients ≤15 years old and US$17.66-US$35.16 for older patients. Whereas households incurred costs on non-medical items such as communication, beverages, food and transport during illness, a large proportion of medical costs were borne by the health system. Assuming vaccine effectiveness of 88.9% and 63%, a life expectancy of 62 years and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$1,500, the costs per case averted were estimated US$369-US$532. Costs per life year saved ranged from US$18,515-US$27,976. The total cost per DALY averted was estimated between US$698-US$1,006 for patients ≤15 years old and US$666-US$1,000 for older patients. CONCLUSION: Our study determined that reactive vaccination campaign with a single dose of Shancol for cholera control in densely populated areas of Lusaka was cost-effective.

Acceptance of Cervical Cancer Screening and its Correlates Among Women of a Peri-Urban High-Density Residential Area in Ndola, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Zambia has one of the highest cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates in the world. Cervical cancer screening leads to reduction in the incidence of invasive disease. The objectives of the study were to determine the level of acceptance of cervical cancer screening and its correlates among women of a peri-urban high-density residential area in Ndola, Zambia. METHODS: A cross sectional study was conducted. With a population size of 12,000 women in reproductive age and using an expected frequency of 50 + 5% and at 95% confidence interval, the required sample size was 372. A stratified sampling method was used to select participants. Independent factors that were associated with the outcome were established using multi-variate logistic regression. Adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals are reported. RESULTS: In total, 355 out of 372 questionnaires were administered, achieving a response rate of 95.4%. Out of 355 participants, 9 (2.5%) had ever been screened for cervical cancer. In bivariate analyses, factors associated with screened were knowledge of body part affected, screening as a prevention tool, whether cervical cancer was curable in its early stages or not, awareness of cervical cancer screening, knowledge on frequency of screening and cervical cancer screening causing harm. However, in multivariate analysis, participants who knew that cervical cancer screening prevented cervical cancer were 3.58 (95% CI [1.49, 8.64]) times more likely to have been screened than those who did not have the knowledge. Participants who knew that cervical cancer is curable were 2.76 (95% CI [1.92, 8.31]) times more likely to have been screened than those who did not have the knowledge. CONCLUSION AND GLOBAL HEALTH IMPLICATIONS: The uptake of screening was low. Interventions should be designed to increase uptake of screening for cervical cancer by considering factors that have been identified in the current study that are independently associated with cervical cancer screening among this population.

Cholera Epidemic - Lusaka, Zambia, October 2017-May 2018.

On October 6, 2017, an outbreak of cholera was declared in Zambia after laboratory confirmation of Vibrio cholerae O1, biotype El Tor, serotype Ogawa, from stool specimens from two patients with acute watery diarrhea. The two patients had gone to a clinic in Lusaka, the capital city, on October 4. Cholera cases increased rapidly, from several hundred cases in early December 2017 to approximately 2,000 by early January 2018 (Figure). In collaboration with partners, the Zambia Ministry of Health (MoH) launched a multifaceted public health response that included increased chlorination of the Lusaka municipal water supply, provision of emergency water supplies, water quality monitoring and testing, enhanced surveillance, epidemiologic investigations, a cholera vaccination campaign, aggressive case management and health care worker training, and laboratory testing of clinical samples. In late December 2017, a number of water-related preventive actions were initiated, including increasing chlorine levels throughout the city's water distribution system and placing emergency tanks of chlorinated water in the most affected neighborhoods; cholera cases declined sharply in January 2018. During January 10-February 14, 2018, approximately 2 million doses of oral cholera vaccine were administered to Lusaka residents aged ≥1 year. However, in mid-March, heavy flooding and widespread water shortages occurred, leading to a resurgence of cholera. As of May 12, 2018, the outbreak had affected seven of the 10 provinces in Zambia, with 5,905 suspected cases and a case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.9%. Among the suspected cases, 5,414 (91.7%), including 98 deaths (CFR = 1.8%), occurred in Lusaka residents.

Prevalence and Correlates for Psychosocial Distress Among In-School Adolescents in Zambia.

There is scanty information on correlates for psychosocial distress in Zambia. Secondary analysis was conducted using the data collected in 2004 in Zambia during the global school-based health survey to determine the prevalence and correlates for psychosocial distress. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate magnitudes of associations between exposure factors and the outcome, while the Yates' corrected Chi-squared test was used to compare proportions at the 5% significance level. A total of 2257 students participated in the survey of which 54.2% were males. Males were generally older than females (p < 0.001). Significantly, more females than males were bullied (p = 0.036), involved in a fight (p = 0.019), and consumed alcohol (p = 0.012). Psychosocial distress was detected in 15.7% of the participants (14.4% of males and 16.8% of females). Age <14 years, male gender, parental support for males, and having close friends were protective factors against psychosocial distress. Risk factors for psychosocial distress were being bullied, involvement in a fight, alcohol consumption, being physically active, and parental support. The prevalence of psychosocial distress among adolescents in Zambia appears to be common. There is a need to validate the psychosocial distress indicators that were used in the current study.

Characterization of rubella seronegative females in the zambian blood donor community.

Rubella is an acute, contagious viral infection caused by a teratogenic enveloped single-stranded RNA virus, rubella virus, a member of the togaviridae family. Though causing generally mild infections in children and adults, it is a disease of public health importance in pregnant women causing major problems including abortions, miscarriages, and congenital rubella syndrome in more than 20% of the susceptible population. This study was carried out to determine the characteristics associated with rubella seronegativity among female blood donors in Zambia. Rubella-specific IgG antibody levels were measured in the blood serum. Proportions were compared using the Chi-squared test at the 5% significance level, and magnitudes of associations were determined using the odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval. Of the 124 female blood donors tested for rubella IgG 46.0% were aged <20 years. Overall, 66.7% of the participants had never been married. More than half (62.1%) of the participants resided in rural areas of the country. Of the 114 participants with recorded level of education, 50.1% had at least completed secondary school. Out of 43 participants with recorded current employment status, 44.2% were not working for pay. A total of 10 (8.1%) participants were seronegative to rubella IgG antibodies. No factors were associated with seronegativity. Protection against rubella through natural infection appears inadequate to protect the population, increasing the risk of CRS.

Seroprevalence of West Nile Virus specific IgG and IgM antibodies in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia.

BACKGROUND: West Nile Virus (WNV) infection has been reported worldwide, including in Africa but its existence in Zambia is unknown. Symptoms for the virus include headache, myalgia, arthralgia and rash. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of WNV and its correlates. METHODS: A cross sectional study was conducted in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia. Samples were subjected to IgG and IgM antibodies testing against WNV. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine magnitudes of association. RESULTS: A total of 3,625 of persons participated in the survey out of which 10.3% had WNV infection. Farmers were 20% (AOR=0.80; 95% CI [0.64, 0.99]) less likely to have infection compared to students. Meanwhile participants who lived in grass roofed houses were 2.97 (AOR=2.97; 95% CI [1.81, 4.88]) times more likely to be infected than those who lived in asbestos roofed houses. IRS was associated with reduced risk of infection (AOR=0.81; 95% CI [0.69, 0.94]). Travelling to Angola was associated with the infection [AOR=1.40; 95% CI [1.09, 1.81]. CONCLUSION: Spraying houses with insecticide residual spray would minimize mosquito-man contact. Furthermore, surveillance at the border with Angola should be enhanced in order to reduce importation of the virus into the country.