Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data.

The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations. When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents. Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics.

Recruitment and survival of immature seabirds in relation to oil spills and climate variability.

1. In long-lived animals with delayed maturity, the non-breeding component of the population may play an important role in buffering the effects of stochastic mortality. Populations of colonial seabirds often consist of more than 50% non-breeders, yet because they spend much of their early life at sea, we understand little about their impact on the demographic process. 2. Using multistate capture-mark-recapture techniques, we analyse a long-term data set of individually identifiable common guillemots, Uria aalge Pont., to assess factors influencing their immature survival and two-stage recruitment process. 3. Analysis of the distribution of ringed common guillemots during the non-breeding season, separated by age classes, revealed that all age classes were potentially at risk from four major oil spills. However, the youngest age class (0-3 years) were far more widely spread than birds 4-6 years old, which were more widely spread than birds aged 6 and over. Therefore the chance of encountering an oil spill was age-dependent. 4. A 2-year compound survival estimate for juvenile guillemots was weakly negatively correlated with winter sea-surface temperature, but was not influenced by oil spills. Non-breeder survival did not vary significantly over time. 5. In years following four oil spills, juvenile recruitment was almost double the value in non-oil-spill years. Recent work from Skomer Island showed a doubling of adult mortality associated with major oil spills, which probably reduced competition at the breeding colony, allowing increased immature recruitment to compensate for these losses. We discuss the implications of compensatory recruitment for assessing the impact of oil pollution incidents.

Age-specific reproduction in a long-lived species: the combined effects of senescence and individual quality.

Apparent changes in breeding performance with age measured at the population level can be due to changes in individual capacity at different ages, or to the differential survival of individuals with different capabilities. Estimating the relative importance of the two is important for understanding ageing patterns in natural populations, but there are few studies of such populations in which these effects have been disentangled. We analysed laying date and clutch size as measures of individual performance in a population of mute swans (Cygnus olor) studied over 25 years at Abbotsbury, UK. On both measures of breeding performance, individuals tended to improve up to the age of 6 or 7, and to decline after about the age of 12. Individuals with longer lifespans performed better at all ages (earlier laying, larger clutches) than animals that ceased breeding earlier. We conclude that the apparent mean increase in performance with age in mute swans is due to both individual improvement and differential survival of individuals who perform well, while the decline in older age groups is due to individual loss of function. Our results underline the need to take individual differences into account when testing hypotheses about life histories in wild populations.

Inbreeding depression along a life-history continuum in the great tit.

Inbreeding resulting from the mating of two related individuals can reduce the fitness of their progeny. However, quantifying inbreeding depression in wild populations is challenging, requiring large sample sizes, detailed knowledge of life histories and study over many generations. Here we report analyses of the effects of close inbreeding, based on observations of mating between relatives, in a large, free-living noninsular great tit (Parus major) population monitored over 41 years. Although mating between close relatives (f > or = 0.125) was rare (1.0-2.6% of matings, depending on data set restrictiveness), we found pronounced inbreeding depression, which translated into reduced hatching success, fledging success, recruitment to the breeding population and production of grand offspring. An inbred mating at f = 0.25 had a 39% reduction in fitness relative to that of an outbred nest, when calculated in terms of recruitment success, and a 55% reduction in the number of fledged grand offspring. Our data show that inbreeding depression acts independently at each life-history stage in this population, and hence suggest that estimates of the fitness costs of inbreeding must focus on the entire life cycle.

Components of variance underlying fitness in a natural population of the great tit Parus major.

Traits that are closely associated with fitness tend to have lower heritabilities (h2) than those that are not. This has been interpreted as evidence that natural selection tends to deplete genetic variation more rapidly for traits more closely associated with fitness (a corollary of Fisher's fundamental theorem), but Price and Schluter (1991) suggested the pattern might be due to higher residual variance in traits more closely related to fitness. The relationship between 10 different traits for females, seven traits for males, and overall fitness (lifetime recruitment) was quantified for great tits (Parus major) studied in their natural environment of Wytham Wood, England, using data collected over 39 years. Heritabilities and the coefficients of additive genetic and residual variance (CVA and CVR, respectively) were estimated using an "animal model." For both males and females, a trait's correlation (r) with fitness was negatively related to its h2 but positively related to its CVR. The CVA was not related to the trait's correlation with fitness in either sex. This is the third study using directly measured fitness in a wild population to show the important role of residual variation in determining the pattern of lower heritabilities for traits more closely related to fitness.

Bacillus anthracis contamination and inhalational anthrax in a mail processing and distribution center.

AIMS: Four inhalational anthrax cases occurred in a large mail processing and distribution center in Washington, DC, after envelopes containing Bacillus anthracis spores were processed. This report describes the results of sampling for B. anthracis spores during investigations conducted in October and December 2001. METHODS AND RESULTS: Wet swabs, wet wipes, vacuum sock, and air-filter samples were collected throughout the facility to characterize the extent of building contamination. The results showed widespread contamination of B. anthracis spores, particularly associated with one delivery bar code sorter (DBCS) machine that had sorted the spore-containing envelopes and an area where the envelopes were handled by postal workers. Spore concentrations decreased as distance from the DBCS machine increased, but spores were widely dispersed into surrounding areas. CONCLUSION: The spatial distribution of culture positive samples was closely related to the work areas of the inhalational anthrax cases and supported epidemiological evidence that the workers became ill from exposure to B. anthracis spores in areas where the contaminated envelopes had travelled. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The results of this investigation were used to guide decontamination efforts and provided baseline spore concentrations for follow-up measurements after the building had been cleaned. Implementing methods to reduce aerosolization and dispersion of dust within the facility would reduce postal workers' potential exposures to bioterrorism agents.

Environmental stochasticity and extinction risk in a population of a small songbird, the great tit.

Using a long-term demographic data set, we estimated the separate effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity in the growth rate of the great tit population in Wytham Wood, United Kingdom. Assuming logistic density regulation, both the demographic (sigma2d = 0.569) and environmental (sigma2e = 0.0793) variance, with interactions included, were significantly greater than zero. The estimates of the demographic variance seemed to be relatively insensitive to the length of the study period, whereas reliable estimates of the environmental variance required long time series (at least 15 yr of data). The demographic variance decreased significantly with increasing population density. These estimates are used in a quantitative analysis of the demographic factors affecting the risk of extinction of this population. The very long expected time to extinction of this population (approximately 10(19) yr) was related to a relatively large population size (>/=120 pairs during the study period). However, for a given population size, the expected time to extinction was sensitive to both variation in population growth rate and environmental stochasticity. Furthermore, the form of the density regulation strongly affected the expected time to extinction. Time to extinction decreased when the maximum density regulation approached K. This suggests that estimates of viability of small populations should be given both with and without inclusion of density dependence.

Total parenteral nutrition-associated alterations in hepatobiliary function and histology in rats: is light exposure a clue?

Light exposure of amino acids, especially in the presence of photosensitizers such as riboflavin, has been shown to result in photoproducts that are toxic both in vivo and in vitro. Provision of photooxidized single amino acids has been shown to result in hepatic dysfunction in both gerbils and rats. However, studies of the effects of light exposure of complete nutrient mixtures (glucose-amino acid-vitamins) on hepatobiliary responses are limited. These are important because, in clinical practice, total parenteral nutrition (TPN) solutions are continually exposed to light and because hepatic dysfunction is the most common metabolic aberration associated with TPN. Studies were conducted to compare the effects of TPN that had been exposed to light (+L) or protected from light (-L) on hepatobiliary function of rats. TPN solutions were either exposed to light or protected from light for 24 h and then infused into rats for 10 d. Data for enterally fed rats are also shown for comparison with parenterally fed animals. +L animals lost more weight and had lower bile flow, higher taurocholate output in bile, higher biliary osmolarity, and higher inorganic phosphate in bile. Hepatic histology demonstrated scattered foci of necrosis in eight of the eight +L animals and in only one of eight -L animals. These data demonstrate that protection of TPN solutions from light minimizes TPN-associated alterations in hepatobiliary function and histology. These histologic changes observed in the +L animals are in contrast to previous reports of TPN-induced histologic changes, suggesting a different mechanism. Our observations suggest that consideration be given to the implications of exposing TPN solutions to light.

Gentamicin population pharmacokinetic models for low birth weight infants using a new nonparametric method.

Availability of personal computer programs for control of drug regimens has stimulated interest in modeling population pharmacokinetics. In this study, we found parameter values for gentamicin in two infant populations with low birth weights. The models were developed by use of a parametric (i.e., standard two-stage algorithm) and with a new nonparametric expected maximum algorithm. Data for the two populations (i.e., infants less than or equal to 31 weeks' and greater than 31 but less than or equal to 34 weeks' gestational age) were obtained from infants admitted to the University of Texas Medical Branch intensive care nursery between August 1, 1988, and July 31, 1989. The new nonparametric method was demonstrated to be not only the equal of the standard two-stage method for population modeling but better, especially in use of sparse data sets (e.g., single serum levels). It also obviates the need for selecting proper starting conditions for the least-squares fitting procedure used in the standard two-stage method.

Diet and cimetidine induce comparable changes in theophylline metabolism in normal subjects.

This study compared the effects of diet and cimetidine on theophylline metabolism and examined interactions between these effects. Twelve men received a high-protein diet for 15 days and at another time a high-carbohydrate diet also for 15 days. Cimetidine, 800 mg daily at bedtime, was administered on days 10 through 15 of each dietary period. Theophylline metabolism was studied after the administration of a single intravenous 3 mg/kg dose on days 8 and 15 of each dietary period. Changing from a high-protein to a high-carbohydrate diet decreased theophylline clearance by about the same extent (30% +/- 10%) as treatment with cimetidine (37% +/- 5% during a high-protein diet and 30% +/- 5% during a high-carbohydrate diet). Cimetidine did not significantly influence the effects of diet on theophylline clearance. Conversely, dietary composition did not influence the degree of inhibition of theophylline metabolism induced by cimetidine. Depending on the direction of the change in protein/carbohydrate ratio, the effects of diet and cimetidine treatment were either additive (theophylline clearance was most prolonged during the high-carbohydrate regimen with concurrent cimetidine administration) or counteractive (increasing the dietary protein/carbohydrate ratio at least partially counteracted the inhibitory effect of cimetidine). In individual subjects, effects of cimetidine on theophylline metabolism were somewhat more consistent than diet-induced changes. The results are further evidence that diet and drugs can have similar effects on hepatic drug metabolism rates in humans. Variations in diet over time and individual differences in responses to diet may provide the potential for considerable instability of drug metabolism rates in free-living subjects.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Multidisciplinary program for detecting and evaluating adverse drug reactions.

An adverse drug reaction (ADR)-reporting program involving detection of charted ADRs by quality assurance nurses and data collection and causality assessment by staff pharmacists is described. The voluntary ADR-reporting mechanism used in a 900-bed, university-based hospital complex produced less than one ADR report per month. The newly implemented system depends on nurses to detect and report documented ADRs through concurrent chart review. Staff pharmacists are then responsible for follow-up chart review, data collection, and causality assignment based on two published algorithms. An inservice education program designed to increase the awareness and understanding of ADRs was provided to the department of pharmacy and the quality assurance nurses. The clinical staff provides quality assurance through weekly ADR committee meetings. Drug information center personnel complete the causality algorithms by using the data collected by the staff pharmacists. The ADR committee then compares the algorithm results of the two assessors. Discrepancies in scoring are evaluated to determine whether a change in the system is necessary. An FDA report is generated if the staff pharmacist assessor and the drug information center assessor obtain results of "probable" for both algorithms. An ADR-reporting program that relies on quality assurance nurses to detect charted ADRs and on staff pharmacists to evaluate reported ADRs increased the average number of ADRs reported from 0.4 to 20 per month.

Intravenous erythromycin lactobionate-induced severe nausea and vomiting.

Intravenous erythromycin lactobionate has been used for several years to treat various infectious diseases. Several cases of severe nausea and vomiting associated with its use have been reported in Europe but only a few cases have been reported in the U.S. The official product information does not refer to severe nausea and vomiting associated with its intravenous use; however, we report six additional cases of severe nausea and vomiting associated with rapid administration of erythromycin lactobionate, and review the current literature on the characteristics of this adverse effect.

Effects of telemetry transmitter weight on breeding success in herring gulls.

Dummy ratio-tracking transmitters weighing 10, 30 and 50 g were attached to randomly chosen pairs of breeding herring gulls (Larus argentatus). Breeding success was measured as a function of eggs hatched and chicks fledged. Fewer clutches survived if patients were subjected to more severe treatments (p less than 0.02). Component effects (catching pairs of gulls or increased transmitter weight) were not singularly significant in decreasing clutch success.