Effects of pelvic floor muscle training on strength and predictors of response in the treatment of urinary incontinence.

AIMS: The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the effect of training on pelvic floor muscle strength; (2) to determine whether changes in pelvic floor muscle strength correlate with changes in continence; and (3) to determine whether demographic characteristics, clinical incontinence severity indices, or urodynamic measures predict response to pelvic floor muscle training. METHODS: One hundred thirty-four women with urinary incontinence (95=genuine stress incontinence [GSI]; 19=detrusor instability [DI]; 20=mixed incontinence [GSI+DI]) were randomized to pelvic floor muscle training (n=67) or bladder training (n=67). Urinary diaries, urodynamic evaluation, and vaginal pressure measurements by using balloon manometry were performed at baseline and after 12 weeks of therapy. Primary outcome measures consisted of incontinent episodes per week and vaginal pressure measurements. RESULTS: Both treatment groups had a reduction in incontinent episodes (P

A systematic review of estrogens for recurrent urinary tract infections: third report of the hormones and urogenital therapy (HUT) committee.

Our objective was to apply a meta-analysis to the available data to evaluate the effect of estrogen supplementation in the prevention of recurrent urinary tract infections in postmenopausal women. The literature review incorporated articles based on a search of Excerpta Medica, Medline, Science Citation Index and a manual search of commonly read journals in the fields of urology, gynecology, gerontology and primary healthcare, from January 1969 to December 1998. The search was not limited to English-language publications. Inclusion criteria were peer-reviewed articles containing original data with a primary outcome of symptomatic urinary tract infections and an estrogen-treated group. Articles were categorized into randomized controlled trials, case-control studies and self-controlled series. Of the articles reviewed, five were randomized controlled trials, two were case-control studies and three were self-control series. Meta-analysis of data from 334 subjects revealed a significant benefit from estrogen over placebo (odds ratio = 2.51, 95% confidence interval = 1.48 4.25). The most convincing results were obtained using the vaginal route of administration. A variety of different estrogen preparations have been employed in the few published reports, making comparison of the data difficult. However, vaginal administration seems to be effective in the prevention of recurrent urinary tract infections in postmenopausal women.

Results of report cards for patients with congestive heart failure depend on the method used to adjust for severity.

BACKGROUND: The validity of outcome report cards may depend on the ways in which they are adjusted for risk. OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive ability of generic and disease-specific survival prediction models appropriate for use in patients with heart failure, to simulate outcome report cards by comparing survival across hospitals and adjusting for severity of illness using these models, and to assess the ways in which the results of these comparisons depend on the adjustment method. DESIGN: Analysis of data from a prospective cohort study. SETTING: A university hospital, a Veterans Affairs (VA) medical center, and a community hospital. PATIENTS: Sequential patients presenting in the emergency department with acute congestive heart failure. MEASUREMENTS: Unadjusted 30-day and 1-year mortality across hospitals and 30-day and 1-year mortality adjusted by using disease-specific survival prediction models (two sickness-at-admission models, the Cleveland Health Quality Choice model, the Congestive Heart Failure Mortality Time-Independent Predictive Instrument) and generic models (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II, APACHE III, the mortality prediction model, and the Chadson comorbidity index). RESULTS: The community hospital's unadjusted 30-day survival rate (85.0%) and the VA medical center's unadjusted 1-year survival rate (60.9%) were significantly lower than corresponding rates at the university hospital (92.7% and 67.5%, respectively). No severity model had excellent ability to discriminate patients by survival rates (all areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve < 0.73). Whether the VA medical center, the community hospital, both, or neither had worse survival rates on simulated report cards than the university hospital depended on the prediction model used for adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Results of simulated outcome report cards for survival in patients with congestive heart failure depend on the method used to adjust for severity.

Effect of different types of Medicaid managed care on childhood immunization rates.

Medicaid managed care can improve access to prevention services, such as immunization, for low-income children. The authors studied immunization rates for 7,356 children on Medicaid in three managed care programs: primary care case management (PCCM; n = 4,605), a voluntary HMO program (n = 851), and a mandatory HMO program (n = 1,900). Immunization rates (3:3:1 series) in PCCM (78%) exceeded rates in the voluntary HMO program (71%), which in turn exceeded those in the mandatory HMO program (67%). Adjusting for race, urban residence, and gender, compared to children in PCCM, children in the voluntary HMO program were less likely to complete the 3:3:1 series (OR = 0.75, CI = 0.63, 0.90), and children in the mandatory HMO program were even less likely to complete the series (OR = 0.59, CI = 0.51, 0.68). Results differed by individual HMOs. Monitoring of outcomes for all types of managed care by Medicaid agencies is imperative to assure better disease prevention for low-income children.

Assessing Medicaid recipient access and satisfaction. Fee-for-service, case management, and capitation.

Medicaid increasingly requires enrollment in managed care programs. This study assessed access to care, satisfaction with care, and appointment wait times during the transition from fee for service to managed care using three annual Medicaid recipient surveys. There was little evidence of dissatisfaction or poorer access among managed care recipients. Fee-for-service recipients, compared to primary care case management, reported greater general (91 vs. 78%, p < .01) and specialty care access (92 vs. 80%, p < .01). When appointments were required, adult HMO enrollees, compared to case management, had longer waits for routine care in the second (5.8 +/- 8.2 days vs. 4.0 +/- 6.6) and third surveys (5.5 +/- 6.9 days vs. 3.8 +/- 7.3); waits for other appointments did not consistently differ by program. There were no significant program differences in overall satisfaction. Findings are tempered by the potential for response bias and geographic confounding. Continued monitoring is crucial to assure that access and satisfaction remain high in Medicaid managed care.

Access, satisfaction, and utilization in two forms of Medicaid managed care.

We determined access and satisfaction of 2,598 recipients of Virginia's Medicaid program, comparing its health maintenance organizations (HMOs) to its primary care case management (PCCM) program. Positive responses were summed as sub-domains either of access, satisfaction, or of utilization, and adjusted odds ratios were calculated for HMO (vs. PCCM) sub-domain scores. The response rate was 47 per cent. We found few significant differences in perceived access, satisfaction, and utilization. Both HMO adults and children more often perceived good geographic access (adults, OR, [CI] = 1.50, [1.04-2.16]; children, OR, [CI] = 1.773 [1.158, 2.716]). But HMO patients less often reported good after-hours access (adults, OR, [CI] = 0.527 [0.335, 0.830]; children, OR, [CI] = 0.583 [0.380, 0.894]). Among all patients reporting poorer function, HMO patients more often reported good general and preventive care (OR, [CI] = 2.735 [1.138, 6.575]). We found some differences between Medicaid HMO versus PCCM recipients' reported access, satisfaction, and utilization, but were unable to validate concerns about access and quality under more restrictive forms of Medicaid managed care.

Understanding lower urinary tract function in women soon after bladder neck surgery. Continence Program for Women Research Group.

The aim of this work was to correlate anatomic and urodynamic measures with function following bladder neck surgery. Eighty-seven women who underwent bladder neck surgery at two tertiary academic medical centers in the southeastern U.S. were studied in this prospective outcomes analysis. Preoperative and 6-week and 6-month postoperative status was assessed with urodynamic testing, physical examination, and condition-specific quality of life instruments. Correlations of dynamic urethral obstruction (quantified by pressure transmission ratio, PTR, determinations) and urethral support (quantified by urethral axis measurements) with functional status were determined. At 6 weeks, 50% of the subjects with inadequate dynamic obstruction (PTR < 90%) had genuine stress incontinence (GSI) compared to 5% of those with PTR >/= 90% (P = .00002). Of those with excessive obstruction (PTR > 110%), 32% had detrusor instability (DI) and 47% had emptying phase dysfunction (EPD) compared to 6% and 24%, respectively, of those with PTR /= 90% but

Use and costs of incontinence pads in female study volunteers. Continence Program for Women Research Group.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the use and cost of incontinence pads and the relationship to factors such as age, duration of incontinence, diurnal frequency, incontinence severity indices, urodynamic diagnosis, and quality of life. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: Three hundred fifteen women with urinary incontinence who volunteered to participate in 1 of 3 incontinence studies (behavioral intervention, estrogen supplementation, or surgery) were analyzed. Subjects were community-dwelling women aged 45 years and older living in 3 cities in the southeastern United States. METHODS: Pad use was recorded on a daily diary. The type of pads used was reported on the history. Average price of pad types was assessed at local stores and reported in 1995 dollars. Statistical comparisons used nonparametric methods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of pads used per week and annual cost of pads in 1995 dollars. RESULTS: Seventy-seven percent of subjects used pads at baseline. Median cost per year for the entire cohort was $46 (interquartile range $3-$138). For pad users, median annual cost was $76 (interquartile range $36-$177), with costs being greater for women with detrusor instability than those with pure genuine stress incontinence (median $135-$138 versus $63). This increased cost was likely associated with the greater use of special incontinence products among women with detrusor instability. For the entire cohort, cost and usage did not differ by urodynamic diagnosis. Cost and pad usage were significantly associated with number of incontinent episodes and quality of life, but not with age, pad weight, or duration of incontinence. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of incontinent women who sought treatment used absorbent pads at least once per week, with menstrual pads being the most common type of pad. The annual cost of pad usage was not as high as in previous estimates.

Nosocomial bloodstream infections in United States hospitals: a three-year analysis.

Nosocomial bloodstream infections are important causes of morbidity and mortality. In this study, concurrent surveillance for nosocomial bloodstream infections at 49 hospitals over a 3-year period detected >10,000 infections. Gram-positive organisms accounted for 64% of cases, gram-negative organisms accounted for 27%, and 8% were caused by fungi. The most common organisms were coagulase-negative staphylococci (32%), Staphylococcus aureus (16%), and enterococci (11%). Enterobacter, Serratia, coagulase-negative staphylococci, and Candida were more likely to cause infections in patients in critical care units. In patients with neutropenia, viridans streptococci were significantly more common. Coagulase-negative staphylococci were the most common pathogens on all clinical services except obstetrics, where Escherichia coli was most common. Methicillin resistance was detected in 29% of S. aureus isolates and 80% of coagulase-negative staphylococci. Vancomycin resistance in enterococci was species-dependent--3% of Enterococcus faecalis strains and 50% of Enterococcus faecium isolates displayed resistance. These data may allow clinicians to better target empirical therapy for hospital-acquired cases of bacteremia.

The effect of bladder training, pelvic floor muscle training, or combination training on urodynamic parameters in women with urinary incontinence. Continence Program for Women Research Group.

The purpose of this study was to compare the effect of three conservative interventions: pelvic floor muscle training, bladder training, or both, on urodynamic parameters in women with urinary incontinence. Two hundred four women with genuine stress incontinence (GSI) or detrusor instability with or without GSI (DI +/- GSI) participated in a two-site trial comparing pelvic floor muscle training, bladder training, or both. Patients were stratified based on severity of urinary incontinence, urodynamic diagnosis, and treatment site, then randomized to a treatment group. All women underwent a comprehensive standardized evaluation including multi-channel urodynamics at the initial assessment and at the end of 12 weeks of therapy. Analysis of covariance was used to detect differences among treatment groups on urodynamic parameters. Post-treatment evaluations were available for 181 women. No differences were found among treatments on the following measurements: maximum urethral closure pressure, mean urethral closure pressure, maximum Kegel urethral closure pressure, mean Kegel urethral closure pressure, functional urethral length, pressure transmission ratios, straining urethral axis, first sensation to void, maximum cystometric capacity, and the MCC minus FSV. The effect of treatment did not differ by urodynamic diagnosis. Behavioral therapy had no effect on commonly measured urodynamic parameters. The mechanism by which clinical improvement occurs remains unknown. Neurourol. Urodynam. 18:427-436, 1999.

Predictors of Medicare costs in elderly beneficiaries with breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Determining the apportionment of costs of cancer care and identifying factors that predict costs are important for planning ethical resource allocation for cancer care, especially in markets where managed care has grown. DESIGN: This study linked tumor registry data with Medicare administrative claims to determine the costs of care for breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancers during the initial year subsequent to diagnosis, and to develop models to identify factors predicting costs. SUBJECTS: Patients with a diagnosis of breast (n = 1,952), colorectal (n = 2,563), lung (n = 3,331) or prostate cancer (n = 3,179) diagnosed from 1985 through 1988. RESULTS: The average costs during the initial treatment period were $12,141 (s.d. = $10,434) for breast cancer, $24,910 (s.d. = $14,870) for colorectal cancer, $21,351 (s.d. = $14,813) for lung cancer, and $14,361 (s.d. = $11,216) for prostate cancer. Using least squares regression analysis, factors significantly associated with cost included comorbidity, hospital length of stay, type of therapy, and ZIP level income for all four cancer sites. Access to health care resources was variably associated with costs of care. Total R2 ranged from 38% (prostate) to 49% (breast). The prediction error for the regression models ranged from < 1% to 4%, by cancer site. CONCLUSIONS: Linking administrative claims with state tumor registry data can accurately predict costs of cancer care during the first year subsequent to diagnosis for cancer patients. Regression models using both data sources may be useful to health plans and providers and in determining appropriate prospective reimbursement for cancer, particularly with increasing HMO penetration and decreased ability to capture complete and accurate utilization and cost data on this population.

Reliability and correlation of measurements during and after bladder neck surgery. The Continence Program for Women Research Group.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the reliability of seven intraoperative measurements of the effects of bladder neck suspension and correlate these measurements with postoperative dynamic urethral obstruction, quantified as the cough-pressure transmission ratio. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty women undergoing surgery for bladder neck hypermobility had seven measurements performed in duplicate: (i) the endoscopic appearance of the bladder neck: (ii) the bladder neck-retropubic surface distance (BN-RP distance); (iii) urethral axis; (iv) slow urethral pressure profilometry (UPP); (v) fast UPP; (vi) straining UPP; and (vii) dynamic UPP. Reliabilities were assessed by computing the intraclass correlation coefficient (R) for continuous data or Kappa statistic (K) for ordinal data. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to assess the relationships between the intra-operative measures and postoperative pressure transmission. RESULTS: The intra-operative reliabilities for maximum pressure, length and area from the three UPP techniques were high (R=0.88-0.98) as were those for urethral axis measurements (R=0.98). In contrast, reliabilities were poor for pressure transmission ratios (R=0.15-0.33), BN-RP distance (R=0.55), and endoscopic appearance (K=0.10). There were significant correlations of the pressures from the UPPs and intra-operative pressure transmission ratios with postoperative pressure transmission ratios; however, the poor intra-operative reliability of intra-operative pressure transmission limits their usefulness. None of the other measures correlated significantly with postoperative pressure transmission ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Of the measures studied, only intra-operative UPPs had both high reliability and good postoperative correlations.

Comparative efficacy of behavioral interventions in the management of female urinary incontinence. Continence Program for Women Research Group.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the efficacy of bladder training, pelvic muscle exercise with biofeedback-assisted instruction, and combination therapy, on urinary incontinence in women. The primary hypothesis was that combination therapy would be the most effective in reducing incontinent episodes. STUDY DESIGN: A randomized clinical trial with three treatment groups was conducted in gynecologic practices at two university medical centers. Two hundred and four women diagnosed with genuine stress incontinence (n = 145) and/or detrusor instability (n = 59) received a 12-week intervention program (6 weekly office visits and 6 weeks of mail/telephone contact) with immediate and 3-month follow-up. Outcome variables included number of incontinent episodes, quality of life, perceived improvement, and satisfaction. Data analyses consisted of analysis of covariance using baseline values as covariates and chi2 tests. RESULTS: The combination therapy group had significantly fewer incontinent episodes, better quality of life, and greater treatment satisfaction immediately after treatment. No differences among groups were observed 3 months later. Women with genuine stress incontinence had greater improvement in life impact, and those with detrusor instability had less symptom distress at the immediate follow-up; otherwise, no differences were noted by diagnosis, incontinence severity, or treatment site. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy had the greatest immediate efficacy in the management of female urinary incontinence regardless of urodynamic diagnosis. However, each of the 3 interventions had similar effects 3 months after treatment. Results suggest that the specific treatment may not be as important as having a structured intervention program with education, counseling, and frequent patient contact.

Meta-analysis of estrogen therapy in the management of urogenital atrophy in postmenopausal women: second report of the Hormones and Urogenital Therapy Committee.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of estrogen therapy in the treatment of postmenopausal women with symptoms and signs associated with urogenital atrophy, by meta-analysis of available data. METHODS: We searched the literature (Excerpta Medica, Biosis, MEDLINE, and hand search) for studies published between January 1969 and April 1995. Criteria for inclusion were English-language articles, peer-reviewed original publications, and urogenital atrophy assessed by at least one of the following outcomes: patient symptoms, physician report, pH, or cytologic change. Data had to allow comparison between treated and control groups in controlled trials or an estimated change from baseline in uncontrolled series. Meta-analytic methods were applied separately to controlled clinical trials and uncontrolled studies. RESULTS: Of the 77 relevant articles reviewed, nine contained ten randomized controlled trials. Meta-analysis of these using the Stouffer method revealed a statistically significant benefit of estrogen therapy for all outcomes studied. In 54 uncontrolled case series, the patient symptoms were treated by 24 different treatment modalities. All routes of administration appeared to be effective and maximum benefit was obtained between 1 and 3 months after the start of treatment. As expected, the least systemic absorption of estrogen was seen with estriol (administered orally or vaginally), then vaginal estradiol as measured by pretherapy and posttherapy serum estradiol and estrone. CONCLUSION: Estrogen is efficacious in the treatment of urogenital atrophy and low-dose vaginal estradiol preparations are as effective as systemic estrogen therapy in the treatment of urogenital atrophy in postmenopausal women.

Immediate reproducibility of upper limit of vulnerability measurements in patients undergoing transvenous implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation.

INTRODUCTION: Measurement of the upper limit of vulnerability (ULV) with monophasic T wave shocks has been proposed as a patient-specific measurement of defibrillation efficacy that results in fewer episodes of ventricular fibrillation (VF) than measurement of a defibrillation efficacy curve. METHODS AND RESULTS: We sought to determine the magnitude of variance in ULV in 63 consecutive patients undergoing implantation of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). We measured ULV as the strength at or above which VF is not induced when a stimulus is delivered at 310 msec after an 8-beat ventricular pacing drive at 400 msec. Defibrillation threshold (DFT) was measured in patients with an active can device using a biphasic waveform and the binary search method beginning at 12 J. Sixty-three patients were studied; they had a mean age of 62 +/- 12 years and a mean ejection fraction of 35% +/- 15%. Three quarters of patients had an ischemic cardiomyopathy. Each patient underwent 4.5 +/- 0.8 measurements of ULV. Monophasic ULV correlated poorly with biphasic DFT (R between 0.19 and 0.28, P = 0.04 to 0.17). There was no change in ULV between second to third, third to fourth, and first to last measurement in 22% to 41% of patients. The reliability coefficient was 0.87. A ULV > or = 20 J was found in eight patients. The only predictor of high ULV was a high DFT. CONCLUSION: Monophasic ULVs do not closely predict biphasic active can DFTs using a standard protocol. High DFTs were predicted by high ULVs. There was little variation in the acute measurement of ULV between trials. These findings have important implications for using ULV measurements to determine changes in DFTs after interventions. The methodology of determining ULV is critical to its use for predicting DFTs and programming ICDs.

An international comparison of physicians' judgments of outcome rates of cardiac procedures and attitudes toward risk, uncertainty, justifiability, and regret.

OBJECTIVE: Compare U.K. and U.S. physicians' judgments of population probabilities of important outcomes of invasive cardiac procedures; and values held by them about risk, uncertainty, regret, and justifiability relevant to utilization of cardiac treatments. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: University hospital and VA medical center in the United States; two teaching hospitals in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 171 housestaff and attendings at U.S. teaching hospitals; 51 physician trainees and consultants at U.K. hospitals. MEASURES: Judgments of probabilities of severe complications and deaths due to Swan-Ganz catheterization, cardiac catheterization, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); judgments of malpractice risks for case vignettes; Nightingale's risk-aversion instrument; Gerrity's reaction-to-uncertainty instrument; questions about need to justify decisions; responses to case vignettes regarding regret. RESULTS: The U.S. physicians judged rates of two bad outcomes of cardiac procedures (complications due to cardiac catheterization; death due to CABG) to be significantly higher (p < or = 0.01) than did the U.K. physicians (U.S. medians, 5 and 3.5, respectively; U.K. medians 3 and 2). The median ratio of (risk of malpractice suit I error of omission)/(risk of suit I error of commission) judged by U.K. physicians, 3, was significantly (p=0.0006) higher than that judged by U.S. physicians, 1.5. The U.K. physicians were less often risk-seeking in the context of possible losses than the U.S. physicians (odds ratio for practicing in the U.K. as a predictor of risk seeking 0.3, p=0.003). The U.K. physicians had significantly more discomfort with uncertainty than did the U.S. physicians, as reflected by higher scores on the stress scale (U.K. median 48, U.S. 42, p=0.0001) and the reluctance-to-disclose-uncertainty scale (U.K. 40, U.S. 37, p < 0.0001) of the Gerrity instrument. There was no clear international difference in perceived need to justify decisions, or in regret. CONCLUSIONS: The results were not clearly consistent with the uncertainty hypothesis that international practice variation is due to differences in judged rates of outcomes of therapy or with the imperfect-agency hypothesis that practice variation is due to differences in physicians' personal values. The causes and implications of practice variations remain unclear.

Behavior of infants with iron-deficiency anemia.

This study tested the hypothesis that infants with iron-deficiency anemia show behaviors, such as increased proximity to caregivers, increased wariness or hesitance, and decreased activity, that could contribute to "functional isolation." The behavior of 52 Costa Rican 12- to 23-month-old infants with iron-deficiency anemia was contrasted with that of 139 comparison group infants with better iron status during free play and mental and motor testing and in the home. Infants with iron-deficiency anemia maintained closer contact with caregivers; showed less pleasure and delight; were more wary, hesitant, and easily tired; made fewer attempts at test items; were less attentive to instructions and demonstrations; and were less playful. Adult behavior also differed. The results indicate that iron-deficiency anemia in infancy is associated with alterations in affect and activity, suggesting that functional isolation is a useful framework for understanding poorer developmental outcome in iron-deficiency anemia, the world's most common single nutrient deficiency.

Sample size determination for diagnostic accuracy studies involving binormal ROC curve indices.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their associated indices are valuable tools for the assessment of the accuracy of diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve is a popular summary measure of the accuracy of a test. The full area under the ROC curve, however, has been criticized because it gives equal weight to all false positive error rates. Alternative indices include the area under the ROC curve in a particular range of false positive rates ('partial' area) and the sensitivity of the test for a single fixed false positive rate (FPR). We present a unified approach for computing sample size for binormal ROC curves and their indices. Our method uses Taylor series expansions to derive approximate large-sample estimates of the variance and covariance of binormal ROC curve parameters. Several examples from diagnostic radiology illustrate the proposed method.

Physicians' judgments of the risks of cardiac procedures. Differences between cardiologists and other internists.

OBJECTIVES: The authors compared judgments of the population risks of invasive cardiac procedures made by cardiologists and other internal medicine physicians. Our main hypotheses were that cardiologists' judgments would differ from those made by the other physicians and that cardiologists' judgments would be more accurate than those of other physicians. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey of senior staff and physician-trainees at two teaching hospitals affiliated with a US medical school, Emergency Department physicians at a community hospital in the same metropolitan area, and senior staff and trainees at two teaching hospitals affiliated with a UK school. Judgments of the risks of severe morbidity and death due to Swan-Ganz catheterization, cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary angioplasty, and coronary artery bypass grafting were assessed. RESULTS: Nineteen cardiologists judged the risks of severe morbidity due to all procedures and the risks of death due to all procedures except coronary artery bypass grafting to be significantly lower than did the 78 other internists. Cardiologists more frequently made accurate judgments of the rates of morbidity and death due to cardiac catheterization than did the other internists; other internists more frequently made accurate judgments for the rates of morbidity due to Swan-Ganz catheterization. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements about the risks of procedures may arise from a paucity of published data, or from an over-supply of confusing data.

Physicians' survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines suggest that patients with low likelihoods of survival may be excluded from intensive care. Patients with new or exacerbated congestive heart failure are frequently but not inevitably admitted to critical care units. OBJECTIVE: To assess how well physicians could predict the probability of survival for acutely ill patients with congestive heart failure, and in particular how well they could identify patients with small chances of survival. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study done in the emergency departments of a university hospital, a Veterans Affairs medical center, and a community hospital. The study population was consecutive adults for whom new or exacerbated congestive heart failure, diagnosed clinically, was a major reason for the emergency department visit. Physicians caring for the study patients in the emergency departments recorded their judgments of the numeric probability that each patient would survive for 90 days and for 1 year. The patients vital status at 90 days and 1 year was ascertained by multiple means, including interview, chart review, and review of hospital and state databases. RESULTS: By calibration curve analysis, the physicians underestimated survival probability at both 90 days and 1 year, particularly for patients they judged to have the lowest probabilities of survival. Their predictions had modest discriminating ability (receiver operating characteristic curve areas, 0.66 [SE = 0.020] for 90 days; 0.63 [SE = 0.017] for 1 year). The physicians identified only 15 patients they judged to have a 90-day survival probability of 10% or less, whose survival rate was actually 33.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians have great difficulty predicting survival for patients with acute congestive heart failure and cannot identify patients with poor chances of survival. Current triage guidelines that suggest patients with poor chances of survival may be excluded from critical care may be impractical or harmful.