A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Methylome-wide studies of six metabolic traits.

Exploring the molecular correlates of metabolic health measures may identify the shared and unique biological processes and pathways that they track. Here, we performed epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) of six metabolic traits: body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist-hip ratio (WHR), and blood-based measures of glucose, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and total cholesterol. We considered blood-based DNA methylation (DNAm) from >750,000 CpG sites in over 17,000 volunteers from the Generation Scotland (GS) cohort. Linear regression analyses identified between 304 and 11,815 significant CpGs per trait at P<3.6×10-8, with 37 significant CpG sites across all six traits. Further, we performed a Bayesian EWAS that jointly models all CpGs simultaneously and conditionally on each other, as opposed to the marginal linear regression analyses. This identified between 3 and 27 CpGs with a posterior inclusion probability ≥ 0.95 across the six traits. Next, we used elastic net penalised regression to train epigenetic scores (EpiScores) of each trait in GS, which were then tested in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936; European ancestry) and Health for Life in Singapore (HELIOS; Indian-, Malay- and Chinese-ancestries). A maximum of 27.1% of the variance in BMI was explained by the BMI EpiScore in the subset of Malay-ancestry Singaporeans. Four metabolic EpiScores were associated with general cognitive function in LBC1936 in models adjusted for vascular risk factors (Standardised ßrange: 0.08 - 0.12, PFDR < 0.05). EpiScores of metabolic health are applicable across ancestries and can reflect differences in brain health.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of chronic low-grade inflammation across diverse population cohorts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

Epigenetic scores of blood-based proteins as biomarkers of general cognitive function and brain health.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic Scores (EpiScores) for blood protein levels have been associated with disease outcomes and measures of brain health, highlighting their potential usefulness as clinical biomarkers. They are typically derived via penalised regression, whereby a linear weighted sum of DNA methylation (DNAm) levels at CpG sites are predictive of protein levels. Here, we examine 84 previously published protein EpiScores as possible biomarkers of cross-sectional and longitudinal measures of general cognitive function and brain health, and incident dementia across three independent cohorts. RESULTS: Using 84 protein EpiScores as candidate biomarkers, associations with general cognitive function (both cross-sectionally and longitudinally) were tested in three independent cohorts: Generation Scotland (GS), and the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936 (LBC1921 and LBC1936, respectively). A meta-analysis of general cognitive functioning results in all three cohorts identified 18 EpiScore associations (absolute meta-analytic standardised estimates ranged from 0.03 to 0.14, median of 0.04, PFDR < 0.05). Several associations were also observed between EpiScores and global brain volumetric measures in the LBC1936. An EpiScore for the S100A9 protein (a known Alzheimer disease biomarker) was associated with general cognitive functioning (meta-analytic standardised beta: - 0.06, P = 1.3 × 10-9), and with time-to-dementia in GS (Hazard ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.44, P = 0.003), but not in LBC1936 (Hazard ratio 1.11, P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores might make a contribution to the risk profile of poor general cognitive function and global brain health, and risk of dementia, however these scores require replication in further studies.

Acceptability and Usability of Self-Sampling for the Detection of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Transgender Women: The TransOdara Multicentric Study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The effective testing of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires sampling from potential infection sites. This study aimed to assess the choice, satisfaction, and performance of self-collected samples (SCS) from potential infection sites for STI testing among transgender women in Brazil. METHODS: TransOdara was a multicentric, cross-sectional STI prevalence study conducted in 5 Brazilian cities. Using respondent-driven sampling, 1317 transgender women 18 years or older were recruited. Participants completed interviewer-led questionnaires and provided swab samples from multiple sites (anorectal, oropharyngeal, genital) for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. Participants were given a choice of SCS or provider-collected samples (PCS) at each site. RESULTS: Most participants selected SCS for anorectal (74.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 72.4-77.3) and genital (72.7%; 95% CI, 70.2-75.1) sites, whereas fewer chose for oropharyngeal samples (49.8%; 95% CI, 47.0-52.6). For future testing, most participants expressed a preference for SCS for genital (72.2%; 95% CI, 69.5-74.7) and anorectal (70.2%; 95% CI, 67.6-72.7) sites. There was no significant difference in the positive test results for CT and NG between SCS and PCS at anorectal and oropharyngeal sites, or for HPV at anorectal and genital (penile or neovaginal) sites. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a high level of acceptability and usability of self-sampling for STI testing among transgender women. A preference for SCS was evident at the anorectal and genital sites, and the results of SCS were comparable to those of PCS. The findings suggest that multisite STI testing utilizing self-collection methods as a provided option can be effectively integrated into sexual health services for transgender women.

Comprehensive evaluation of smoking exposures and their interactions on DNA methylation.

BACKGROUND: Smoking impacts DNA methylation, but data are lacking on smoking-related differential methylation by sex or dietary intake, recent smoking cessation (<1 year), persistence of differential methylation from in utero smoking exposure, and effects of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). METHODS: We meta-analysed data from up to 15,014 adults across 5 cohorts with DNA methylation measured in blood using Illumina's EPIC array for current smoking (2560 exposed), quit < 1 year (500 exposed), in utero (286 exposed), and ETS exposure (676 exposed). We also evaluated the interaction of current smoking with sex or diet (fibre, folate, and vitamin C). FINDINGS: Using false discovery rate (FDR < 0.05), 65,857 CpGs were differentially methylated in relation to current smoking, 4025 with recent quitting, 594 with in utero exposure, and 6 with ETS. Most current smoking CpGs attenuated within a year of quitting. CpGs related to in utero exposure in adults were enriched for those previously observed in newborns. Differential methylation by current smoking at 4-71 CpGs may be modified by sex or dietary intake. Nearly half (35-50%) of differentially methylated CpGs on the 450 K array were associated with blood gene expression. Current smoking and in utero smoking CpGs implicated 3049 and 1067 druggable targets, including chemotherapy drugs. INTERPRETATION: Many smoking-related methylation sites were identified with Illumina's EPIC array. Most signals revert to levels observed in never smokers within a year of cessation. Many in utero smoking CpGs persist into adulthood. Smoking-related druggable targets may provide insights into cancer treatment response and shared mechanisms across smoking-related diseases. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates and the Scottish Funding Council, Medical Research Council UK and the Wellcome Trust.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. METHODS: Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. RESULTS: Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Anorectal gonorrhoea and chlamydia among transgender women in Brazil: prevalence and assessment of performance and cost of anorectal infection detection and management approaches.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the prevalence of anorectal Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) among transgender women in Brazil, and to assess the performance and costs of various approaches for the diagnosis and management of anorectal NG/CT. METHODS: TransOdara was a multicentric, cross-sectional STI prevalence study among 1317 transgender women conducted in five capital cities representing all Brazilian regions. Participants aged >18 years were recruited using respondent-driven sampling (RDS), completed an interviewer-led questionnaire, offered an optional physical examination and given choice between self-collected or provider-collected samples for NG/CT testing. Performance and cost indicators of predetermined management algorithms based on the WHO recommendations for anorectal symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Screening uptake was high (94.3%) and the estimated prevalence of anorectal NG, CT and NG and/or CT was 9.1%, 8.9% and 15.2%, respectively. Most detected anorectal NG/CT infections were asymptomatic (NG: 87.6%, CT: 88.9%), with a limited number of participants reporting any anorectal symptoms (9.1%). Of those who permitted anal examination, few had clinical signs of infection (13.6%). Sensitivity of the tested algorithms ranged from 1.4% to 5.1% (highest for treatment based on the reported anorectal discharge or ulcer and receptive anal intercourse (RAI) in the past 6 months) and specificity from 98.0% to 99.3% (highest for treatment based on the reported anorectal discharge with clinical confirmation or report of RAI). The estimated cost-per-true case of anorectal NG/CT infection treated varied from lowest providing treatment for anorectal discharge syndrome based on the reported RAI ($2.70-4.28), with algorithms including clinical examinations decreasing cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: High prevalence of mostly asymptomatic anorectal NG and CT was observed among Brazilian transgender women. Multi-site NG/CT screening should be offered to transgender women. Where diagnostic testing capacity is limited, syndromic management for those presenting with anorectal symptoms is recommended.

Impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the vitamin D status of people in the West of Ireland.

OBJECTIVE: Identify the impact of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on the vitamin D status of individuals in the west of Ireland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Adults who had wintertime serum 25(OH)D analysis completed in Galway University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 16,725 participants (2015-2020 (n = 13,449) and 2020-2021 (n = 3276)). Baseline demographics; sex, age, origin of the sample and the date of sample collection. RESULTS: Median serum vitamin D and serum vitamin D3 concentrations were higher in the 5-month period from October-February 2020-2021 (61 nmol/L (± 36-85 nmol/L) and 60 nmol/L (± 34-85 nmol/L)) respectively, than for the corresponding 5-month period (October-February) in 2015-2020 (53 nmol/L (± 32-78 nmol/L) and 51 nmol/L (± 30-77 nmol/L)) respectively. These changes coincided with a decline in the prevalence of deficiency. In the 5-month period October-February 2020-2021, 19.2% of the population were vitamin D deficient (< 30 nmol/L) compared to 22.5% in the corresponding 5-month period in 2015-2020, and 38.1% were vitamin D deficient (< 50 nmol/L) in the 5-month period October-February 2020-2021 compared to 46.6% in the corresponding 5-month period in 2015-2020. Males were more likely to be deficient at both thresholds (p < 0.001). For the total cohort, at the < 30 nmol/L threshold, inpatients (25.5%) and nursing home residents (34.1%) had higher prevalence of deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D levels were higher in the 5-month period of October-February 2020-2021, and this precipitated a decline in deficiency at both thresholds, indicating that lockdown coincided with enhanced vitamin D status. We postulate that it may be attributable to changes in diet and/or supplementation, or increased sun exposure, but further confirmatory studies are required.

Integration of datasets for individual prediction of DNA methylation-based biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic scores (EpiScores) can provide biomarkers of lifestyle and disease risk. Projecting new datasets onto a reference panel is challenging due to separation of technical and biological variation with array data. Normalisation can standardise data distributions but may also remove population-level biological variation. RESULTS: We compare two birth cohorts (Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936 - nLBC1921 = 387 and nLBC1936 = 498) with blood-based DNA methylation assessed at the same chronological age (79 years) and processed in the same lab but in different years and experimental batches. We examine the effect of 16 normalisation methods on a novel BMI EpiScore (trained in an external cohort, n = 18,413), and Horvath's pan-tissue DNA methylation age, when the cohorts are normalised separately and together. The BMI EpiScore explains a maximum variance of R2=24.5% in BMI in LBC1936 (SWAN normalisation). Although there are cross-cohort R2 differences, the normalisation method makes a minimal difference to within-cohort estimates. Conversely, a range of absolute differences are seen for individual-level EpiScore estimates for BMI and age when cohorts are normalised separately versus together. While within-array methods result in identical EpiScores whether a cohort is normalised on its own or together with the second dataset, a range of differences is observed for between-array methods. CONCLUSIONS: Normalisation methods returning similar EpiScores, whether cohorts are analysed separately or together, will minimise technical variation when projecting new data onto a reference panel. These methods are important for cases where raw data is unavailable and joint normalisation of cohorts is computationally expensive.

Elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety among family members and friends of critically ill COVID-19 patients - an observational study of five cohorts across four countries.

Background: Little is known regarding the mental health impact of having a significant person (family member and/or close friend) with COVID-19 of different severity. Methods: The study included five prospective cohorts from four countries (Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK) with self-reported data on COVID-19 and symptoms of depression and anxiety during March 2020-March 2022. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR) of depression and anxiety in relation to having a significant person with COVID-19 and performed a longitudinal analysis in the Swedish cohort to describe temporal patterns. Findings: 162,237 and 168,783 individuals were included in the analysis of depression and anxiety, respectively, of whom 24,718 and 27,003 reported a significant person with COVID-19. Overall, the PR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for depression and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.13) for anxiety in relation to having a significant person with COVID-19. The respective PRs for depression and anxiety were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08-1.23) and 1.24 (95% CI: 1.14-1.34) if the patient was hospitalized, 1.42 (95% CI: 1.27-1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.31-1.60) if the patient was ICU-admitted, and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.22-1.46) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.22-1.51) if the patient died. Individuals with a significant person with hospitalized, ICU-admitted, or fatal COVID-19 showed elevated prevalence of depression and anxiety during the entire year after the COVID-19 diagnosis. Interpretation: Family members and close friends of critically ill COVID-19 patients show persistently elevated prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Funding: This study was primarily supported by NordForsk (COVIDMENT, 105668) and Horizon 2020 (CoMorMent, 847776).

Blood-based genome-wide DNA methylation correlations across body-fat- and adiposity-related biochemical traits.

The recent increase in obesity levels across many countries is likely to be driven by nongenetic factors. The epigenetic modification DNA methylation (DNAm) may help to explore this, as it is sensitive to both genetic and environmental exposures. While the relationship between DNAm and body-fat traits has been extensively studied, there is limited literature on the shared associations of DNAm variation across such traits. Akin to genetic correlation estimates, here, we introduce an approach to evaluate the similarities in DNAm associations between traits: DNAm correlations. As DNAm can be both a cause and consequence of complex traits, DNAm correlations have the potential to provide insights into trait relationships above that currently obtained from genetic and phenotypic correlations. Utilizing 7,519 unrelated individuals from Generation Scotland with DNAm from the EPIC array, we calculated DNAm correlations between body-fat- and adiposity-related traits by using the bivariate OREML framework in the OSCA software. For each trait, we also estimated the shared contribution of DNAm between sexes. We identified strong, positive DNAm correlations between each of the body-fat traits (BMI, body-fat percentage, and waist-to-hip ratio, ranging from 0.96 to 1.00), finding larger associations than those identified by genetic and phenotypic correlations. We identified a significant deviation from 1 in the DNAm correlations for BMI between males and females, with sex-specific DNAm changes associated with BMI identified at eight DNAm probes. Employing genome-wide DNAm correlations to evaluate the similarities in the associations of DNAm with complex traits has provided insight into obesity-related traits beyond that provided by genetic correlations.

Hospital Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 Pneumonia: The Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Vitamin D Status.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination promises to improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (most notably those with advanced age and at high risk for severe disease). Here, we examine serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status and outcomes in both old (>70 years) and young vaccinated (n = 80) and unvaccinated (n = 91) subjects, who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia in a single center (Connolly Hospital Dublin). Outcomes included ICU admission and mortality. Serum 25(OH)D levels were categorized as D30 (<30 nmol/L), D40 (30-49.99 nmol/L) and D50 (≥50 nmol/L). In multivariate analyses, D30 was independently associated with ICU admission (OR: 6.87 (95% CI: 1.13-41.85) (p = 0.036)) and mortality (OR: 24.81 (95% CI: 1.57-392.1) (p = 0.023)) in unvaccinated patients, even after adjustment for major confounders including age, sex, obesity and pre-existing diabetes mellitus. While mortality was consistently higher in all categories of patients over 70 years of age, the highest observed mortality rate of 50%, seen in patients over 70 years with a low vitamin D state (D30), appeared to be almost completely corrected by either vaccination, or having a higher vitamin D state, i.e., mortality was 14% for vaccinated patients over 70 years with D30 and 16% for unvaccinated patients over 70 years with a 25(OH)D level greater than 30 nmol/L. We observe that high mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia occurs in older patients, especially those who are unvaccinated or have a low vitamin D state. Recent vaccination or having a high vitamin D status are both associated with reduced mortality, although these effects do not fully mitigate the mortality risk associated with advanced age.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of 19 common disease states: A longitudinal, population-based linked cohort study of 18,413 Scottish individuals.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation is a dynamic epigenetic mechanism that occurs at cytosine-phosphate-guanine dinucleotide (CpG) sites. Epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) investigate the strength of association between methylation at individual CpG sites and health outcomes. Although blood methylation may act as a peripheral marker of common disease states, previous EWAS have typically focused only on individual conditions and have had limited power to discover disease-associated loci. This study examined the association of blood DNA methylation with the prevalence of 14 disease states and the incidence of 19 disease states in a single population of over 18,000 Scottish individuals. METHODS AND FINDINGS: DNA methylation was assayed at 752,722 CpG sites in whole-blood samples from 18,413 volunteers in the family-structured, population-based cohort study Generation Scotland (age range 18 to 99 years). EWAS tested for cross-sectional associations between baseline CpG methylation and 14 prevalent disease states, and for longitudinal associations between baseline CpG methylation and 19 incident disease states. Prevalent cases were self-reported on health questionnaires at the baseline. Incident cases were identified using linkage to Scottish primary (Read 2) and secondary (ICD-10) care records, and the censoring date was set to October 2020. The mean time-to-diagnosis ranged from 5.0 years (for chronic pain) to 11.7 years (for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalisation). The 19 disease states considered in this study were selected if they were present on the World Health Organisation's 10 leading causes of death and disease burden or included in baseline self-report questionnaires. EWAS models were adjusted for age at methylation typing, sex, estimated white blood cell composition, population structure, and 5 common lifestyle risk factors. A structured literature review was also conducted to identify existing EWAS for all 19 disease states tested. The MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and preprint servers were searched to retrieve relevant articles indexed as of March 27, 2023. Fifty-four of approximately 2,000 indexed articles met our inclusion criteria: assayed blood-based DNA methylation, had >20 individuals in each comparison group, and examined one of the 19 conditions considered. First, we assessed whether the associations identified in our study were reported in previous studies. We identified 69 associations between CpGs and the prevalence of 4 conditions, of which 58 were newly described. The conditions were breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We also uncovered 64 CpGs that associated with the incidence of 2 disease states (COPD and type 2 diabetes), of which 56 were not reported in the surveyed literature. Second, we assessed replication across existing studies, which was defined as the reporting of at least 1 common site in >2 studies that examined the same condition. Only 6/19 disease states had evidence of such replication. The limitations of this study include the nonconsideration of medication data and a potential lack of generalizability to individuals that are not of Scottish and European ancestry. CONCLUSIONS: We discovered over 100 associations between blood methylation sites and common disease states, independently of major confounding risk factors, and a need for greater standardisation among EWAS on human disease.

Development and validation of DNA methylation scores in two European cohorts augment 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) presents a major health and economic burden that could be alleviated with improved early prediction and intervention. While standard risk factors have shown good predictive performance, we show that the use of blood-based DNA methylation information leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of 10-year T2D incidence risk. Previous studies have been largely constrained by linear assumptions, the use of cytosine-guanine pairs one-at-a-time and binary outcomes. We present a flexible approach (via an R package, MethylPipeR) based on a range of linear and tree-ensemble models that incorporate time-to-event data for prediction. Using the Generation Scotland cohort (training set ncases = 374, ncontrols = 9,461; test set ncases = 252, ncontrols = 4,526) our best-performing model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.872, area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC) = 0.302) showed notable improvement in 10-year onset prediction beyond standard risk factors (AUC = 0.839, precision-recall AUC = 0.227). Replication was observed in the German-based KORA study (n = 1,451, ncases = 142, P = 1.6 × 10-5).

Refining epigenetic prediction of chronological and biological age.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks can track both chronological age (cAge) and biological age (bAge). The latter is typically defined by physiological biomarkers and risk of adverse health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. As cohort sample sizes increase, estimates of cAge and bAge become more precise. Here, we aim to develop accurate epigenetic predictors of cAge and bAge, whilst improving our understanding of their epigenomic architecture. METHODS: First, we perform large-scale (N = 18,413) epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of chronological age and all-cause mortality. Next, to create a cAge predictor, we use methylation data from 24,674 participants from the Generation Scotland study, the Lothian Birth Cohorts (LBC) of 1921 and 1936, and 8 other cohorts with publicly available data. In addition, we train a predictor of time to all-cause mortality as a proxy for bAge using the Generation Scotland cohort (1214 observed deaths). For this purpose, we use epigenetic surrogates (EpiScores) for 109 plasma proteins and the 8 component parts of GrimAge, one of the current best epigenetic predictors of survival. We test this bAge predictor in four external cohorts (LBC1921, LBC1936, the Framingham Heart Study and the Women's Health Initiative study). RESULTS: Through the inclusion of linear and non-linear age-CpG associations from the EWAS, feature pre-selection in advance of elastic net regression, and a leave-one-cohort-out (LOCO) cross-validation framework, we obtain cAge prediction with a median absolute error equal to 2.3 years. Our bAge predictor was found to slightly outperform GrimAge in terms of the strength of its association to survival (HRGrimAge = 1.47 [1.40, 1.54] with p = 1.08 × 10-52, and HRbAge = 1.52 [1.44, 1.59] with p = 2.20 × 10-60). Finally, we introduce MethylBrowsR, an online tool to visualise epigenome-wide CpG-age associations. CONCLUSIONS: The integration of multiple large datasets, EpiScores, non-linear DNAm effects, and new approaches to feature selection has facilitated improvements to the blood-based epigenetic prediction of biological and chronological age.

Metabolomic Investigation of Major Depressive Disorder Identifies a Potentially Causal Association With Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic differences have been reported between individuals with and without major depressive disorder (MDD), but their consistency and causal relevance have been unclear. METHODS: We conducted a metabolome-wide association study of MDD with 249 metabolomic measures available in the UK Biobank (n = 29,757). We then applied two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization and colocalization analysis to identify potentially causal relationships between each metabolite and MDD. RESULTS: A total of 191 metabolites tested were significantly associated with MDD (false discovery rate-corrected p < .05), which decreased to 129 after adjustment for likely confounders. Lower abundance of omega-3 fatty acid measures and a higher omega-6 to omega-3 ratio showed potentially causal effects on liability to MDD. There was no evidence of a causal effect of MDD on metabolite levels. Furthermore, genetic signals associated with docosahexaenoic acid colocalized with loci associated with MDD within the fatty acid desaturase gene cluster. Post hoc Mendelian randomization of gene-transcript abundance within the fatty acid desaturase cluster demonstrated a potentially causal association with MDD. In contrast, colocalization analysis did not suggest a single causal variant for both transcript abundance and MDD liability, but rather the likely existence of two variants in linkage disequilibrium with one another. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that decreased docosahexaenoic acid and increased omega-6 to omega-3 fatty acids ratio may be causally related to MDD. These findings provide further support for the causal involvement of fatty acids in MDD.

DNA methylation analysis is used to identify novel genetic loci associated with circulating fibrinogen levels in blood.

BACKGROUND: Fibrinogen plays an essential role in blood coagulation and inflammation. Circulating fibrinogen levels may be determined based on interindividual differences in DNA methylation at cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites and vice versa. OBJECTIVES: To perform an EWAS to examine an association between blood DNA methylation levels and circulating fibrinogen levels to better understand its biological and pathophysiological actions. METHODS: We performed an epigenome-wide association study of circulating fibrinogen levels in 18 037 White, Black, American Indian, and Hispanic participants, representing 14 studies from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium. Circulating leukocyte DNA methylation was measured using the Illumina 450K array in 12 904 participants and using the EPIC array in 5133 participants. In each study, an epigenome-wide association study of fibrinogen was performed using linear mixed models adjusted for potential confounders. Study-specific results were combined using array-specific meta-analysis, followed by cross-replication of epigenome-wide significant associations. We compared models with and without CRP adjustment to examine the role of inflammation. RESULTS: We identified 208 and 87 significant CpG sites associated with fibrinogen levels from the 450K (p < 1.03 × 10-7) and EPIC arrays (p < 5.78 × 10-8), respectively. There were 78 associations from the 450K array that replicated in the EPIC array and 26 vice versa. After accounting for overlapping sites, there were 83 replicated CpG sites located in 61 loci, of which only 4 have been previously reported for fibrinogen. The examples of genes located near these CpG sites were SOCS3 and AIM2, which are involved in inflammatory pathways. The associations of all 83 replicated CpG sites were attenuated after CRP adjustment, although many remained significant. CONCLUSION: We identified 83 CpG sites associated with circulating fibrinogen levels. These associations are partially driven by inflammatory pathways shared by both fibrinogen and CRP.

Epigenome-Wide Association Study Reveals CpG Sites Associated with Thyroid Function and Regulatory Effects on KLF9.

Background: Thyroid hormones play a key role in differentiation and metabolism and are known regulators of gene expression through both genomic and epigenetic processes including DNA methylation. The aim of this study was to examine associations between thyroid hormones and DNA methylation. Methods: We carried out a fixed-effect meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of blood DNA methylation sites from 8 cohorts from the ThyroidOmics Consortium, incorporating up to 7073 participants of both European and African ancestry, implementing a discovery and replication stage. Statistical analyses were conducted using normalized beta CpG values as dependent and log-transformed thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine, and free triiodothyronine levels, respectively, as independent variable in a linear model. The replicated findings were correlated with gene expression levels in whole blood and tested for causal influence of TSH and free thyroxine by two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR). Results: Epigenome-wide significant associations (p-value <1.1E-7) of three CpGs for free thyroxine, five for free triiodothyronine, and two for TSH concentrations were discovered and replicated (combined p-values = 1.5E-9 to 4.3E-28). The associations included CpG sites annotated to KLF9 (cg00049440) and DOT1L (cg04173586) that overlap with all three traits, consistent with hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis physiology. Significant associations were also found for CpGs in FKBP5 for free thyroxine, and at CSNK1D/LINCO1970 and LRRC8D for free triiodothyronine. MR analyses supported a causal effect of thyroid status on DNA methylation of KLF9. DNA methylation of cg00049440 in KLF9 was inversely correlated with KLF9 gene expression in blood. The CpG at CSNK1D/LINC01970 overlapped with thyroid hormone receptor alpha binding peaks in liver cells. The total additive heritability of the methylation levels of the six significant CpG sites was between 25% and 57%. Significant methylation QTLs were identified for CpGs at KLF9, FKBP5, LRRC8D, and CSNK1D/LINC01970. Conclusions: We report novel associations between TSH, thyroid hormones, and blood-based DNA methylation. This study advances our understanding of thyroid hormone action particularly related to KLF9 and serves as a proof-of-concept that integrations of EWAS with other -omics data can provide a valuable tool for unraveling thyroid hormone signaling in humans by complementing and feeding classical in vitro and animal studies.