Heterogeneity in breeding productivity is driven largely by factors affecting nestlings and young fledglings in an imperiled migratory passerine.

Identifying factors that drive variation in vital rates among populations is a prerequisite to understanding a species' population biology and, ultimately, to developing effective conservation strategies. This is especially true for imperiled species like the golden-winged warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) that exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in demography and responds variably to conservation interventions. Habitat management actions recommended for breeding grounds conservation include timber harvest, shrub shearing, and prescribed fire that maintain or create early successional woody communities. Herein, we assessed variation in the survival of nests [n = 145] and fledglings [n = 134] at 17 regenerating timber harvest sites within two isolated populations in Pennsylvania that differed in productivity and response to habitat management. Although the overall survival of nests and fledglings was higher in the eastern population than the central population, this was only true when the nest phases and fledgling phases were considered wholly. Indeed, survival rates of nestlings and recently fledged young (1-5 days post-fledging) were lower in the central population, whereas eggs and older fledglings (6-30 days post-fledging) survived at comparable rates in both populations. Fledglings in the central population were smaller (10% lower weight) and begged twice as much as those in the eastern population, suggesting food limitation may contribute to lower survival rates. Fledgling survival in the central population, but not the eastern, also was a function of habitat features (understory vegetation density [positive] and distance to mature forest [negative]) and individual factors (begging effort [negative]). Our findings illustrate how identifying how survival varies across specific life stages can elucidate potential underlying demographic drivers, such as food resources in this case. In this way, our work underscores the importance of studying and decomposing stage-specific demography in species of conservation concern.

Illuminating patterns of firefly abundance using citizen science data and machine learning models.

As insect populations decline in many regions, conservation biologists are increasingly tasked with identifying factors that threaten insect species and developing effective strategies for their conservation. One insect group of global conservation concern are fireflies (Coleoptera: Lampyridae). Although quantitative data on firefly populations are lacking for most species, anecdotal reports suggest that some firefly populations have declined in recent decades. Researchers have hypothesized that North American firefly populations are most threatened by habitat loss, pesticide use, and light pollution, but the importance of these factors in shaping firefly populations has not been rigorously examined at broad spatial scales. Using data from >24,000 surveys (spanning 2008-16) from the citizen science program Firefly Watch, we trained machine learning models to evaluate the relative importance of a variety of factors on bioluminescent firefly populations: pesticides, artificial lights at night, land cover, soil/topography, short-term weather, and long-term climate. Our analyses revealed that firefly abundance was driven by complex interactions among soil conditions (e.g., percent sand composition), climate/weather (e.g., growing degree days), and land cover characteristics (e.g., percent agriculture and impervious cover). Given the significant impact that climactic and weather conditions have on firefly abundance, there is a strong likelihood that firefly populations will be influenced by climate change, with some regions becoming higher quality and supporting larger firefly populations, and others potentially losing populations altogether. Collectively, our results support hypotheses related to factors threatening firefly populations, especially habitat loss, and suggest that climate change may pose a greater threat than appreciated in previous assessments. Thus, future conservation of North American firefly populations will depend upon 1) consistent and continued monitoring of populations via programs like Firefly Watch, 2) efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change, and 3) insect-friendly conservation practices.

Factors driving bumble bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Bombus) and butterfly (Lepidoptera: Rhopalocera) use of sheared shrubland and young forest communities of the western Great Lakes.

In the northern Great Lakes region, the creation and maintenance of early-successional woody communities as wildlife habitat have increasingly become a conservation priority. The extent to which insect pollinators use these systems remains largely anecdotal. In summer (June-August) of 2021, we surveyed 49 early-successional sites in the western Great Lakes region treated with either shrub-shearing or silviculture (young forest) for bumble bees, butterflies, and habitat components (i.e., structural vegetation and floral resources). Hierarchical distance models predicted pollinator densities (λ^) to be, on average, λ^ = 84 bumble bees/ha and λ^ = 102 butterflies/ha. Although sheared shrubland and young forest communities supported comparable densities of bumble bees and butterflies, density was not equal across all sites. At the microhabitat scale, butterfly density and morphospecies richness were negatively associated with tall shrub cover and butterfly morphospecies richness (but not density) was driven by floral richness. Similarly, bumble bee density was positively associated with metrics of floral resources, underscoring the importance of blooming plants within these woody systems. Landscape covariates explained variation in butterfly density/richness but not bumble bee density. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that blooming plant abundance is an important driver of bumble bee and butterfly densities within these managed early-successional communities. Because early-successional woody communities are dynamic and their herbaceous openings are ephemeral, routine management would ensure that a variety of successional conditions exist on the landscape to meet the needs of bumble bees, butterflies, and potentially other insect pollinators.

Local habitat type influences bumble bee pathogen loads and bee species distributions.

Bumble bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae, Bombus Latreille) perform important ecological services in both managed and natural ecosystems. Anthropogenically induced change has altered floral resources, climate, and insecticide exposure, factors that impact health and disease levels in these bees. Habitat management presents a solution for improving bee health and biodiversity, but this requires better understanding of how different pathogens and bee species respond to habitat conditions. We take advantage of the washboard of repeated ridges (forested) and valleys (mostly developed) in central Pennsylvania to examine whether local variation in habitat type and other landscape factors influence bumble bee community composition and levels of 4 leading pathogens in the common eastern bumble bee, Bombus impatiens Cresson. Loads of viruses (DWV and BQCV) were found to be lowest in forest habitats, whereas loads of a gut parasite, Crithidia bombi, were highest in forests. Ridgetop forests hosted the most diverse bumble bee communities, including several habitat specialists. B. impatiens was most abundant in valleys, and showed higher incidence in areas of greater disturbance, including more developed, unforested, and lower floral resource sites, a pattern which mirrors its success in the face of anthropogenic change. Additionally, DNA barcoding revealed that B. sandersoni is much more common than is apparent from databases. Our results provide evidence that habitat type can play a large role in pathogen load dynamics, but in ways that differ by pathogen type, and point to a need for consideration of habitat at both macro-ecological and local spatial scales.

Strong yet incomplete reproductive isolation in Vermivora is not contradicted by other lines of evidence: A reply to Toews et al.

Toews et al. assert that strong reproductive isolation in Vermivora is inconsistent with other lines of evidence. Here, we discuss how strong yet incomplete reproductive isolation is consistent with other results from this system.

Bumble bees in landscapes with abundant floral resources have lower pathogen loads.

The pollination services provided by bees are essential for supporting natural and agricultural ecosystems. However, bee population declines have been documented across the world. Many of the factors known to undermine bee health (e.g., poor nutrition) can decrease immunocompetence and, thereby, increase bees' susceptibility to diseases. Given the myriad of stressors that can exacerbate disease in wild bee populations, assessments of the relative impact of landscape habitat conditions on bee pathogen prevalence are needed to effectively conserve pollinator populations. Herein, we assess how landscape-level conditions, including various metrics of floral/nesting resources, insecticides, weather, and honey bee (Apis mellifera) abundance, drive variation in wild bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) pathogen loads. Specifically, we screened 890 bumble bee workers from varied habitats in Pennsylvania, USA for three pathogens (deformed wing virus, black queen cell virus, and Vairimorpha (= Nosema) bombi), Defensin expression, and body size. Bumble bees collected within low-quality landscapes exhibited the highest pathogen loads, with spring floral resources and nesting habitat availability serving as the main drivers. We also found higher loads of pathogens where honey bee apiaries are more abundant, a positive relationship between Vairimorpha loads and rainfall, and differences in pathogens by geographic region. Collectively, our results highlight the need to support high-quality landscapes (i.e., those with abundant floral/nesting resources) to maintain healthy wild bee populations.

Parental benefits and offspring costs reflect parent-offspring conflict over the age of fledging among songbirds.

Parent-offspring conflict has explained a variety of ecological phenomena across animal taxa, but its role in mediating when songbirds fledge remains controversial. Specifically, ecologists have long debated the influence of songbird parents on the age of fledging: Do parents manipulate offspring into fledging to optimize their own fitness or do offspring choose when to leave? To provide greater insight into parent-offspring conflict over fledging age in songbirds, we compared nesting and postfledging survival rates across 18 species from eight studies in the continental United States. For 12 species (67%), we found that fledging transitions offspring from comparatively safe nesting environments to more dangerous postfledging ones, resulting in a postfledging bottleneck. This raises an important question: as past research shows that offspring would benefit-improve postfledging survival-by staying in the nest longer: Why then do they fledge so early? Our findings suggest that parents manipulate offspring into fledging early for their own benefit, but at the cost of survival for each individual offspring, reflecting parent-offspring conflict. Early fledging incurred, on average, a 13.6% postfledging survival cost for each individual offspring, but parents benefitted through a 14.0% increase in the likelihood of raising at least one offspring to independence. These parental benefits were uneven across species-driven by an interaction between nest mortality risk and brood size-and predicted the age of fledging among species. Collectively, our results suggest that parent-offspring conflict and associated parental benefits explain variation in fledging age among songbird species and why postfledging bottlenecks occur.

Implications for evolutionary trends from the pairing frequencies among golden-winged and blue-winged warblers and their hybrids.

Extensive range loss for the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) has occurred in areas of intrusion by the Blue-winged Warbler (V. cyanoptera) potentially related to their close genetic relationship. We compiled data on social pairing from nine studies for 2,679 resident Vermivora to assess evolutionary divergence. Hybridization between pure phenotypes occurred with 1.2% of resident males for sympatric populations. Pairing success rates for Golden-winged Warblers was 83% and for Blue-winged Warblers was 77%. Pairing success for the hybrid Brewster's Warbler was significantly lower from both species at 54%, showing sexual selection against hybrids. Backcross frequencies for Golden-winged Warblers at 4.9% were significantly higher than for Blue-winged Warblers at 1.7%. More frequent backcrossing by Golden-winged Warblers, which produces hybrid phenotypes, may contribute to the replacement of Golden-winged by Blue-winged Warblers. Reproductive isolation due to behavioral isolation plus sexual selection against hybrids was 0.960. Our analyses suggest that plumage differences are the main driving force for this strong isolation with reduced hybrid fitness contributing to a lesser degree. The major impact of plumage differences to reproductive isolation is compatible with genomic analyses (Current Biology, 2016, 26, 2313), which showed the largest genetic difference between these phenotypes occurred with plumage genes. These phenotypes have maintained morphological, behavioral, and ecological differences during two centuries of hybridization. Our estimate of reproductive isolation supports recognition of these phenotypes as two species. The decline and extirpation of the Golden-winged Warbler in almost all areas of recent sympatry suggest that continued coexistence of both species will require eco-geographic isolation.