Passive acoustics and sound recognition provide new insights on status and resilience of an iconic endangered marsupial (koala Phascolarctos cinereus) to timber harvesting.

Retention forestry aims to mitigate impacts of native forestry on biodiversity, but data are limited on its effectiveness for threatened species. We used acoustics to investigate the resilience of a folivorous marsupial, the koala Phascolarctos cinereus, to timber harvesting where a key mitigation practice is landscape exclusion of harvesting. We deployed acoustic recorders at 171 sites to record male bellows (~14,640 hours) for use in occupancy modelling and for comparisons of bellow rate (bellows night-1). Surveys targeted modelled medium-high quality habitat, with sites stratified by time since logging and logging intensity, including old growth as a reference. After scanning recordings with software to identify koala bellows, we found a high probability of detection (~0.45 per night), but this varied with minimum temperature and recorder type. Naïve occupancy was ~ 64% across a broad range of forests, which was at least five times more than expected based on previous surveys using alternative methods. After accounting for imperfect detection, probability of occupancy was influenced by elevation (-ve), cover of important browse trees (+ve), landscape NDVI (+ve) and extent of recent wildfire (-ve, but minor effect). Elevation was the most influential variable, though the relationship was non-linear and low occupancy was most common at tableland elevations (> 1000 m). Neither occupancy nor bellow rate were influenced by timber harvesting intensity, time since harvesting or local landscape extent of harvesting or old growth. Extrapolation of occupancy across modelled habitat indicates that the hinterland forests of north-east NSW support a widespread, though likely low density koala population that is considerably larger than previously estimated. Retention forestry has a significant role to play in mitigating harvesting impacts on biodiversity, including for forest specialists, but localised studies are needed to optimise prescriptions for koalas.

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study.

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional-scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently-collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2-km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500-m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground-truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows (n = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground-truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground-truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site-based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field-validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation-dependent species.

Are regional habitat models useful at a local-scale? A case study of threatened and common insectivorous bats in South-Eastern Australia.

Habitat modelling and predictive mapping are important tools for conservation planning, particularly for lesser known species such as many insectivorous bats. However, the scale at which modelling is undertaken can affect the predictive accuracy and restrict the use of the model at different scales. We assessed the validity of existing regional-scale habitat models at a local-scale and contrasted the habitat use of two morphologically similar species with differing conservation status (Mormopterus norfolkensis and Mormopterus species 2). We used negative binomial generalised linear models created from indices of activity and environmental variables collected from systematic acoustic surveys. We found that habitat type (based on vegetation community) best explained activity of both species, which were more active in floodplain areas, with most foraging activity recorded in the freshwater wetland habitat type. The threatened M. norfolkensis avoided urban areas, which contrasts with M. species 2 which occurred frequently in urban bushland. We found that the broad habitat types predicted from local-scale models were generally consistent with those from regional-scale models. However, threshold-dependent accuracy measures indicated a poor fit and we advise caution be applied when using the regional models at a fine scale, particularly when the consequences of false negatives or positives are severe. Additionally, our study illustrates that habitat type classifications can be important predictors and we suggest they are more practical for conservation than complex combinations of raw variables, as they are easily communicated to land managers.