The ripple effect of animal disease outbreaks on food systems: The case of African Swine Fever on the Chinese pork market.

Research on animal health economics has emphasised the importance of accounting for the indirect economic effects of animal disease outbreaks. Although recent studies have advanced in this direction by assessing consumer and producer welfare losses due to asymmetric price adjustments, potential over-shifting effects along the supply chain and spill-overs to substitute markets have been under-examined. This study contributes to this field of research by assessing the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak on the pork market in China. We employ impulse response functions estimated by local projection to calculate the price adjustments for consumers and producers, as well as the cross-effect in other meat markets. The results show that the ASF outbreak led to increases in both farmgate and retail prices but the rise in retail prices exceeded the corresponding change in farmgate prices. Furthermore, beef and chicken prices also rose, demonstrating the spill-over impacts of the outbreak to other markets. Overall, the evidence illustrates that a disruption in one part of a food system can have significant ripple effects across other parts of the system.

Immediate effects of COVID-19 on the global dairy sector.

CONTEXT: The emergence and rapid spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed an unprecedented threat to both societies and economies. The dairy sector is an example of the challenges that food supply chains have faced due to the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide primary evidence of the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the global dairy sector, particularly focusing on the outcome of the implemented response mechanisms, and the potential medium and long-term implications of the pandemic on the sector. METHODS: We employed a longitudinal qualitative analysis framework that combines the use of questionnaires, media-search, focus-group discussions, semi-structured interviews, and secondary evidence reviews. Information was gathered at two points in time: three months after the beginning of the outbreak and one year later. We applied this framework in five different geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and North America. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the pandemic has been perceived as a series of episodes affecting the sector from both demand and supply sides. These waves have impacted the sector differently depending on regions and countries' trade profiles, relative resource scarcity, per capita income, and market structure. Although in one year the sector has mostly recovered from the shock, the analysis concludes that the pandemic has accelerated on-going structural changes taking place in the dairy sector. SIGNIFICANCE: The study expands existing knowledge about the effects of the pandemic on the dairy sector and adds to the newly evolving literature about the medium and long-term effects of the COVID-19 on food systems across the globe. Despite the preliminary nature of the results, they provide important insights to inform sectorial policy discussions.