Predicting the spread-risk potential of chronic wasting disease to sympatric ungulate species.

Wildlife disease incidence is increasing, resulting in negative impacts on the economy, biodiversity, and potentially human health. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids (wild and captive) which continues to spread geographically resulting in exposure to potential new host species. The disease agent (PrPCWD) is a misfolded conformer of the cellular prion protein (PrPC). In Canada, the disease is endemic in Alberta and Saskatchewan, affecting mule and white-tail deer, with lesser impact on elk and moose. As the disease continues to expand, additional wild ungulate species including bison, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, and pronghorn antelope may be exposed. To better understand the species-barrier, we reviewed the current literature on taxa naturally or experimentally exposed to CWD to identify susceptible and resistant species. We created a phylogeny of these taxa using cytochrome B and found that CWD susceptibility followed the species phylogeny. Using this phylogeny we estimated the probability of CWD susceptibility for wild ungulate species. We then compared PrPC amino acid polymorphisms among these species to identify which sites segregated between susceptible and resistant species. We identified sites that were significantly associated with susceptibility, but they were not fully discriminating. Finally, we sequenced Prnp from 578 wild ungulates to further evaluate their potential susceptibility. Together, these data suggest the host-range for CWD will potentially include pronghorn, mountain goat and bighorn sheep, but bison are likely to be more resistant. These findings highlight the need for monitoring potentially susceptible species as CWD continues to expand.

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population.

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.