Invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) predation in a Washington State estuary revealed with DNA metabarcoding.

Predation by invasive species can threaten local ecosystems and economies. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas), one of the most widespread marine invasive species, is an effective predator associated with clam and crab population declines outside of its native range. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, green crab has recently increased in abundance and expanded its distribution, generating concern for estuarine ecosystems and associated aquaculture production. However, regionally-specific information on the trophic impacts of invasive green crab is very limited. We compared the stomach contents of green crabs collected on clam aquaculture beds versus intertidal sloughs in Willapa Bay, Washington, to provide the first in-depth description of European green crab diet at a particularly crucial time for regional management. We first identified putative prey items using DNA metabarcoding of stomach content samples. We compared diet composition across sites using prey presence/absence and an index of species-specific relative abundance. For eight prey species, we also calibrated metabarcoding data to quantitatively compare DNA abundance between prey taxa, and to describe an 'average' green crab diet at an intertidal slough versus a clam aquaculture bed. From the stomach contents of 61 green crabs, we identified 54 unique taxa belonging to nine phyla. The stomach contents of crabs collected from clam aquaculture beds were significantly different from the stomach contents of crabs collected at intertidal sloughs. Across all sites, arthropods were the most frequently detected prey, with the native hairy shore crab (Hemigrapsus oregonensis) the single most common prey item. Of the eight species calibrated with a quantitative model, two ecologically-important native species-the sand shrimp (Crangon franciscorum) and the Pacific staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus)-had the highest average DNA abundance when detected in a stomach content sample. In addition to providing timely information on green crab diet, our research demonstrates the novel application of a recently developed model for more quantitative DNA metabarcoding. This represents another step in the ongoing evolution of DNA-based diet analysis towards producing the quantitative data necessary for modeling invasive species impacts.

Tracking an invasion front with environmental DNA.

Data from environmental DNA (eDNA) may revolutionize environmental monitoring and management, providing increased detection sensitivity at reduced cost and survey effort. However, eDNA data are rarely used in decision-making contexts, mainly due to uncertainty around (1) data interpretation and (2) whether and how molecular tools dovetail with existing management efforts. We address these challenges by jointly modeling eDNA detection via qPCR and traditional trap data to estimate the density of invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas), a species for which, historically, baited traps have been used for both detection and control. Our analytical framework simultaneously quantifies uncertainty in both detection methods and provides a robust way of integrating different data streams into management processes. Moreover, the joint model makes clear the marginal information benefit of adding eDNA (or any other) additional data type to an existing monitoring program, offering a path to optimizing sampling efforts for species of management interest. Here, we document green crab eDNA beyond the previously known invasion front and find that the value of eDNA data dramatically increases with low population densities and low traditional sampling effort, as is often the case at leading-edge locations. We also highlight the detection limits of the molecular assay used in this study, as well as scenarios under which eDNA sampling is unlikely to improve existing management efforts.

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change.

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5-50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.

Evaluación Rápida de las Opciones de Manejo para la Promoción de la Recuperación de Especies con Deficiencia de Datos bajo el Cambio Climático Resumen El desarrollo de los planes de recuperación de especies requiere de la consideración de los resultados probables de las diferentes intervenciones de manejo, pero los efectos agravantes del cambio climático rara vez están incluidos en esta evaluación. Examinamos cómo los modelos cualitativos de redes (QNMs) pueden implementarse para apoyar la toma de decisiones cuando los datos, el tiempo y el financiamiento sufren limitaciones que restringen el uso de métodos cuantitativos más demandantes. Usamos los QNMs para evaluar las intervenciones de manejo con la intención de promover el repoblamiento del colapsado cangrejo rey azul (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) alrededor de las islas Pribilof (oriente del Mar de Bering) y así determinar cómo su eficiencia potencial puede modificarse bajo el cambio climático. Con base en aportaciones de los grupos de interés y una revisión bibliográfica construimos una QNM que describía el ciclo de vida del BKC, sus interacciones ecológicas importantes, impactos potenciales del cambio climático, fortalezas relativas de interacción, y la incertidumbre en relación con las fortalezas de interacción y la presencia de vínculos. Realizamos análisis de sensibilidad para identificar las fuentes clave de incertidumbre en la predicción. Bajo un escenario de ausencia de cambio climático, los incrementos pronosticados en la población de BKC fueron confiables solamente cuando el reforzamiento de la población se realizó en un escenario de programa de cultivo de BKC. Sin embargo, cuando se incluyó el cambio climático, la intervención de conservación no pudo contrarrestar los impactos adversos del cambio climático, lo cual tuvo un efecto negativo generalizado sobre los BKC. Los escenarios de manejo restantes estuvieron relacionados con los cambios en los esfuerzos de pesca sobre los depredadores del BKC. Para los estos últimos escenarios, los resultados de la población de BKC no fueron confiables, pero el cambio climático disminuyó todavía más la probabilidad de observar una recuperación. La inclusión de información sobre las fortalezas relativas de interacción incrementó la posibilidad de predecir los resultados de la población de BKC en ∼ 5 - 50% bajo los escenarios de manejo. Las mayores ganancias en la precisión de la predicción se lograrán reduciendo la incertidumbre asociada con las interacciones ecológicas entre los BKC adultos y el cangrejo rey rojo (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Los modelos cualitativos de redes son opciones útiles cuando los datos son limitados, pero permanecen subutilizados en la conservación.

Restoration through eradication? Removal of an invasive bioengineer restores some habitat function for a native predator.

Invasive aquatic macrophytes increase structural complexity in recipient systems and alter trophic and physical resources; thus, eradication programs that remove plant structure have potential to restore some impaired ecological functions. In this study we evaluate how an invasive ecosystem engineer, Atlantic smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), interferes with the movement and foraging activity of a mobile predator, Dungeness crab (Cancer magister), and whether removal of aboveground cordgrass structure rapidly reestablishes access to foraging habitats. By 2004, smooth cordgrass had invaded >25% of crab foraging habitat in Willapa Bay, Washington (USA), and transformed it into a highly structured landscape. However, by 2007 successful eradication efforts had eliminated most meadows of the cordgrass. In order to investigate the effect of smooth cordgrass on the habitat function of littoral areas for foraging crabs, we integrated field, laboratory, and statistical modeling approaches. We conducted trapping surveys at multiple sites and used a hierarchical model framework to examine patterns in catches prior to and following cordgrass removal (i.e., before-after control-impact design, BACI). Prior to eradication, catches of Dungeness crabs in unstructured habitats were 4-19 times higher than catches in adjacent patches of live cordgrass. In contrast, the results of post-eradication trapping in 2007 indicated similar catch rates of crabs in unstructured habitats and areas formerly invaded by the cordgrass. Subsequent laboratory experiments and video observations demonstrated that the rigid physical structure of smooth cordgrass shoots reduces the ability of Dungeness crabs to access prey resources and increases the risk of stranding. Taken together, these findings suggest that eliminating the structural complexity of invasive macrophytes may rapidly restore some ecological function (i.e., foraging area) for migratory predators like Dungeness crab. However, restoration of affected areas to a preinvasion state will also depend on long-term patterns of succession in invaded areas and the degree of persistence of physical changes that continue to alter biotic characteristics of the habitat. Our work highlights: (1) the efficacy of employing multiple methods of inquiry to evaluate causal relationships through mechanisms of interaction, and (2) the importance of targeting particular ecological functions when identifying both short- and long-term goals of restoration efforts.