Prevalence of undiagnosed atrial fibrillation in elderly individuals and potential cost-effectiveness of non-invasive ambulatory electrocardiographic screening: The ASSERT-III study.

BACKGROUND: In approximately 10% of patients with implanted pacemakers or defibrillators, previously unrecognized atrial fibrillation (AF) is detected within 3 months. It is unknown whether elderly patients without implanted devices have a similar prevalence of undiagnosed AF using non-invasive ECG monitoring, and if this approach to screening in this population is cost-effective. METHODS: Individuals ≥80 years old attending outpatient clinics without a history of AF and with hypertension and one additional risk factor underwent 30 days of continuous ECG monitoring with an option for an additional 30 days of monitoring if no AF was detected. The primary outcome was AF ≥ 6 min. Cost-effectiveness to prevent stroke was estimated using a Markov model based on observed AF detection rates and data from the published literature. RESULTS: Among 129 patients enrolled, 100 initiated monitoring for an average duration of 36 ±â€¯21 days. The proportion of patients that completed at least 30 days of monitoring was 59%. Average age was 84 ±â€¯3 years and mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.5 ±â€¯1.2. AF ≥ 6 min was documented in 14%, ≥6 h in 8%, and ≥24 h in 3%. One week of monitoring costed $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year-gained, 30 days and 60 days of monitoring costed $70,000 and $84,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous non-invasive ECG monitoring is feasible in elderly patients. Undiagnosed AF is present in many elderly individuals, with 1 in 7 having episodes lasting ≥6 min. One week of monitoring may be cost-effective for stroke prevention in this population.

Design and rationale of the atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress (AFOTS) incidence study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often detected for the first time in patients hospitalized for medical illness or non-cardiovascular surgery. AF occurring transiently with stress (AFOTS) describes this manifestation of AF, which may either be the result of a non-cardiac stressor, or existing paroxysmal AF that was not previously detected. Current estimates of AFOTS incidence are imprecise: ranging from 1 to 44%, owing to the marked heterogeneity in patient populations, identification and methods used to detect AFOTS. METHODS: The prospective, two-centre epidemiological AFOTS Incidence study will enroll 250 consecutive participants without a history of AF but with at increased risk of AF (Age ≥ 65 or >50 with one risk factor for AF) admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) for medical illness or non-cardiac surgery. Upon admission, participants will wear an ECG patch monitor that will remain in place for 14 days, or until discharge from hospital. Patients' consent to participation is deferred for up to 72 h after admission. The primary endpoint is the incidence of AF lasting ≥30 s. The study is powered to detect an AF incidence of 17% ±â€¯5%. RESULTS: We conducted a vanguard feasibility study, and 55 participants have completed participation. The median duration of monitoring was seven days. AF was detected by the clinical team in 8 participants (14%; 95% Confidence Interval 7-26%). CONCLUSIONS: The AFOTS Incidence study will employ a systematic and highly sensitive protocol for detecting AFOTS in medical illness and non-cardiac surgery ICU patients. This study is feasible and will provide a reliable estimate of the true incidence of AFOTS in this population.