ABSTRACT
If current laws and practices continue, health expenditures in the United States will reach $1.7 trillion by the year 2000, an amount equal to 18.1 percent of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP). By the year 2030, as America's baby boomers enter their seventies and eighties, health spending will top $16 trillion, or 32 percent of GDP. The projections presented here incorporate the assumptions and conclusions of the Medicare trustees in their 1992 report to Congress on the status of Medicare, and the 1992 President's budget estimates of Medicaid outlays.
Subject(s)
Forecasting , Health Expenditures/trends , Medicaid/statistics & numerical data , Medicare/statistics & numerical data , Actuarial Analysis , Aged , Data Collection , Demography , Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Insurance, Medigap/economics , Insurance, Medigap/statistics & numerical data , Medicaid/economics , Medicare/economics , Models, Statistical , United StatesSubject(s)
Health Expenditures/trends , Medicaid/statistics & numerical data , Medicare/statistics & numerical data , Forecasting , Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data , Medicaid/organization & administration , Medicare/organization & administration , Organizational Innovation , United StatesABSTRACT
In this article, the authors present a scenario for health expenditures during the 1990s. Assuming that current laws and practices remain unchanged, the Nation will spend $1.6 trillion for health care in the year 2000, an amount equal to 16.4 percent of that year's gross national product. Medicare and Medicaid will foot an increasing share of the Nation's health bill, rising to more than one-third of the total. The factors accounting for growth in national health spending are described as well as the effects of those factors on spending by type of service and by source of funds.
Subject(s)
Forecasting , Health Expenditures/trends , Models, Econometric , Actuarial Analysis , Data Collection , Drug Costs/trends , Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data , Health Workforce/trends , Hospitals, Community/economics , Medicaid/statistics & numerical data , Medicare/statistics & numerical data , Nursing Homes/economics , Personal Health Services/economics , United StatesABSTRACT
In recent years, concern has increased over the rapid growth of health care spending, especially spending on behalf of the aged. In 1987, those 65 years or over comprised 12 percent of the population but consumed 36 percent of total personal health care. This article is an examination of the current and future composition of the population and effects on health care spending. National health accounts aggregates for 1977 and 1987 are split into three age groups, and the consumption patterns of each group are discussed. The variations in spending within the aged cohort are also examined.
Subject(s)
Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data , Health Services for the Aged/economics , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Child , Humans , Insurance, Health/statistics & numerical data , Medicaid/statistics & numerical data , Medicare/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Population , United StatesABSTRACT
National health expenditures are projected to grow to $640 billion by 1990, 11.3 percent of the gross national product. Growth in health spending is expected to moderate to an 8.7 percent average annual rate from 1984 to 1990, compared with a 12.6 percent rate from 1978 to 1984. These projections assume lower estimates of overall economic price growth, lower use of hospital care, and increased use of less expensive types of care. A preliminary analysis of demographic factors reveals that the aging of the population has almost as great an impact as the growth in total population on projected expenditures for many types of health care services.
