Rural Sanitation Sustainability Dynamics: Gaining Insight through Participatory and Simulation Modeling.

Improved sanitation provides many benefits to human health and well-being and is integral to achieving Sustainable Development Goal Six. However, many nations, including most of sub-Saharan Africa, are not on track to meeting sanitation targets. Recognizing the inherent complexity of environmental health, we used systems thinking to study sanitation sustainability in Uganda. Our study participants, 37 sanitation actors in three rural districts, were engaged in interviews, group model building workshops, and a survey. The resulting model was parametrized and calibrated using publicly available data and data collected through the Uganda Sanitation for Health Activity. Our simulations revealed slippage from improved sanitation in all study districts, a behavior reflected in real interventions. This implies that systemic changes-changes to the rules and relationships in the system-may be required to improve sanitation outcomes in this context. Adding reinforcing feedback targeting households' perceived value of sanitation yielded promising simulation results. We conclude with the following general recommendations for those designing sanitation policies or interventions: (1) conceptualize sanitation systems in terms of reinforcing and balancing feedback, (2) consider using participatory and simulation modeling to build confidence in these conceptual models, and (3) design many experiments (e.g., simulation scenarios) to test and improve understanding.

Systems Thinking for Effective Interventions in Global Environmental Health.

Environmental health risks such as household air pollution due to burning solid fuels, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene, and chemical pollution disproportionately affect the poorest and most marginalized populations. While billions of dollars and countless hours of research have been applied toward addressing these issues in both development and humanitarian contexts, many interventions fail to achieve or sustain desired outcomes over time. This pattern points to the perpetuation of linear thinking, despite the complex nature of environmental health within these contexts. There is a need and an opportunity to engage in critical reflection of the dominant paradigms in the global environmental health community, including how they affect decision-making and collective learning. These paradigms should be adapted as needed toward the integration of diverse perspectives and the uptake of systems thinking. Participatory modeling, complexity-aware monitoring, and virtual simulation modeling can help achieve this. Additionally, virtual simulation modeling is relatively inexpensive and can provide a low-stakes environment for testing interventions before implementation.