Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants.

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long-term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short-term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short-term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time-to-event analysis on a database of unusually well-monitored and long-term (4-28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life-history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time-lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life-history theory with short-lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long-lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long-lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short-lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life-history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life-history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long-term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life-histories take decades to unfold.

Efectos de la Historia de Vida y la Reproducción sobre las Demoras en el Tiempo de Reclutamiento en la Reintroducción de Plantas Raras Resumen Las reintroducciones son componentes importantes de los programas de conservación y recuperación de especies raras de plantas, pero las tasas de éxito a largo plazo cuentan con muy poco entendimiento. Las revisiones previas de las reintroducciones de plantas se han enfocado en la supervivencia a corto plazo (p. ej.: ≤ 3 años) y en el florecimiento de individuos fundadores en lugar de enfocarse en puntos de referencia para la persistencia inter-generacional, como el reclutamiento de plántulas. Sin embargo, las medidas a corto plazo pueden ocultar los resultados ya que las propiedades demográficas únicas de las reintroducciones, incluyendo el menor tamaño y la estructura inestable de estadio, podrían crear demoras en el crecimiento poblacional. Usamos un análisis de tiempo-para-evento en una base de datos de reintroducciones inusualmente bien monitoreadas y de largo plazo (4-28 años) de 27 especies raras de plantas para probar si los atributos de la historia de vida y las características poblacionales de la reintroducción crean respuestas con demoras temporales en el reclutamiento de plántulas (es decir, demoras temporales en el reclutamiento), un punto de referencia importante para el éxito y un indicador de la persistencia en poblaciones reintroducidas. Las demoras temporales de reclutamiento (RTLs, en inglés) fueron muy variables entre las reintroducciones, abarcando desde <1 hasta 17 años después de la instalación. Los patrones de reclutamiento se acoplaron a las predicciones de la teoría de historias de vida, donde las especies de vida corta (especies rápidas) exhibieron RTLs consistentemente más cortas y menos variables que las especies de vida larga (especies lentas). Las RTLs largas ocurrieron en hierbas de vida larga, especialmente en los pastizales, mientras que las RTLs cortas ocurrieron en plantas leñosas subtropicales de vida corta y en hierbas anuales. En todas las historias de vida de las plantas, conforme incrementó la abundancia de adultos reproductivos, las RTLs disminuyeron. Se observaron RTLs altamente variables en las especies con eventos de reintroducción múltiples, lo que sugiere que los procesos locales son igual de importantes que la estrategia de historia de vida para determinar los resultados de las reintroducciones. Las demoras temporales en los resultados de restauración resaltan la necesidad de poner a escala los puntos de referencia de éxito en los programas de monitoreo de reintroducciones que tengan estrategias de historia de vida de las plantas y las propiedades demográficas únicas de las poblaciones restauradas. La obtención de conclusiones sobre el éxito a largo plazo de los programas de reintroducción de plantas es algo prematuro ya que los procesos demográficos de especies con historias de vida lentas tardan décadas en desarrollarse.

Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics.

A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?

Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial. As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately, the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition, and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition.

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores.

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects.