Ki67 and breast cancer mortality in women with invasive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The percentage of cells staining positive for Ki67 is sometimes used for decision-making in patients with early invasive breast cancer (IBC). However, there is uncertainty regarding the most appropriate Ki67 cut points and the influence of interlaboratory measurement variability. We examined the relationship between breast cancer mortality and Ki67 both before and after accounting for interlaboratory variability and 8 patient and tumor characteristics. METHODS: A multicenter cohort study of women with early IBC diagnosed during 2009-2016 in more than 20 NHS hospitals in England and followed until December 31, 2020. RESULTS: Ki67 was strongly prognostic of breast cancer mortality in 8212 women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early IBC (Ptrend < .001). This relationship remained strong after adjustment for patient and tumor characteristics (Ptrend < .001). Standardization for interlaboratory variability did little to alter these results. For women with Ki67 scores of 0%-5%, 6%-10%, 11%-19%, and 20%-29% the corresponding 8-year adjusted cumulative breast cancer mortality risks were 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8% to 4.0%), 3.7% (95% CI = 3.0% to 4.4%), 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), and 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), whereas for women with Ki67 scores of 30%-39% and 40%-100%, these risks were higher, at 5.1% (95% CI = 4.3% to 6.2%) and 7.7% (95% CI = 6.6% to 9.1) (Ptrend < .001). Similar results were obtained when the adjusted analysis was repeated with omission of pathological information about tumor size and nodal involvement, which would not be available preoperatively for patients being considered for neoadjuvant therapy. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm the prognostic value of Ki67 scores of 30% or more in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative early IBC, irrespective of interlaboratory variability. These results also suggest that Ki67 may be useful to aid decision-making in the neoadjuvant setting.

Breast cancer mortality in 500 000 women with early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in England, 1993-2015: population based observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe long term breast cancer mortality among women with a diagnosis of breast cancer in the past and estimate absolute breast cancer mortality risks for groups of patients with a recent diagnosis. DESIGN: Population based observational cohort study. SETTING: Routinely collected data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. PARTICIPANTS: All 512 447 women registered with early invasive breast cancer (involving only breast and possibly axillary nodes) in England during January 1993 to December 2015, with follow-up to December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual breast cancer mortality rates and cumulative risks by time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and nine characteristics of patients and tumours. RESULTS: For women with a diagnosis made within each of the calendar periods 1993-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15, the crude annual breast cancer mortality rate was highest during the five years after diagnosis and then declined. For any given time since diagnosis, crude annual breast cancer mortality rates and risks decreased with increasing calendar period. Crude five year breast cancer mortality risk was 14.4% (95% confidence interval 14.2% to 14.6%) for women with a diagnosis made during 1993-99 and 4.9% (4.8% to 5.0%) for women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15. Adjusted annual breast cancer mortality rates also decreased with increasing calendar period in nearly every patient group, by a factor of about three in oestrogen receptor positive disease and about two in oestrogen receptor negative disease. Considering just the women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15, cumulative five year breast cancer mortality risk varied substantially between women with different characteristics: it was <3% for 62.8% (96 085/153 006) of women but ≥20% for 4.6% (6962/153 006) of women. CONCLUSIONS: These five year breast cancer mortality risks for patients with a recent diagnosis may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today. The prognosis for women with early invasive breast cancer has improved substantially since the 1990s. Most can expect to become long term cancer survivors, although for a few the risk remains appreciable.

A Meta-Analysis of Trials of Partial Breast Irradiation.

PURPOSE: Partial breast irradiation (PBI) is the delivery of radiation therapy (RT) limited to the tumor bed after breast conserving surgery. The results of recent trials of PBI compared with whole breast irradiation (WBI) have suggested conflicting results with respect to local control and toxicity. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to assess effectiveness of PBI and to compare the different techniques. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A meta-analysis of aggregate data from published randomized trials was performed to examine the effectiveness of PBI compared with WBI in patients with invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. Relevant data were extracted. The primary outcome was any ipsilateral breast event (invasive or noninvasive). Secondary outcomes included acute and late toxicity. The results of randomized trials were pooled using a fixed effects model and the inverse variance method. RESULTS: Fifteen trials involving 16,474 patients were identified. The majority of enrolled patients were >60 years of age and had T1N0 grade 1 to 2 disease treated with hormone therapy. The percent of ipsilateral breast events was higher in patients treated with PBI compared with WBI (5.0% vs 2.8%; risk ratio [RR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-2.02). Heterogeneity (P = .0002) was observed between the 4 PBI techniques: external beam RT without computed tomography (CT) planning (RR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.36-3.12); brachytherapy (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.65-2.25); intraoperative RT (RR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.08-3.73); and external beam RT with CT planning (RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.99-1.58). When external beam RT without CT planning and intraoperative RT trials were excluded, the percent of ipsilateral breast events was 3.3% versus 2.6%, respectively (RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.00-1.55; P = .05), and no heterogeneity was observed (P = .92). Overall, acute toxicity was less with PBI, and the effect on late toxicity varied by technique. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, WBI was more effective than PBI, but the effectiveness of PBI was technique related. PBI was less effective when given by external beam RT without CT planning or intraoperative therapy. Although PBI given by multicatheter brachytherapy or external beam RT with CT planning tended to be statistically less effective than WBI, the absolute difference between groups for ipsilateral breast events was very small (<1%), supporting these approaches for women considering PBI.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant breast cancer treatments: A systematic review of their effects on mortality.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant and neoadjuvant breast cancer treatments can reduce breast cancer mortality but may increase mortality from other causes. Information regarding treatment benefits and risks is scattered widely through the literature. To inform clinical practice we collated and reviewed the highest quality evidence. METHODS: Guidelines were searched to identify adjuvant or neoadjuvant treatment options recommended in early invasive breast cancer. For each option, systematic literature searches identified the highest-ranking evidence. For radiotherapy risks, searches for dose-response relationships and modern organ doses were also undertaken. RESULTS: Treatment options recommended in the USA and elsewhere included chemotherapy (anthracycline, taxane, platinum, capecitabine), anti-human epidermal growth factor 2 therapy (trastuzumab, pertuzumab, trastuzumab emtansine, neratinib), endocrine therapy (tamoxifen, aromatase inhibitor, ovarian ablation/suppression) and bisphosphonates. Radiotherapy options were after breast conserving surgery (whole breast, partial breast, tumour bed boost, regional nodes) and after mastectomy (chest wall, regional nodes). Treatment options were supported by randomised evidence, including > 10,000 women for eight treatment comparisons, 1,000-10,000 for fifteen and < 1,000 for one. Most treatment comparisons reduced breast cancer mortality or recurrence by 10-25%, with no increase in non-breast-cancer death. Anthracycline chemotherapy and radiotherapy increased overall non-breast-cancer mortality. Anthracycline risk was from heart disease and leukaemia. Radiation-risks were mainly from heart disease, lung cancer and oesophageal cancer, and increased with increasing heart, lung and oesophagus radiation doses respectively. Taxanes increased leukaemia risk. CONCLUSIONS: These benefits and risks inform treatment decisions for individuals and recommendations for groups of women.

Breast Cancer Diagnostics, Therapy, and Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Population-Based Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, little is known about the actual therapy received by women with BC and their survival outcome at the population level in SSA. This study aims to describe the cancer-directed therapy received by patients with BC at the population level in SSA, compare these results with the NCCN Harmonized Guidelines for SSA (NCCN Harmonized Guidelines), and evaluate the impact on survival. METHODS: Random samples of patients with BC (≥40 patients per registry), diagnosed from 2009 through 2015, were drawn from 11 urban population-based cancer registries from 10 countries (Benin, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Uganda, and Zimbabwe). Active methods were used to update the therapy and outcome data of diagnosed patients ("traced patients"). Excess hazards of death by therapy use were modeled in a relative survival context. RESULTS: A total of 809 patients were included. Additional information was traced for 517 patients (63.8%), and this proportion varied by registry. One in 5 traced patients met the minimum diagnostic criteria (cancer stage and hormone receptor status known) for use of the NCCN Harmonized Guidelines. The hormone receptor status was unknown for 72.5% of patients. Of the traced patients with stage I-III BC (n=320), 50.9% received inadequate or no cancer-directed therapy. Access to therapy differed by registry area. Initiation of adequate therapy and early-stage diagnosis were the most important determinants of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Downstaging BC and improving access to diagnostics and care are necessary steps to increase guideline adherence and improve survival for women in SSA. It will also be important to strengthen health systems and facilities for data management in SSA to facilitate patient follow-up and disease surveillance.

The evolving epidemic of breast cancer in sub-Saharan Africa: Results from the African Cancer Registry Network.

Breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with rapidly increasing incidence rates reported in Uganda and Zimbabwe. However, the magnitude of these rising trends in premenopausal and postmenopausal women is unknown in most African countries. We used data from the African Cancer Registry Network on incident breast cancers in women from 11 population-based cancer registries in 10 countries representing each of the four SSA regions. We explored incidence changes among women before and after age 50 by calendar period and, where possible, generational effects in this unique sub-Saharan African cohort. Temporal trends revealed increasing incidence rates in all registries during the study period, except in Nairobi where rates stabilised during 2010 to 2014 after rapidly increasing from 2003 to 2010 (APC = 8.5 95%, CI: 3.0-14.2). The cumulative risk varied between and within regions, with the highest risks observed in Nairobi-Kenya, Mauritius and the Seychelles. There were similar or more rapidly increasing incidence rates in women aged 50+ compared to women <50 years in all registries except The Gambia. Birth cohort analyses revealed increases in the incidence rates in successive generations of women aged 45 and over in Harare-Zimbabwe and Kampala-Uganda. In conclusion, the incidence of BC is increasing rapidly in many parts of Africa; however, the magnitude of these changes differs. These results highlight the need for urgent actions across the cancer continuum from in-depth risk factor studies to provision of adequate therapy as well as the necessity of supporting the maintenance of good quality population-based cancer registration in Africa.

Cardiac mortality after radiotherapy, chemotherapy and endocrine therapy for breast cancer: Cohort study of 2 million women from 57 cancer registries in 22 countries.

Comparisons of patients receiving different cancer treatments reflect the effects of both treatment and patient selection. In breast cancer, however, if radiotherapy decisions are unrelated to laterality, comparisons of left-sided and right-sided cancers can demonstrate the causal effects of higher-versus-lower cardiac radiation dose. Cardiac mortality was analysed using individual patient data for 1,934,248 women with breast cancer in 22 countries. The median date of diagnosis was 1996 and the interquartile range was 1987-2002. A total of 1,018,505 women were recorded as irradiated, 223,077 as receiving chemotherapy, 317,619 as receiving endocrine therapy and 55,264 died of cardiac disease. Analyses were stratified by time since breast cancer diagnosis, age at diagnosis, calendar year of diagnosis and country. Patient-selection effects were evident for all three treatments. For radiotherapy, there was also evidence of selection according to laterality in women irradiated 1990 or later. In patients irradiated before 1990, there was no such selection and cardiac mortality was higher in left-sided than right-sided cancer (rate ratio [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.17). Left-versus-right cardiac mortality RRs were greater among younger women (1.46, 1.19, 1.20, 1.09 and 1.08 after cancer diagnoses at ages <40, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70+ years, 2ptrend =0.003). Left-versus-right RRs also increased with time since cancer diagnosis (1.03, 1.11, 1.19 and 1.21 during 0-4, 5-14, 15-24 and 25+ years, 2ptrend =0.002) while for women who also received chemotherapy, the left-versus-right RR was 1.42 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.77), compared to 1.10 (1.05-1.16) for women who did not (2pdifference = 0.03). These results show that the relative increase in cardiac mortality from cardiac exposure during breast cancer radiotherapy given in the past was greater in younger women, lasted into the third decade after exposure and was greater when chemotherapy was also given.

Breast cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and human development index: A population-based registry study.

Breast cancer is the leading cancer diagnosis and second most common cause of cancer deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, there are few population-level survival data from Africa and none on the survival differences by stage at diagnosis. Here, we estimate breast cancer survival within SSA by area, stage and country-level human development index (HDI). We obtained data on a random sample of 2,588 breast cancer incident cases, diagnosed in 2008-2015 from 14 population-based cancer registries in 12 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2,311 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival (RS) were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We equally estimated the excess hazards adjusting for potential confounders. Among patients with known stage, 64.9% were diagnosed in late stages, with 18.4% being metastatic at diagnosis. The RS varied by registry, ranging from 21.6%(8.2-39.8) at Year 3 in Bulawayo to 84.5% (70.6-93.5) in Namibia. Patients diagnosed at early stages had a 3-year RS of 78% (71.6-83.3) in contrast to 40.3% (34.9-45.7) at advanced stages (III and IV). The overall RS at Year 1 was 86.1% (84.4-87.6), 65.8% (63.5-68.1) at Year 3 and 59.0% (56.3-61.6) at Year 5. Age at diagnosis was not independently associated with increased mortality risk after adjusting for the effect of stage and country-level HDI. In conclusion, downstaging breast cancer at diagnosis and improving access to quality care could be pivotal in improving breast cancer survival outcomes in Africa.

Cardiac Structure Doses in Women Irradiated for Breast Cancer in the Past and Their Use in Epidemiological Studies.

PURPOSE: Incidental cardiac exposure during radiation therapy may cause heart disease. Dose-response relationships for cardiac structures (segments) may show which ones are most sensitive to radiation. Radiation-related cardiac injury can take years to develop; thus, studies need to involve women treated using 2-dimensional planning, with segment doses estimated using a typical computed tomography (CT) scan. We assessed whether such segment doses are accurate enough to use in dose-response relationships using the radiation therapy charts of women with known segment injury. We estimated interregimen and interpatient segment dose variability and segment dose correlations. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The radiation therapy charts of 470 women with cardiac segment injury after breast cancer radiation therapy were examined, and 41 regimens were identified. Regimens were reconstructed on a typical CT scan. Doses were estimated for 5 left ventricle (LV) and 10 coronary artery segments. Correlations between cardiac segments were estimated. Interpatient dose variation was assessed in 10 randomly selected CT scans for left regimens and in 5 for right regimens. RESULTS: For the typical CT scan, interregimen segment dose variation was substantial (range, LV segments <1-39 Gy; coronary artery segments <1-48 Gy). In 10 CT scans, interpatient segment dose variation was higher for segments near field borders (range, 3-47 Gy) than other segments (range, <2 Gy). Doses to different left-anterior descending coronary artery (LADCA) segments were highly correlated with each other, as were doses to different LV segments. Also, LADCA segment doses were highly correlated with doses to LV segments usually supplied by the LADCA. For individual regimens there was consistency in hotspot location and segment ranking of higher-versus-lower dose. CONCLUSIONS: The scope for developing quantitative cardiac segment dose-response relationships in patients who had 2-dimensional planning is limited because different segment doses are often highly correlated, and segment-specific dose uncertainties are not independent of each other. However, segment-specific doses may be reliably used to rank segments according to higher-versus-lower doses.

Cardiac Structure Injury After Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer: Cross-Sectional Study With Individual Patient Data.

Purpose Incidental cardiac irradiation can cause cardiac injury, but little is known about the effect of radiation on specific cardiac segments. Methods For 456 women who received breast cancer radiotherapy between 1958 and 2001 and then later experienced a major coronary event, information was obtained on the radiotherapy regimen they received and on the location of their cardiac injury. For 414 women, all with documented location of left ventricular (LV) injury, doses to five LV segments were estimated. For 133 women, all with documented location of coronary artery disease with ≥ 70% stenosis, doses to six coronary artery segments were estimated. For each segment, numbers of women with left-sided and right-sided breast cancer were compared. Results Of women with LV injury, 243 had left-sided breast cancer and 171 had right-sided breast cancer (ratio of left v right, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.73), reflecting the higher typical LV radiation doses in left-sided cancer (average dose left-sided, 8.3 Gy; average dose right-sided, 0.6 Gy; left minus right dose difference, 7.7 Gy). For individual LV segments, the ratios of women with left- versus right-sided radiotherapy were as follows: inferior, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.70 to 1.25); lateral, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.95); septal, 2.09 (95% CI, 1.37 to 3.19); anterior, 1.85 (95% CI, 1.39 to 2.46); and apex, 4.64 (95% CI, 2.42 to 8.90); corresponding left-minus-right dose differences for these segments were 2.7, 4.9, 7.2, 10.4, and 21.6 Gy, respectively ( Ptrend < .001). For women with coronary artery disease, the ratios of women with left- versus right-radiotherapy for individual coronary artery segments were as follows: right coronary artery proximal, 0.48 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.91); right coronary artery mid or distal, 1.69 (95% CI, 0.85 to 3.36); circumflex proximal, 1.46 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.96); circumflex distal, 1.11 (95% CI, 0.45 to 2.73); left anterior descending proximal, 1.89 (95% CI, 1.07 to 3.34); and left anterior descending mid or distal, 2.33 (95% CI, 1.19 to 4.59); corresponding left-minus-right dose differences for these segements were -5.0, -2.5, 1.6, 3.5, 9.5, and 38.8 Gy ( Ptrend = .002). Conclusion For individual LV and coronary artery segments, higher radiation doses were strongly associated with more frequent injury, suggesting that all segments are sensitive to radiation and that doses to all segments should be minimized.

20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years.

BACKGROUND: The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment. METHODS: In this meta-analysis of the results of 88 trials involving 62,923 women with ER-positive breast cancer who were disease-free after 5 years of scheduled endocrine therapy, we used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses, stratified according to trial and treatment, to assess the associations of tumor diameter and nodal status (TN), tumor grade, and other factors with patients' outcomes during the period from 5 to 20 years. RESULTS: Breast-cancer recurrences occurred at a steady rate throughout the study period from 5 to 20 years. The risk of distant recurrence was strongly correlated with the original TN status. Among the patients with stage T1 disease, the risk of distant recurrence was 13% with no nodal involvement (T1N0), 20% with one to three nodes involved (T1N1-3), and 34% with four to nine nodes involved (T1N4-9); among those with stage T2 disease, the risks were 19% with T2N0, 26% with T2N1-3, and 41% with T2N4-9. The risk of death from breast cancer was similarly dependent on TN status, but the risk of contralateral breast cancer was not. Given the TN status, the factors of tumor grade (available in 43,590 patients) and Ki-67 status (available in 7692 patients), which are strongly correlated with each other, were of only moderate independent predictive value for distant recurrence, but the status regarding the progesterone receptor (in 54,115 patients) and human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2) (in 15,418 patients in trials with no use of trastuzumab) was not predictive. During the study period from 5 to 20 years, the absolute risk of distant recurrence among patients with T1N0 breast cancer was 10% for low-grade disease, 13% for moderate-grade disease, and 17% for high-grade disease; the corresponding risks of any recurrence or a contralateral breast cancer were 17%, 22%, and 26%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy, breast-cancer recurrences continued to occur steadily throughout the study period from 5 to 20 years. The risk of distant recurrence was strongly correlated with the original TN status, with risks ranging from 10 to 41%, depending on TN status and tumor grade. (Funded by Cancer Research UK and others.).

Risk of heart disease in relation to radiotherapy and chemotherapy with anthracyclines among 19,464 breast cancer patients in Denmark, 1977-2005.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The risk of heart disease subsequent to breast cancer radiotherapy was examined with particular focus on women receiving anthracycline-containing chemotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer in Denmark, 1977-2005, were identified from the register of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group, as was information on cancer-directed treatment. Information on heart disease was sought from the Danish National Patient and Cause of Death Registries. Incidence rate ratios were estimated comparing left-sided with right-sided cancer (IRR, LvR), stratified by calendar year, age, and time since breast cancer radiotherapy. RESULTS: Among 19,464 women receiving radiotherapy, the IRR, LvR, was 1.11 (95% CI 1.03-1.20, p=0.005) for all heart disease and among those also receiving anthracyclines the IRR, LvR, was 1.32 (95% CI 1.02-1.70, p=0.03). This risk was highest if the treatment was given before the age of 50years (IRR, LvR, 1.44, (95% CI 1.04-2.01) but there was no significant trend with age or time since treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Radiotherapy for left-sided breast cancer is associated with a higher risk of heart disease than for right-sided with the largest increases seen in women who also received anthracycline-containing chemotherapy.

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk.

A cardiac contouring atlas for radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The heart is a complex anatomical organ and contouring the cardiac substructures is challenging. This study presents a reproducible method for contouring left ventricular and coronary arterial segments on radiotherapy CT-planning scans. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Segments were defined from cardiology models and agreed by two cardiologists. Reference atlas contours were delineated and written guidelines prepared. Six radiation oncologists tested the atlas. Spatial variation was assessed using the DICE similarity coefficient (DSC) and the directed Hausdorff average distance (d→H,avg). The effect of spatial variation on doses was assessed using six different breast cancer regimens. RESULTS: The atlas enabled contouring of 15 cardiac segments. Inter-observer contour overlap (mean DSC) was 0.60-0.73 for five left ventricular segments and 0.10-0.53 for ten coronary arterial segments. Inter-observer contour separation (mean d→H,avg) was 1.5-2.2mm for left ventricular segments and 1.3-5.1mm for coronary artery segments. This spatial variation resulted in <1Gy dose variation for most regimens and segments, but 1.2-21.8Gy variation for segments close to a field edge. CONCLUSIONS: This cardiac atlas enables reproducible contouring of segments of the left ventricle and main coronary arteries to facilitate future studies relating cardiac radiation doses to clinical outcomes.

Dose and Fractionation in Radiation Therapy of Curative Intent for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials.

PURPOSE: The optimum dose and fractionation in radiation therapy of curative intent for non-small cell lung cancer remains uncertain. We undertook a published data meta-analysis of randomized trials to examine whether radiation therapy regimens with higher time-corrected biologically equivalent doses resulted in longer survival, either when given alone or when given with chemotherapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Eligible studies were randomized comparisons of 2 or more radiation therapy regimens, with other treatments identical. Median survival ratios were calculated for each comparison and pooled. RESULTS: 3795 patients in 25 randomized comparisons of radiation therapy dose were studied. The median survival ratio, higher versus lower corrected dose, was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.22) when radiation therapy was given alone and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71-0.97) when it was given with concurrent chemotherapy (P for difference=.001). In comparisons of radiation therapy given alone, the survival benefit increased with increasing dose difference between randomized treatment arms (P for trend=.004). The benefit increased with increasing dose in the lower-dose arm (P for trend=.01) without reaching a level beyond which no further survival benefit was achieved. The survival benefit did not differ significantly between randomized comparisons where the higher-dose arm was hyperfractionated and those where it was not. There was heterogeneity in the median survival ratio by geographic region (P<.001), average age at randomization (P<.001), and year trial started (P for trend=.004), but not for proportion of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (P=.2). CONCLUSIONS: In trials with concurrent chemotherapy, higher radiation therapy doses resulted in poorer survival, possibly caused, at least in part, by high levels of toxicity. Where radiation therapy was given without chemotherapy, progressively higher radiation therapy doses resulted in progressively longer survival, and no upper dose level was found above which there was no further benefit. These findings support the consideration of further radiation therapy dose escalation trials, making use of modern treatment methods to reduce toxicity.

Inferring the Effects of Cancer Treatment: Divergent Results From Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group Meta-Analyses of Randomized Trials and Observational Data From SEER Registries.

PURPOSE: To compare the effect of breast cancer radiotherapy as estimated from observational data with findings from randomized trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Rate ratios were obtained for selected end points among 13,932 women randomly assigned to receive radiotherapy or not in trials contributing to recent meta-analyses by the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group. Estimates of the same quantities were derived for 393,840 women registered with breast cancer in the US SEER registries between 1973 and 2008. RESULTS: In the randomized trials, radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery reduced mortality from both breast cancer (rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.90) and all causes (rate ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99). Reductions of similar magnitude were seen in the trials of radiotherapy after mastectomy in node-positive disease (rate ratios, breast cancer 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.94; all causes, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.97). In the observational data, radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery was associated with much larger mortality reductions (rate ratios, breast cancer, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.66; all causes, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.65), whereas radiotherapy after mastectomy in node-positive disease was associated with substantial increases in mortality (rate ratios, breast cancer, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.37; all causes, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.25). Detailed adjustment of the observational data for potential confounders did not reduce the divergence from the randomized data. CONCLUSION: This study of mortality after radiotherapy for breast cancer found strikingly divergent results between the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group meta-analyses of randomized data and the SEER observational data, even when efforts had been made to remove confounding and selection biases. Nonrandomized comparisons are liable to provide misleading estimates of treatment effects. Therefore, they need careful justification every time they are used.

Cancer risk in 680,000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. DESIGN: Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. COHORT MEMBERS: 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. MAIN OUTCOME: Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. RESULTS: 60,674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680,211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100,000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.