Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean.

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

The importance of sample size in marine megafauna tagging studies.

Telemetry is a key, widely used tool to understand marine megafauna distribution, habitat use, behavior, and physiology; however, a critical question remains: "How many animals should be tracked to acquire meaningful data sets?" This question has wide-ranging implications including considerations of statistical power, animal ethics, logistics, and cost. While power analyses can inform sample sizes needed for statistical significance, they require some initial data inputs that are often unavailable. To inform the planning of telemetry and biologging studies of marine megafauna where few or no data are available or where resources are limited, we reviewed the types of information that have been obtained in previously published studies using different sample sizes. We considered sample sizes from one to >100 individuals and synthesized empirical findings, detailing the information that can be gathered with increasing sample sizes. We complement this review with simulations, using real data, to show the impact of sample size when trying to address various research questions in movement ecology of marine megafauna. We also highlight the value of collaborative, synthetic studies to enhance sample sizes and broaden the range, scale, and scope of questions that can be answered.

Chemical capture of wild swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in tropical northern Australia using thiafentanil, etorphine and azaperone combinations.

BACKGROUND: Studying wild animals in situ is fundamental to collecting baseline information, but generally they need to be immobilised for examination, sampling, marking and/or equipping with tracking apparatus. Capturing wild animals is inherently risky and there is a need for immobilisation methods that are safe for both the animals and researchers. METHODS: A total of 16 free-ranging swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) were chemically captured by dart for the application of satellite tracking collars in tropical northern Australia; 7 animals were anesthetised with a thiafentanil-etorphine-azaperone (TEA) combination and 9 animals with a thiafentanil-azaperone (TA) combination. Anaesthesia was reversed with intravenous naltrexone. Mean dosages of etorphine and thiafentanil for animals in the TEA group were 0.01 mg/kg of each drug and mean dosage of thiafentanil for animals in the TA group was 0.02 mg/kg. Total dose per animal of azaperone and naltrexone was 80 mg and 150 mg, respectively. Anaesthetic monitoring was by physical observation of physiological variables, pulse oximetry and capnography. Blood laboratory parameters including creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), serum bicarbonate and anion gap were measured. RESULTS: All subject animals recovered well from anaesthesia despite the occurrence of subclinical acidosis in some patients. There was no significant difference between the treatment groups. Conversely, chase time had an adverse effect on body temperature, irrespective of the anaesthetic combination used. CONCLUSIONS: Thiafentanil and azaperone, with or without etorphine, delivered rapid safe, effective, reversible field anaesthesia in healthy swamp buffalo.

Movement responses to environment: fast inference of variation among southern elephant seals with a mixed effects model.

Like many species, movement patterns of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) are being influenced by long-term environmental change. These seals migrate up to 4,000 km from their breeding colonies, foraging for months in a variety of Southern Ocean habitats. Understanding how movement patterns vary with environmental features and how these relationships differ among individuals employing different foraging strategies can provide insight into foraging performance at a population level. We apply new fast-estimation tools to fit mixed effects within a random walk movement model, rapidly inferring among-individual variability in southern elephant seal environment-movement relationships. We found that seals making foraging trips to the sea ice on or near the Antarctic continental shelf consistently reduced speed and directionality (move persistence) with increasing sea-ice coverage but had variable responses to chlorophyll a concentration, whereas seals foraging in the open ocean reduced move persistence in regions where circumpolar deep water shoaled. Given future climate scenarios, open-ocean foragers may encounter more productive habitat but sea-ice foragers may see reduced habitat availability. Our approach is scalable to large telemetry data sets and allows flexible combinations of mixed effects to be evaluated via model selection, thereby illuminating the ecological context of animal movements that underlie habitat usage.

Convergence of marine megafauna movement patterns in coastal and open oceans.

The extent of increasing anthropogenic impacts on large marine vertebrates partly depends on the animals' movement patterns. Effective conservation requires identification of the key drivers of movement including intrinsic properties and extrinsic constraints associated with the dynamic nature of the environments the animals inhabit. However, the relative importance of intrinsic versus extrinsic factors remains elusive. We analyze a global dataset of ∼2.8 million locations from >2,600 tracked individuals across 50 marine vertebrates evolutionarily separated by millions of years and using different locomotion modes (fly, swim, walk/paddle). Strikingly, movement patterns show a remarkable convergence, being strongly conserved across species and independent of body length and mass, despite these traits ranging over 10 orders of magnitude among the species studied. This represents a fundamental difference between marine and terrestrial vertebrates not previously identified, likely linked to the reduced costs of locomotion in water. Movement patterns were primarily explained by the interaction between species-specific traits and the habitat(s) they move through, resulting in complex movement patterns when moving close to coasts compared with more predictable patterns when moving in open oceans. This distinct difference may be associated with greater complexity within coastal microhabitats, highlighting a critical role of preferred habitat in shaping marine vertebrate global movements. Efforts to develop understanding of the characteristics of vertebrate movement should consider the habitat(s) through which they move to identify how movement patterns will alter with forecasted severe ocean changes, such as reduced Arctic sea ice cover, sea level rise, and declining oxygen content.

A novel field method to distinguish between cryptic carcharhinid sharks, Australian blacktip shark Carcharhinus tilstoni and common blacktip shark C. limbatus, despite the presence of hybrids.

Multivariate and machine-learning methods were used to develop field identification techniques for two species of cryptic blacktip shark. From 112 specimens, precaudal vertebrae (PCV) counts and molecular analysis identified 95 Australian blacktip sharks Carcharhinus tilstoni and 17 common blacktip sharks Carcharhinus limbatus. Molecular analysis also revealed 27 of the 112 were C. tilstoni × C. limbatus hybrids, of which 23 had C. tilstoni PCV counts and four had C. limbatus PCV counts. In the absence of further information about hybrid phenotypes, hybrids were assigned as either C. limbatus or C. tilstoni based on PCV counts. Discriminant analysis achieved 80% successful identification, but machine-learning models were better, achieving 100% successful identification, using six key measurements (fork length, caudal-fin peduncle height, interdorsal space, second dorsal-fin height, pelvic-fin length and pelvic-fin midpoint to first dorsal-fin insertion). Furthermore, pelvic-fin markings could be used for identification: C. limbatus has a distinct black mark >3% of the total pelvic-fin area, while C. tilstoni has markings with diffuse edges, or has smaller or no markings. Machine learning and pelvic-fin marking identification methods were field tested achieving 87 and 90% successful identification, respectively. With further refinement, the techniques developed here will form an important part of a multi-faceted approach to identification of C. tilstoni and C. limbatus and have a clear management and conservation application to these commercially important sharks. The methods developed here are broadly applicable and can be used to resolve species identities in many fisheries where cryptic species exist.

The suppression of Antarctic bottom water formation by melting ice shelves in Prydz Bay.

A fourth production region for the globally important Antarctic bottom water has been attributed to dense shelf water formation in the Cape Darnley Polynya, adjoining Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. Here we show new observations from CTD-instrumented elephant seals in 2011-2013 that provide the first complete assessment of dense shelf water formation in Prydz Bay. After a complex evolution involving opposing contributions from three polynyas (positive) and two ice shelves (negative), dense shelf water (salinity 34.65-34.7) is exported through Prydz Channel. This provides a distinct, relatively fresh contribution to Cape Darnley bottom water. Elsewhere, dense water formation is hindered by the freshwater input from the Amery and West Ice Shelves into the Prydz Bay Gyre. This study highlights the susceptibility of Antarctic bottom water to increased freshwater input from the enhanced melting of ice shelves, and ultimately the potential collapse of Antarctic bottom water formation in a warming climate.

Population differentiation in the context of Holocene climate change for a migratory marine species, the southern elephant seal.

Understanding observed patterns of connectivity requires an understanding of the evolutionary processes that determine genetic structure among populations, with the most common models being associated with isolation by distance, allopatry or vicariance. Pinnipeds are annual breeders with the capacity for extensive range overlap during seasonal migrations, establishing the potential for the evolution of isolation by distance. Here, we assess the pattern of differentiation among six breeding colonies of the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, based on mtDNA and 15 neutral microsatellite DNA markers, and consider measures of their demography and connectivity. We show that all breeding colonies are genetically divergent and that connectivity in this highly mobile pinniped is not strongly associated with geographic distance, but more likely linked to Holocene climate change and demographic processes. Estimates of divergence times between populations were all after the last glacial maximum, and there was evidence for directional migration in a clockwise pattern (with the prevailing current) around the Antarctic. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have contributed to the contemporary genetic structure of southern elephant seal populations and the broader implications.

Southern Ocean frontal structure and sea-ice formation rates revealed by elephant seals.

Polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, with the potential for significant feedbacks between ocean circulation, sea ice, and the ocean carbon cycle. However, the difficulty in obtaining in situ data means that our ability to detect and interpret change is very limited, especially in the Southern Ocean, where the ocean beneath the sea ice remains almost entirely unobserved and the rate of sea-ice formation is poorly known. Here, we show that southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) equipped with oceanographic sensors can measure ocean structure and water mass changes in regions and seasons rarely observed with traditional oceanographic platforms. In particular, seals provided a 30-fold increase in hydrographic profiles from the sea-ice zone, allowing the major fronts to be mapped south of 60 degrees S and sea-ice formation rates to be inferred from changes in upper ocean salinity. Sea-ice production rates peaked in early winter (April-May) during the rapid northward expansion of the pack ice and declined by a factor of 2 to 3 between May and August, in agreement with a three-dimensional coupled ocean-sea-ice model. By measuring the high-latitude ocean during winter, elephant seals fill a "blind spot" in our sampling coverage, enabling the establishment of a truly global ocean-observing system.

To catch a buffalo: field immobilisation of Asian swamp buffalo using etorphine and xylazine.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the efficacy of a mixture of etorphine and xylazine to safely immobilise wild buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in the field. METHODS: Body mass was estimated (to calculate mass-specific dosages) by deriving a predictive relationship between morphometric measurements (body length, height) and mass based on a dataset collected in Vietnam, because the study animals could not be weighed in the field. RESULTS: Mass-specific dosages varied between 0.02 and 0.03 mg/kg for etorphine and between 0.14 and 0.22 mg/kg for xyalazine; induction times varied between 10 and 33 min, mean recumbency time was 68 min, and the mean time to standing was 10 min (range: 10-17 min). CONCLUSIONS: The mixture of ethorphine and xylazine was effective for immobilisation of this species and appeared to have a relatively large safety margin, based on the mass-specific dosages used. The allometric relationships described here should prove useful for those working with wild swamp buffalo.

Effects of age, size and condition of elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) on their intravenous anaesthesia with tiletamine and zolazepam.

Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) were caught as part of a long-term demographic study on Macquarie Island. Over 18 months, 1033 seals were caught by hand and anaesthetised intravenously with a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam. Assessments were made of the effects of variations in the body condition and age at capture of the seals on the characteristics of their anaesthesia, including induction time and weighted recovery time. The size and condition of the seals were assessed by morphometric and ultrasound measurements. Weighted recovery times decreased as the body condition and age of the seals increased, but there were no residual effects of sex. There were no fatalities, and no periods of apnoea longer than five minutes were recorded. In individual seals there was a significant increase in weighted recovery time with successive captures.

Arbovirus of marine mammals: a new alphavirus isolated from the elephant seal louse, Lepidophthirus macrorhini.

A novel alphavirus was isolated from the louse Lepidophthirus macrorhini, collected from southern elephant seals, Mirounga leonina, on Macquarie Island, Australia. The virus displayed classic alphavirus ultrastructure and appeared to be serologically different from known Australasian alphaviruses. Nearly all Macquarie Island elephant seals tested had neutralizing antibodies against the virus, but no virus-associated pathology has been identified. Antarctic Division personnel who have worked extensively with elephant seals showed no serological evidence of exposure to the virus. Sequence analysis illustrated that the southern elephant seal (SES) virus segregates with the Semliki Forest group of Australasian alphaviruses. Phylogenetic analysis of known alphaviruses suggests that alphaviruses might be grouped according to their enzootic vertebrate host class. The SES virus represents the first arbovirus of marine mammals and illustrates that alphaviruses can inhabit Antarctica and that alphaviruses can be transmitted by lice.

Field immobilisation of southern elephant seals with intravenous tiletamine and zolazepam.

Southern elephant seals (Miroungo leonina) were immobilised with a mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam administered intravenously at a mean (sd) dose rate of 0.46 (0.08) mg/kg. This dose provided a satisfactory degree of anaesthesia with no side effects, and the induction, duration and recovery times were short. The mean (sd) induction time was 26 (9) seconds and the mean level of anaesthesia was 4.4 units on an eight-point scale. Male seals were given less drug than female seals, remained immobilised for shorter periods and recovered sooner. The mean (sd) dose of drug administered to males was 0.44 (0.06) mg/kg and to females 0.48 (0.08) mg/kg, and the mean (sd) duration times were 14.9 (4.5) minutes and 16.1 (5.3) minutes. The mean (sd) time taken to recover from immobilisation was 14.5 (4.6) minutes for males and 15.7 (5.3) minutes for females. Physiological condition and size significantly affected the duration of anaesthesia. Thin seals remained immobilised for 18 (7) minutes whereas fatter seals remained immobilised for 15 (4) minutes (P<0.0001).