Response to Comment on "A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago".

Our study on the exact timing and the potential climatic, environmental, and evolutionary consequences of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion has generated the hypothesis that geomagnetism represents an unrecognized driver in environmental and evolutionary change. It is important for this hypothesis to be tested with new data, and encouragingly, none of the studies presented by Picin et al. undermine our model.

Response to Comment on "A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago".

Our paper about the impacts of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion 42,000 years ago has provoked considerable scientific and public interest, particularly in the so-called Adams Event associated with the initial transition of the magnetic poles. Although we welcome the opportunity to discuss our new ideas, Hawks' assertions of misrepresentation are especially disappointing given his limited examination of the material.

A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago.

Geological archives record multiple reversals of Earth's magnetic poles, but the global impacts of these events, if any, remain unclear. Uncertain radiocarbon calibration has limited investigation of the potential effects of the last major magnetic inversion, known as the Laschamps Excursion [41 to 42 thousand years ago (ka)]. We use ancient New Zealand kauri trees (Agathis australis) to develop a detailed record of atmospheric radiocarbon levels across the Laschamps Excursion. We precisely characterize the geomagnetic reversal and perform global chemistry-climate modeling and detailed radiocarbon dating of paleoenvironmental records to investigate impacts. We find that geomagnetic field minima ~42 ka, in combination with Grand Solar Minima, caused substantial changes in atmospheric ozone concentration and circulation, driving synchronous global climate shifts that caused major environmental changes, extinction events, and transformations in the archaeological record.

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Global Peak in Atmospheric Radiocarbon Provides a Potential Definition for the Onset of the Anthropocene Epoch in 1965.

Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the 'Anthropocene'. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C, demonstrating the 'bomb peak' in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II 'Great Acceleration' in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or 'golden spike', marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch.

Functional and environmental determinants of bark thickness in fire-free temperate rain forest communities.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: In fire-prone ecosystems, variation in bark thickness among species and communities has been explained by fire frequency; thick bark is necessary to protect cambium from lethal temperatures. Elsewhere this investment is deemed unnecessary, and thin bark is thought to prevail. However, in rain forest ecosystems where fire is rare, bark thickness varies widely among species and communities, and the causes of this variation remain enigmatic. We tested for functional explanations of bark thickness variation in temperate rain forest species and communities. METHODS: We measured bark thickness in 82 tree species throughout New Zealand temperate rain forests that historically have experienced little fire and applied two complementary analyses. First, we examined correlations between bark traits and leaf habit, and leaf and stem traits. Second, we calculated community-weighted mean (CWM) bark thickness for 272 plots distributed throughout New Zealand to identify the environments in which thicker-barked communities occur. KEY RESULTS: Conifers had higher size-independent bark thickness than evergreen angiosperms. Species with thicker bark or higher bark allocation coefficients were not associated with "slow economic" plant traits. Across 272 forest plots, communities with thicker bark occurred on infertile soils, and communities with thicker bark and higher bark allocation coefficients occurred in cooler, drier climates. CONCLUSIONS: In non-fire-prone temperate rain forest ecosystems, investment in bark is driven by soil resources, cool minimum temperatures, and seasonal moisture stress. The role of these factors in fire-prone ecosystems warrants testing.

Long-term ecology resolves the timing, region of origin and process of establishment for a disputed alien tree.

Alien plants are a pervasive environmental problem, particularly on islands where they can rapidly transform unique indigenous ecosystems. However, often it is difficult to confidently determine whether a species is native or alien, especially if establishment occurred before historical records. This can present a management challenge: for example, should such taxa be eradicated or left alone until their region of origin and status are clarified? Here we show how combining palaeoecological and historical records can help resolve such dilemmas, using the tree daisy Olearia lyallii on the remote New Zealand subantarctic Auckland Islands as a case study. The status of this tree as native or introduced has remained uncertain for the 175 years since it was first discovered on the Auckland Islands, and its appropriate management is debated. Elsewhere, O. lyallii has a highly restricted distribution on small sea bird-rich islands within a 2° latitudinal band south of mainland New Zealand. Analysis of palaeoecological and historical records from the Auckland Islands suggest that O. lyallii established there c. 1807 when these islands were first exploited by European sealers. Establishment was facilitated by anthropogenic burning and clearing and its subsequent spread has been slow, limited in distribution and probably human-assisted. Olearia lyallii has succeeded mostly in highly disturbed sites which are also nutrient enriched from nesting sea birds, seals and sea spray. This marine subsidy has fuelled the rapid growth of O. lyallii and allowed this tree to be competitive against the maritime communities it has replaced. Although endemic to the New Zealand region, our evidence suggests that O. lyallii is alien to the Auckland Islands. Although such 'native' aliens can pose unique management challenges on islands, in this instance we suggest that ongoing monitoring with no control is an appropriate management action, as O. lyallii appears to pose minimal risk to ecological integrity.

A high-resolution chronology of rapid forest transitions following polynesian arrival in New Zealand.

Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography.

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Rapid landscape transformation in South Island, New Zealand, following initial Polynesian settlement.

Humans have altered natural patterns of fire for millennia, but the impact of human-set fires is thought to have been slight in wet closed-canopy forests. In the South Island of New Zealand, Polynesians (Maori), who arrived 700-800 calibrated years (cal y) ago, and then Europeans, who settled ∼150 cal y ago, used fire as a tool for forest clearance, but the structure and environmental consequences of these fires are poorly understood. High-resolution charcoal and pollen records from 16 lakes were analyzed to reconstruct the fire and vegetation history of the last 1,000 y. Diatom, chironomid, and element concentration data were examined to identify disturbance-related limnobiotic and biogeochemical changes within burned watersheds. At most sites, several high-severity fire events occurred within the first two centuries of Maori arrival and were often accompanied by a transformation in vegetation, slope stability, and lake chemistry. Proxies of past climate suggest that human activity alone, rather than unusually dry or warm conditions, was responsible for this increased fire activity. The transformation of scrub to grassland by Europeans in the mid-19th century triggered further, sometimes severe, watershed change, through additional fires, erosion, and the introduction of nonnative plant species. Alteration of natural disturbance regimes had lasting impacts, primarily because native forests had little or no previous history of fire and little resilience to the severity of burning. Anthropogenic burning in New Zealand highlights the vulnerability of closed-canopy forests to novel disturbance regimes and suggests that similar settings may be less resilient to climate-induced changes in the future.

Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

Phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale.

How and why organisms are distributed as they are has long intrigued evolutionary biologists. The tendency for species to retain their ancestral ecology has been demonstrated in distributions on local and regional scales, but the extent of ecological conservatism over tens of millions of years and across continents has not been assessed. Here we show that biome stasis at speciation has outweighed biome shifts by a ratio of more than 25:1, by inferring ancestral biomes for an ecologically diverse sample of more than 11,000 plant species from around the Southern Hemisphere. Stasis was also prevalent in transocean colonizations. Availability of a suitable biome could have substantially influenced which lineages establish on more than one landmass, in addition to the influence of the rarity of the dispersal events themselves. Conversely, the taxonomic composition of biomes has probably been strongly influenced by the rarity of species' transitions between biomes. This study has implications for the future because if clades have inherently limited capacity to shift biomes, then their evolutionary potential could be strongly compromised by biome contraction as climate changes.

Rapid development of phosphorus limitation in temperate rainforest along the Franz Josef soil chronosequence.

The aim of this study was to examine how shifts in soil nutrient availability along a soil chronosequence affected temperate rainforest vegetation. Soil nutrient availability, woody plant diversity, composition and structure, and woody species leaf and litter nutrient concentrations were quantified along the sequence through ecosystem progression and retrogression. In this super-wet, high leaching environment, the chronosequence exhibited rapid soil development and decline within 120000 years. There were strong gradients of soil pH, N, P and C, and these had a profound effect on vegetation. N:P(leaf) increased along the chronosequence as vegetation shifted from being N- to P- limited. However, high N:P(leaf) ratios, which indicate P-limitation, were obtained on soils with both high and low soil P availability. This was because the high N-inputs from an N-fixing shrub caused vegetation to be P-limited in spite of high soil P availability. Woody species nutrient resorption increased with site age, as availability of N and P declined. Soil P declined 8-fold along the sequence and P resorption proficiency decreased from 0.07 to 0.01%, correspondingly. N resorption proficiency decreased from 1.54 to 0.26%, corresponding to shifts in mineralisable N. Woody plant species richness, vegetation cover and tree height increased through ecosystem progression and then declined. During retrogression, the forest became shorter, more open and less diverse, and there were compositional shifts towards stress-tolerant species. Conifers (of the Podocarpaceae) were the only group to increase in richness along the sequence. Conifers maintained a lower N:P(leaf) than other groups, suggesting superior acquisition of P on poor soils. In conclusion, there was evidence that P limitation and retrogressive forests developed on old soils, but N limitation on very young soils was not apparent because of inputs from an abundant N-fixing shrub.

Cold-induced photoinhibition and winter leaf-loss in the broad-leaved tree Aristotelia serrata (Elaeocarpaceae).

Relationships between cold-induced photoinhibition of photosynthesis and winter leaf-loss were investigated for leaves of a wineberry (Aristotelia serrata J. R. Forst. and G. Forst.) tree. Previous work identified consistent differences in leaf loss between shaded and exposed parts of wineberry trees, possibly related to the adverse effects of cold temperatures and high irradiance during winter frosts. Differences in leaf temperature and irradiance between shaded and exposed parts of a wineberry canopy were quantified, together with their relationships to decline and recovery of cold-induced photoinhibition of photosynthesis (measured by the ratio of variable to maximal chlorophyll fluorescence; Fv / Fm). These data, together with measurements of leaf loss from selected shoots, were used to test the hypothesis that leaf loss is greater from open than from shaded parts of wineberry canopies, and increases with decreases in Fv / Fm following winter frosts. Fv / Fm of leaves on exposed shoots was always significantly (P<0.001) lower than leaves on shaded shoots. The absolute difference in Fv / Fm ranged from 0.11 to 0.57. Fv / Fm declined markedly following periods of freezing leaf temperatures (Tl), but recovered after several days of non-freezing Tl. A multiple regression model, including terms for integrated irradiance (Qi), minimum Tl, Tl at the time of Fv / Fm measurements, and the value of Fv / Fm, on the previous day explained 95% of the variability in daily Fv / Fm. Leaf loss was greater from exposed shoots (0.22 leaves shoot-1 d-1) than from shaded shoots (0.07 leaves shoot-1 d-1; P<0.001) and increased following frost-induced decreases in the value of Fv / Fm. Measured rates of leaf loss from exposed shoots were significantly related to Fv / Fm measured 14d previously (r2=0.89, P<0.01), supporting our hypothesis.