Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks.

Globally, glaciers and icefields contribute significantly to sea level rise. Here we show that ice loss from Juneau Icefield, a plateau icefield in Alaska, accelerated after 2005 AD. Rates of area shrinkage were 5 times faster from 2015-2019 than from 1979-1990. Glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent (0.65-1.01 km3 a-1) from 1770-1979 AD, rising to 3.08-3.72 km3 a-1 from 1979-2010, and then doubling after 2010 AD, reaching 5.91 ± 0.80 km3 a-1 (2010-2020). Thinning has become pervasive across the icefield plateau since 2005, accompanied by glacier recession and fragmentation. Rising equilibrium line altitudes and increasing ablation across the plateau has driven a series of hypsometrically controlled melt-accelerating feedbacks and resulted in the observed acceleration in mass loss. As glacier thinning on the plateau continues, a mass balance-elevation feedback is likely to inhibit future glacier regrowth, potentially pushing glaciers beyond a dynamic tipping point.

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters.

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

Hot Spots of Glacier Mass Balance Variability in Central Asia.

The Tien Shan and Pamir mountains host over 28,000 glaciers providing essential water resources for increasing water demand in Central Asia. A disequilibrium between glaciers and climate affects meltwater release to Central Asian rivers, challenging the region's water availability. Previous research has neglected temporal variability. We present glacier mass balance estimates based on transient snowline and geodetic surveys with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution from 1999/00 to 2017/18. Our results reveal spatiotemporal heterogeneity characterized by two mass balance clusters: (a) positive, low variability, and (b) negative, high variability. This translates into variable glacial meltwater release (≈1-16%) of annual river runoff for two watersheds. Our study reveals more complex climate forcing-runoff responses and importance of glacial meltwater variability for the region than suggested previously.

Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology1, raising global sea level2 and elevating natural hazards3. Yet, owing to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is known only partially, as a geographic and temporal patchwork4,5. Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasting, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. Using largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth's glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present a globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that during 2000-2019, glaciers lost a mass of 267 ± 16 gigatonnes per year, equivalent to 21 ± 3 per cent of the observed sea-level rise6. We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48 ± 16 gigatonnes per year per decade, explaining 6 to 19 per cent of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the past two decades. Glaciers currently lose more mass, and at similar or larger acceleration rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately7-9. By uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasting glacier fluctuations that agree with the decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. These include a North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from northwestern American glaciers, and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain10. We anticipate our highly resolved estimates to advance the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the local- and regional-scale management of water resources and cryospheric risks, as well as for the global-scale mitigation of sea-level rise.

Dynamic vulnerability revealed in the collapse of an Arctic tidewater glacier.

Glacier flow instabilities can rapidly increase sea level through enhanced ice discharge. Surge-type glacier accelerations often occur with a decadal to centennial cyclicity suggesting internal mechanisms responsible. Recently, many surging tidewater glaciers around the Arctic Barents Sea region question whether external forces such as climate can trigger dynamic instabilities. Here, we identify a mechanism in which climate change can instigate surges of Arctic tidewater glaciers. Using satellite and seismic remote sensing observations combined with three-dimensional thermo-mechanical modeling of the January 2009 collapse of the Nathorst Glacier System (NGS) in Svalbard, we show that an underlying condition for instability was basal freezing and associated friction increase under the glacier tongue. In contrast, continued basal sliding further upstream increased driving stresses until eventual and sudden till failure under the tongue. The instability propagated rapidly up-glacier, mobilizing the entire 450 km2 glacier basin over a few days as the till entered an unstable friction regime. Enhanced mass loss during and after the collapse (5-7 fold compared to pre-collapse mass losses) combined with regionally rising equilibrium line altitudes strongly limit mass replenishment of the glacier, suggesting irreversible consequences. Climate plays a paradoxical role as cold glacier thinning and retreat promote basal freezing which increases friction at the tongue by stabilizing an efficient basal drainage system. However, with some of the most intense atmospheric warming on Earth occurring in the Arctic, increased melt water can reduce till strength under tidewater glacier tongues to orchestrate a temporal clustering of surges at decadal timescales, such as those observed in Svalbard at the end of the Little Ice Age. Consequently, basal terminus freezing promotes a dynamic vulnerability to climate change that may be present in many Arctic tidewater glaciers.

Quantification and Analysis of Icebergs in a Tidewater Glacier Fjord Using an Object-Based Approach.

Tidewater glaciers are glaciers that terminate in, and calve icebergs into, the ocean. In addition to the influence that tidewater glaciers have on physical and chemical oceanography, floating icebergs serve as habitat for marine animals such as harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii). The availability and spatial distribution of glacier ice in the fjords is likely a key environmental variable that influences the abundance and distribution of selected marine mammals; however, the amount of ice and the fine-scale characteristics of ice in fjords have not been systematically quantified. Given the predicted changes in glacier habitat, there is a need for the development of methods that could be broadly applied to quantify changes in available ice habitat in tidewater glacier fjords. We present a case study to describe a novel method that uses object-based image analysis (OBIA) to classify floating glacier ice in a tidewater glacier fjord from high-resolution aerial digital imagery. Our objectives were to (i) develop workflows and rule sets to classify high spatial resolution airborne imagery of floating glacier ice; (ii) quantify the amount and fine-scale characteristics of floating glacier ice; (iii) and develop processes for automating the object-based analysis of floating glacier ice for large number of images from a representative survey day during June 2007 in Johns Hopkins Inlet (JHI), a tidewater glacier fjord in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska. On 18 June 2007, JHI was comprised of brash ice ([Formula: see text] = 45.2%, SD = 41.5%), water ([Formula: see text] = 52.7%, SD = 42.3%), and icebergs ([Formula: see text] = 2.1%, SD = 1.4%). Average iceberg size per scene was 5.7 m2 (SD = 2.6 m2). We estimate the total area (± uncertainty) of iceberg habitat in the fjord to be 455,400 ± 123,000 m2. The method works well for classifying icebergs across scenes (classification accuracy of 75.6%); the largest classification errors occur in areas with densely-packed ice, low contrast between neighboring ice cover, or dark or sediment-covered ice, where icebergs may be misclassified as brash ice about 20% of the time. OBIA is a powerful image classification tool, and the method we present could be adapted and applied to other ice habitats, such as sea ice, to assess changes in ice characteristics and availability.