Latent Trajectories of Cross-National Homicide Trends: Structural Characteristics of Underlying Groups.

Relative to studies of U.S. homicide trends, few have investigated cross-national trends. We explore hidden heterogeneity across a sample of 82 nations between 1980 and 2010, and examine (a) what distinct latent trajectories are represented among these nations? and (b) what structural factors characterize these latent trajectory groups? World Health Organization mortality data were used for the trajectory analyses wherein three distinct groups were identified. Structural characteristics of each group are compared to determine which factors account for their trajectories. Characteristics that predicted group placement include a development index, divorced males, female labor force participation, and Latin American region.

Social welfare support and homicide: longitudinal analyses of European countries from 1994 to 2010.

The purpose of this research is to explore the extent to which retrenchment in welfare support is related to homicide trends across European countries between 1994 and 2010. Using a longitudinal decomposition design that allows for stronger causal inferences compared to typical cross-sectional designs, we examine these potential linkages between social support spending and homicide with data collected from a heterogeneous sample of European nations, including twenty Western nations and nine less frequently analyzed East-Central nations, during recent years in which European nations generally witnessed substantial changes in homicide rates as well as both economic prosperity and fiscal crisis. Results suggest that even incremental, short-term changes in welfare support spending are associated with short-term reductions in homicide-specifically, impacting homicide rates within two to three years for this sample of European nations.

The dynamic relationship between homicide rates and social, economic, and political factors from 1970 to 2000*.

After reaching their highest levels of the 20th century, homicide rates in the United States declined precipitously in the early 1990s. This study examines a number of factors that might have contributed to both the sharp increase and decline in homicide rates. We use a pooled cross-sectional time series model to assess the relationship between changes in structural conditions and the change in homicide rates over four decennial time points (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). We assess the extent to which structural covariates associated with social, economic and political conditions commonly used in homicide research (e.g., urban decay, poverty, and the weakening of family and social bonds) are related to the change in homicide rates. Along with these classic covariates, we incorporate some contemporary explanations (e.g., imprisonment rates and drug trafficking) that have been proposed to address the recent decline in urban homicide rates. Our results indicate that both classic and contemporary explanations are related to homicide trends over the last three decades of the 20th century. Specifically, changes in resource deprivation and in the relative size of the youth population are associated with changes in the homicide rate across these time points. Increased imprisonment is also significantly related to homicide changes. These findings lead us to conclude that efforts to understand the changing nature of homicide will require serious consideration, if not integration, of classic and contemporary explanations.

Population size and suicide in U.S. cities: a static and dynamic exploration.

The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic association between suicide rates and city population size, we analyze data for four time points, 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990, using a random sample of U.S. cities with 10,000 or more population in 1960. In addition, we conduct a time series analysis of change in population size and change in suicide rates over a two decade period. Results indicate that an association between population and suicide is atypical, and even when observed is highly sensitive to methodological specifications. The results call into question the notion that larger city population size is conducive to suicide as well as the assumption that studies of suicide and urbanization can substitute for studies of suicide and city population size.

Trends in environmental lead exposure and troubled youth, 1960-1995: an age-period-cohort-characteristic analysis.

Beginning in the mid-1980s and extending into the early 1990s, the United States experienced a wave of increased youth violence and teenage pregnancy. Nevin (2000) proffers a cohort-based explanation that these trends can be attributed to corresponding trends in gasoline lead exposure during the youths' early years. He contends that the increased consumption of adversely impacted their intelligence levels (IQs). This decreased their intellectual ability, resulted in poor decisions made during their teen and young adult years, and in turn, led to disproportionally high level of criminal involvement and unwed pregnancies among this cohort. The present study evaluates Nevin's causal model by testing the connection between trends in lead exposure and youthful problem behavior with age-period-cohort-characteristic (APCC) models. Our research finds no support for this cohort explanation.