Incidence of Invasive and Noninvasive Pneumococcal Pneumonia Hospitalizations in People Aged ≥50 Years: Assessing Variability Across Denmark and Spain.

Determining pneumococcal pneumonia (PP) burden in the elderly population is challenging due to limited data on invasive PP (IPP) and, in particular, noninvasive PP (NIPP) incidence. Using retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥50 years in Denmark (2 782 303) and the Valencia region, Spain (2 283 344), we found higher IPP hospitalization rates in Denmark than Valencia (18.3 vs 9/100 000 person-years [PY], respectively). Conversely, NIPP hospitalization rates were higher in Valencia (48.2 vs 7.2/100 000 PY). IPP and NIPP rates increased with age and comorbidities in both regions, with variations by sex and case characteristics (eg, complications, mortality). The burden of PP in adults is substantial, yet its true magnitude remains elusive. Discrepancies in clinical practices impede international comparisons; for instance, Valencia employed a higher frequency of urinary antigen tests compared to Denmark. Additionally, coding practices and prehospital antibiotic utilization may further influence these variations. These findings could guide policymakers and enhance the understanding of international disparities in disease burden assessments.

Neurodevelopmental Outcomes of Extremely Preterm Infants Fed Donor Milk or Preterm Infant Formula: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Maternal milk feeding of extremely preterm infants during the birth hospitalization has been associated with better neurodevelopmental outcomes compared with preterm formula. For infants receiving no or minimal maternal milk, it is unknown whether donor human milk conveys similar neurodevelopmental advantages vs preterm formula. Objective: To determine if nutrient-fortified, pasteurized donor human milk improves neurodevelopmental outcomes at 22 to 26 months' corrected age compared with preterm infant formula among extremely preterm infants who received minimal maternal milk. Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted at 15 US academic medical centers within the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Infants younger than 29 weeks 0 days' gestation or with a birth weight of less than 1000 g were enrolled between September 2012 and March 2019. Intervention: Preterm formula or donor human milk feeding from randomization to 120 days of age, death, or hospital discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BSID) cognitive score measured at 22 to 26 months' corrected age; a score of 54 (score range, 54-155; a score of ≥85 indicates no neurodevelopmental delay) was assigned to infants who died between randomization and 22 to 26 months' corrected age. The 24 secondary outcomes included BSID language and motor scores, in-hospital growth, necrotizing enterocolitis, and death. Results: Of 1965 eligible infants, 483 were randomized (239 in the donor milk group and 244 in the preterm formula group); the median gestational age was 26 weeks (IQR, 25-27 weeks), the median birth weight was 840 g (IQR, 676-986 g), and 52% were female. The birthing parent's race was self-reported as Black for 52% (247/478), White for 43% (206/478), and other for 5% (25/478). There were 54 infants who died prior to follow-up; 88% (376/429) of survivors were assessed at 22 to 26 months' corrected age. The adjusted mean BSID cognitive score was 80.7 (SD, 17.4) for the donor milk group vs 81.1 (SD, 16.7) for the preterm formula group (adjusted mean difference, -0.77 [95% CI, -3.93 to 2.39], which was not significant); the adjusted mean BSID language and motor scores also did not differ. Mortality (death prior to follow-up) was 13% (29/231) in the donor milk group vs 11% (25/233) in the preterm formula group (adjusted risk difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]). Necrotizing enterocolitis occurred in 4.2% of infants (10/239) in the donor milk group vs 9.0% of infants (22/244) in the preterm formula group (adjusted risk difference, -5% [95% CI, -9% to -2%]). Weight gain was slower in the donor milk group (22.3 g/kg/d [95% CI, 21.3 to 23.3 g/kg/d]) compared with the preterm formula group (24.6 g/kg/d [95% CI, 23.6 to 25.6 g/kg/d]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among extremely preterm neonates fed minimal maternal milk, neurodevelopmental outcomes at 22 to 26 months' corrected age did not differ between infants fed donor milk or preterm formula. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01534481.

Increasing Prevalence of Cerebral Palsy Among Two-Year-Old Children Born at <27 Weeks of Gestation: A Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in prevalence and severity of cerebral palsy (CP) among surviving children born at <27 weeks of gestation over time and to determine associations between CP and other developmental domains, functional impairment, medical morbidities, and resource use among 2-year-old children who were born extremely preterm. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using prospective registry data, conducted at 25 centers of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Participants were children born at <27 weeks of gestation and followed at 18 through 26 months of corrected age from 2008 through 2019. Outcomes of interest were changes in prevalence of any CP and severity of CP over time and associations between CP and other neurodevelopmental outcomes, functional impairment, and medical comorbidities. Adjusted logistic, linear, multinomial logistic, and robust Poisson regression evaluated the relationships between child characteristics, CP severity, and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 6927 surviving children with complete follow-up data, 3717 (53.7%) had normal neurologic examinations, 1303 (18.8%) had CP, and the remainder had abnormal neurologic examinations not classified as CP. Adjusted rates of any CP increased each year of the study period (aOR 1.11 per year, 95% CI 1.08-1.14). Cognitive development was significantly associated with severity of CP. Children with CP were more likely to have multiple medical comorbidities, neurosensory problems, and poor growth at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of CP among surviving children who were born extremely preterm increased from 2008 through 2019. At 18 to 26 months of corrected age, neurodevelopmental and medical comorbidities are strongly associated with all severity levels of CP.

A transient positive association between direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C infection and drug-related hospitalization among people who inject drugs: Self-controlled case-series analysis of national data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment has an established positive effect on liver outcomes in people with hepatitis C infection; however, there is insufficient evidence regarding its effects on the 'extra-hepatic' outcomes of drug-related hospitalization and mortality (DRM) among people who inject drugs (PWID). We investigated associations between these outcomes and DAA treatment by comparing post-treatment to baseline periods using a within-subjects design to minimize selection bias concerns with cohort or case-control designs. DESIGN: This was a self-controlled case-series study. SETTING: Scotland, 1 January 2015-30 November 2020. PARTICIPANTS: The study population of non-cirrhotic, DAA-treated PWID was identified using a data set linking Scotland's hepatitis C diagnosis, HCV clinical databases, national inpatient/day-case hospital records and the national deaths register. Three principal outcomes (drug overdose admission, non-viral injecting related admission and drug-related mortality) were defined using ICD codes. MEASUREMENTS: Self-controlled case-series methodology was used to estimate the relative incidence (RI) of each outcome associated with time on treatment and up to six 90-day exposure risk periods thereafter. FINDINGS: A total of 6050 PWID were treated with DAAs in the sampling time-frame. Compared with the baseline period, there was a significantly lowered risk of a drug overdose hospital admission in the second to fifth exposure risk periods only [relative incidence (RI) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80-0.99; 0.89, 95% CI = 0.80-0.99; 0.86, 95% CI = 0.77-0.96; 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, respectively]. For non-viral injecting-related admission, there was a reduced risk in the first, third and fourth exposure risk periods (RI = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.64-0.90; 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62-0.90; 0.79, 95% CI = 0.66-0.96, respectively). There was no evidence for reduced DRM risk in any period following treatment end. CONCLUSIONS: Among people who inject drugs in Scotland, direct-acting antiviral treatment appears to be associated with a small, non-durable reduction in the risk of drug-related hospital admission, but not drug-related mortality. Direct-acting antiviral therapy, despite high effectiveness against liver disease, does not appear to offer a panacea for reducing other drug-related health harms.

New methodology to assess the excess burden of antibiotic resistance using country-specific parameters: a case study regarding E. coli urinary tract infections.

OBJECTIVES: Antimicrobial resistant (AMR) infections are a major public health problem and the burden on population level is not yet clear. We developed a method to calculate the excess burden of resistance which uses country-specific parameter estimates and surveillance data to compare the mortality and morbidity due to resistant infection against a counterfactual (the expected burden if infection was antimicrobial susceptible). We illustrate this approach by estimating the excess burden for AMR (defined as having tested positive for extended-spectrum beta-lactamases) urinary tract infections (UTIs) caused by E. coli in the Netherlands in 2018, which has a relatively low prevalence of AMR E. coli, and in Italy in 2016, which has a relatively high prevalence. DESIGN: Excess burden was estimated using the incidence-based disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) measure. Incidence of AMR E. coli UTI in the Netherlands was derived from ISIS-AR, a national surveillance system that includes tested healthcare and community isolates, and the incidence in Italy was estimated using data reported in the literature. A systematic literature review was conducted to find country-specific parameter estimates for disability duration, risks of progression to bacteraemia and mortality. RESULTS: The annual excess burden of AMR E. coli UTI was estimated at 3.89 and 99.27 DALY/100 0000 population and 39 and 2786 excess deaths for the Netherlands and Italy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we use country-specific and pathogen-specific parameters to estimate the excess burden of resistant infections. Given the large difference in excess burden due to resistance estimated for Italy and for the Netherlands, we emphasise the importance of using country-specific parameters describing the incidence and disease progression following AMR and susceptible infections that are pathogen specific, and unfortunately currently difficult to locate.

Regional differences in historical diphtheria and scarlet fever notification rates in The Netherlands, 1905-1925: a spatial-temporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: We describe how rates of two frequently occurring notifiable diseases-diphtheria and scarlet fever-varied between regions of The Netherlands in the early twentieth century, and identify potential factors underlying this variation. METHODS: Digitized weekly mandatory notification data for 1905-1925, municipality level, were aggregated into 27 'spatial units' defined by unique combinations of province and population density category (high: more than 4500; mid : 1250-4500; low: less than 1250 inhabitants km-2). Generalized additive regression models were fitted to estimate the associations between notification rates and population density, infant mortality rate and household income, while adjusting for temporal trends per spatial unit. RESULTS: Annual per capita notification rates for both diphtheria and scarlet fever tended to rise from the beginning of the period 1905-1925 until peaking around 1918/1919. Adjusted diphtheria notification rates were higher for high- and mid- compared with low-density municipalities (by 71.6 cases per 100 000, 95% confidence interval (CI) : 52.7-90.5; 39.0/100 k, 95% CI : 24.7-53.3, respectively). Scarlet fever showed similar associations with population density (35.7 cases per 100 000, 95% CI : 9.4-62.0; 21.4/100 k, 95% CI: 1.5-41.3). CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable spatial variation in notification rates for both diseases in early twentieth century Netherlands, which could partly be explained by factors capturing variation in living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. These findings aid understanding of contemporary respiratory infection transmission.

A proposal for further developing fatigue-related post COVID-19 health states for burden of disease studies.

Previous efforts to estimate the burden of fatigue-related symptoms due to long COVID have a very high threshold for inclusion of cases, relative to the proposed definition from the World Health Organization. In practice this means that milder cases, that may be occurring very frequently, are not included in estimates of the burden of long COVID which will result in underestimation. A more comprehensive approach to modelling the disease burden from long COVID, in relation to fatigue, can ensure that we do not only focus on what is easiest to measure; which risks losing focus of less severe health states that may be more difficult to measure but are occurring very frequently. Our proposed approach provides a means to better understand the scale of challenge from long COVID, for consideration when preventative and mitigative action is being planned.

Mortality among individuals prescribed opioid-agonist therapy in Scotland, UK, 2011-20: a national retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drug-related death (DRD) rate in Scotland, UK, has increased rapidly to one of the highest in the world. Our aim was to examine the extent to which opioid-agonist therapy (OAT) in Scotland is protective against drug-related mortality and how this effect has varied over time. METHODS: We included individuals in Scotland with opioid use disorder who received at least one OAT prescription between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2020. We calculated drug-related mortality rates and used Quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate trends over time and by OAT exposure, adjusting for potential confounding. FINDINGS: In a cohort of 46 453 individuals prescribed OAT with a total of 304 000 person-years of follow-up, DRD rates more than trebled from 6·36 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5·73-7·01) in 2011-12 to 21·45 (20·31-22·63) in 2019-20. DRD rates were almost three and a half times higher (hazard ratio 3·37; 95% CI 1·74-6·53) for those off OAT compared with those on OAT after adjustment for confounders. However, confounder adjusted DRD risk increased over time for both people off and on OAT. INTERPRETATION: Drug-related mortality rates among people with opioid use disorders in Scotland increased between 2011 and 2020. OAT remains protective but is insufficient on its own to slow the increase in DRD risk for people who are opioid dependent in Scotland. FUNDING: Scottish Government Drug Deaths Taskforce, Public Health Scotland, and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Inference of age-dependent case-fatality ratios for seasonal influenza virus subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 and B lineages using data from the Netherlands.

Background: Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality. Methods: The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/2012 through 2019/2020 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimate influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group. Results: Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09 and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age. Conclusions: These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination and for health economic evaluations.

Number of COVID-19 hospitalisations averted by vaccination: Estimates for the Netherlands, January 6, 2021 through August 30, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines against COVID-19 have proven effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalisation. In this study, we aimed to quantify part of the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination by estimating the number of averted hospitalisations. We present results from the beginning of the vaccination campaign ('entire period', January 6, 2021) and a subperiod starting at August 2, 2021 ('subperiod') when all adults had the opportunity to complete their primary series, both until August 30, 2022. METHODS: Using calendar-time specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates and vaccine coverage (VC) by round (primary series, first booster and second booster) and the observed number of COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, we estimated the number of averted hospitalisations per age group for the two study periods. From January 25, 2022, when registration of the indication of hospitalisation started, hospitalisations not causally related to COVID-19 were excluded. RESULTS: In the entire period, an estimated 98,170 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 96,123-99,928) hospitalisations were averted, of which 90,753 (95 % CI 88,790-92,531) were in the subperiod, representing 57.0 % and 67.9 % of all estimated hospital admissions. Estimated averted hospitalisations were lowest for 12-49-year-olds and highest for 70-79-year-olds. More admissions were averted in the Delta period (72.3 %) than in the Omicron period (63.4 %). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccination prevented a large number of hospitalisations. Although the counterfactual of having had no vaccinations while maintaining the same public health measures is unrealistic, these findings underline the public health importance of the vaccination campaign to policy makers and the public.

Evaluation of heterogeneity in effect of therapeutic hypothermia by sex among infants with neonatal encephalopathy.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to examine heterogeneity in the effect of therapeutic hypothermia by sex in infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Induced Hypothermia trial, which included infants born at gestational ages ≥36 weeks, admitted at ≤6 postnatal hours with evidence of severe acidosis or perinatal complications and moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. Multivariate modified Poisson regression models were used to compare the treatment effect of whole-body hypothermia versus control, with an evaluation of interaction by sex, on the primary outcome of death or moderate or severe disability at 18-22 months of corrected age. RESULTS: A total of 101 infants (51 male, 50 female) were randomly assigned to hypothermia treatment and 104 infants (64 male, 40 female) to control. The primary outcome occurred in 45% of the hypothermia group and 63% of the control group (RR 0.73; 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). There was no significant difference (interaction P = 0.50) in the treatment effect of hypothermia on the primary outcome between females (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.54, 1.17) compared to males (RR 0.63; 95% CI 0.44, 0.91). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that sex influences the treatment effect of hypothermia in infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. IMPACT: Preclinical evidence suggests a differential effect in response to cooling treatment of hypoxic-ischemic injury between males and females. We found no evidence of heterogeneity in the treatment effect of whole-body hypothermia by sex in this post hoc subgroup analysis of infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Induced Hypothermia trial.

Antiseizure medication at discharge in infants with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess variability in continuation of antiseizure medication (ASM) at discharge and to evaluate if continuation of ASM at discharge is associated with death or disability among infants with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) and seizures. DESIGN: Retrospective study of infants enrolled in three National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Trials of therapeutic hypothermia. SETTING: 22 US centres. PATIENTS: Infants with HIE who survived to discharge and had clinical or electrographic seizures treated with ASM. EXPOSURES: ASM continued or discontinued at discharge. OUTCOMES: Death or moderate-to-severe disability at 18-22 months, using trial definitions. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated the association between continuation of ASM at discharge and the primary outcome, adjusting for severity of HIE, hypothermia trial treatment arm, use of electroencephalogram, discharge on gavage feeds, Apgar Score at 5 min, birth year and centre. RESULTS: Of 302 infants included, 61% were continued on ASMs at discharge (range 13%-100% among 22 centres). Electroencephalogram use occurred in 92% of the cohort. Infants with severe HIE comprised 24% and 22% of those discharged with and without ASM, respectively. The risk of death or moderate-to-severe disability was greater for infants continued on ASM at discharge, compared with those infants discharged without ASM (44% vs 28%, adjusted OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.13 to 4.05). CONCLUSIONS: In infants with HIE and seizures, continuation of ASM at discharge varies substantially among centres and may be associated with a higher risk of death or disability at 18-22 months of age.

Improved health-related quality of life after hepatitis C viraemic clearance among people who inject drugs may not be durable.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has a detrimental impact on health-related quality of life (QoL). Scale-up of HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy among people who inject drugs (PWID) is underway in several countries since the introduction of interferon-free regimens. This study aimed to assess the impact of DAA treatment success on QoL for PWID. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using two rounds of the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative, a national anonymous bio-behavioural survey and a longitudinal study involving PWID who underwent DAA therapy. SETTING: The setting for the cross-sectional study was Scotland (2017-2018, 2019-2020). The setting for the longitudinal study was the Tayside region of Scotland (2019-2021). PARTICIPANTS: In the cross-sectional study PWID were recruited from services providing injecting equipment (n = 4009). In the longitudinal study, participants were PWID on DAA therapy (n = 83). MEASUREMENTS: In the cross-sectional study, the association between QoL (measured using the EQ-5D-5L quality of life instrument) and HCV diagnosis and treatment was assessed using multilevel linear regression. In the longitudinal study, QoL was compared at four timepoints using multilevel regression, from treatment commencement until 12 months following commencement. FINDINGS: In the cross-sectional study, 41% (n = 1618) were ever chronically HCV infected, of whom 78% (n = 1262) were aware of their status and of whom 64% (n = 704) had undergone DAA therapy. There was no evidence for a marked QoL improvement associated with viral clearance among those treated for HCV (B = 0.03; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.09). In the longitudinal study, improved QoL was observed at the sustained virologic response test timepoint (B = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.10-0.27), but this was not maintained at 12 months following start of treatment (B = 0.02; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Successful direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C infection may not lead to a durable improvement in quality of life among people who inject drugs, although there may be a transient improvement around the time of sustained virologic response. Economic models of the impact of scaling-up treatment may need to include more conservative quality of life benefits over and above reductions in mortality, disease progression and transmission of infection.

Burden of infectious disease studies in Europe and the United Kingdom: a review of methodological design choices.

This systematic literature review aimed to provide an overview of the characteristics and methods used in studies applying the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) concept for infectious diseases within European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA)/European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries and the United Kingdom. Electronic databases and grey literature were searched for articles reporting the assessment of DALY and its components. We considered studies in which researchers performed DALY calculations using primary epidemiological data input sources. We screened 3053 studies of which 2948 were excluded and 105 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 22 were multi-country and 83 were single-country studies, of which 46 were from the Netherlands. Food- and water-borne diseases were the most frequently studied infectious diseases. Between 2015 and 2022, the number of burden of infectious disease studies was 1.6 times higher compared to that published between 2000 and 2014. Almost all studies (97%) estimated DALYs based on the incidence- and pathogen-based approach and without social weighting functions; however, there was less methodological consensus with regards to the disability weights and life tables that were applied. The number of burden of infectious disease studies undertaken across Europe has increased over time. Development and use of guidelines will promote performing burden of infectious disease studies and facilitate comparability of the results.

The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906-1920: a historical analysis.

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years.

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies.

Objectives: Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years. Methods: The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021. Results: National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic. Discussion: Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Online clinical tool to estimate risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE: Develop an online estimator that accurately predicts bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) severity or death using readily-available demographic and clinical data. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data entered into a prospective registry. SETTING: Infants cared for at centres of the United States Neonatal Research Network between 2011 and 2017. PATIENTS: Infants 501-1250 g birth weight and 23 0/7-28 6/7 weeks' gestation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Separate multinomial regression models for postnatal days 1, 3, 7, 14 and 28 were developed to estimate the individual probabilities of death or BPD severity (no BPD, grade 1 BPD, grade 2 BPD, grade 3 BPD) defined according to the mode of respiratory support administered at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age. RESULTS: Among 9181 included infants, birth weight was most predictive of death or BPD severity on postnatal day 1, while mode of respiratory support was the most predictive factor on days 3, 7, 14 and 28. The predictive accuracy of the models increased at each time period from postnatal day 1 (C-statistic: 0.674) to postnatal day 28 (C-statistic 0.741). We used these results to develop a web-based model that provides predicted estimates for BPD by postnatal day. CONCLUSION: The probability of BPD or death in extremely preterm infants can be estimated with reasonable accuracy using a limited amount of readily available clinical information. This tool may aid clinical prognostication, future research, and center-specific quality improvement surrounding BPD prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00063063.