The Improved Kidney Risk Score in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis for Clinical Practice and Trials.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. More than 1500 patients were collated in an international longitudinal study to revise the ANCA kidney risk score. The score showed satisfactory performance, mimicking the original study (Harrell's C=0.779). In the development cohort of 959 patients, no additional parameters aiding the tool were detected, but replacing the GFR with creatinine identified an additional cutoff. The parameter interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy was modified to allow wider access, risk points were reweighted, and a fourth risk group was created, improving predictive ability (C=0.831). In the validation, the new model performed similarly well with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). The revised score optimizes prognostication for clinical practice and trials. BACKGROUND: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. A retrospective international longitudinal cohort was collated to revise the ANCA renal risk score. METHODS: The primary end point was ESKD with patients censored at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazards were used to reweight risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves, Harrell's C statistic, receiver operating characteristics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Of 1591 patients, 1439 were included in the final analyses, 2:1 randomly allocated per center to development and validation cohorts (52% male, median age 64 years). In the development cohort ( n =959), the ANCA renal risk score was validated and calibrated, and parameters were reinvestigated modifying interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy allowing semiquantitative reporting. An additional cutoff for kidney function (K) was identified, and serum creatinine replaced GFR (K0: <250 µ mol/L=0, K1: 250-450 µ mol/L=4, K2: >450 µ mol/L=11 points). The risk points for the percentage of normal glomeruli (N) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (T) were reweighted (N0: >25%=0, N1: 10%-25%=4, N2: <10%=7, T0: none/mild or <25%=0, T1: ≥ mild-moderate or ≥25%=3 points), and four risk groups created: low (0-4 points), moderate (5-11), high (12-18), and very high (21). Discrimination was C=0.831, and the 3-year kidney survival was 96%, 79%, 54%, and 19%, respectively. The revised score performed similarly well in the validation cohort with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). CONCLUSIONS: The updated score optimizes clinicopathologic prognostication for clinical practice and trials.

Outcomes in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis in Scotland: Validation of the Renal Risk Score in a Complete National Cohort.

Introduction: Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) causes autoimmune-mediated inflammation of small blood vessels in multiple organs, including the kidneys. The ability to accurately predict kidney outcomes would enable a more personalized therapeutic approach. Methods: We used our national renal biopsy registry to validate the ability of ANCA Renal Risk Score (ARRS) to predict end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) for individual patients. This score uses histopathological and biochemical data to stratify patients as high, medium, or low risk for developing ESKD. Results: A total of 288 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study (low risk n = 144, medium risk n = 122, high risk n = 12). Using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models with the low-risk group as reference, we show that outcome differs between the categories: high-risk hazard ratio (HR) 16.69 (2.91-95.81, P = 0.002); medium risk HR 4.14 (1.07-16.01, P = 0.039). Incremental multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that adding ARRS to a model adjusted for multiple clinical parameters enhanced predictive discrimination (basic model C-statistic 0.864 [95% CI 0.813-0.914], basic model plus ARRS C-statistic 0.877 [95% CI 0.823-0.931]; P <0.01). Conclusion: The ARRS better discriminates risk of ESKD in AAV and offers clinicians more prognostic information than the use of standard biochemical and clinical measures alone. This is the first time the ARRS has been validated in a national cohort. The proportion of patients with high-risk scores is lower in our cohort compared to others and should be noted as a limitation of this study.

Long-term outcomes in elderly patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis.

OBJECTIVE: ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) is a small vessel vasculitis that commonly presents in the elderly. However, there are few long-term outcome data for these patients. Here, we assessed long-term outcomes in a single-centre cohort of elderly patients with AAV. Additionally, we tested whether a pre-morbid frailty score could aid prognosis. METHODS: Using a prospectively-compiled dataset, we investigated patients over the age of 65 who presented with AAV between 2005 and 2017 to a regional vasculitis centre. We used a Cox model to determine the factors associated with mortality. We also compared outcomes in pre-specified subgroups stratified by baseline frailty score, ANCA serotype and induction immunosuppression (with cyclophosphamide, rituximab or mycophenolate mofetil used as the main glucocorticoid-sparing agent). RESULTS: 83 patients were included in the study and were followed for a median of 1203 days. Median age was 74 years (range 65-92). Two- and five-year survival in the overall cohort were 83% (95% CI 75, 92%) and 75% (95% CI 65, 86%), respectively. The median cumulative dose of oral prednisolone was 2030 mg during the first three months. Only one patient received intravenous glucocorticoids. Age, frailty score and CRP at presentation were independently associated with mortality; all deaths occurred in patients aged over 75 at presentation. Patients treated with a cyclophosphamide-based induction regimen tended to be younger than those treated with rituximab or mycophenolate mofetil. Survival was better in the cyclophosphamide-treated group. CONCLUSION: In the contemporary era, the overall prognosis of AAV in elderly patients is good. Baseline frailty associates with disease outcomes including mortality. A low-dose glucocorticoid regimen (avoiding intravenous methylprednisolone) can be used to treat AAV effectively in elderly patients.