Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress.

Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear3-8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35 years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

Tropical tree growth sensitivity to climate is driven by species intrinsic growth rate and leaf traits.

A better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long-term climate averages (mean climate) drive spatial variations in species' baseline growth rates, whereas deviations from these averages over time (anomalies) can create growth variation around the local baseline. However, the rarity of long-term tree census data spanning climatic gradients has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Furthermore, tree growth sensitivity to climate is likely to vary widely among species, and the ecological strategies underlying these differences remain poorly understood. Here, we utilize an exceptional dataset of 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how multiannual tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species' functional traits mediate these growth responses to climate. We show that anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast-growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both climate means and anomalies. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests and that species traits can provide insights into understanding these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass).

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum's phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments' legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Differences in root phenology and water depletion by an invasive grass explains persistence in a Mediterranean ecosystem.

PREMISE: Flexible phenological responses of invasive plants under climate change may increase their ability to establish and persist. A key aspect of plant phenology is the timing of root production, how it coincides with canopy development and subsequent water-use. The timing of these events within species and across communities could influence the invasion process. We examined above- and belowground phenology of two species in southern California, the native shrub, Adenostoma fasciculatum, and the invasive perennial grass, Ehrharta calycina to investigate relative differences in phenology and water use. METHODS: We used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to track whole-canopy activity across the landscape and sap flux sensors on individual chaparral shrubs to assess differences in aboveground phenology of both species. To determine differences in belowground activity, we used soil moisture sensors, minirhizotron imagery, and stable isotopes. RESULTS: The invasive grass depleted soil moisture earlier in the spring and produced longer roots at multiple depths earlier in the growing season than the native shrub. However, Adenostoma fasciculatum produced longer roots in the top 10 cm of soil profile in May. Aboveground activity of the two species peaked at the same time. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that Ehrharta calycina possessed longer roots earlier in the season suggests that invasive plants may gain a competitive edge over native plants through early activity, while also depleting soil moisture earlier in the season. Depletion of soil moisture earlier by E. calycina suggests that invasive grasses could accelerate the onset of the summer drought in chaparral systems, assuring their persistence following invasion.

Phylogenetic and ecological patterns in nighttime transpiration among five members of the genus Rubus co-occurring in western Oregon.

Nighttime transpiration is a substantial portion of ecosystem water budgets, but few studies compare water use of closely related co-occurring species in a phylogenetic context. Nighttime transpiration can range up to 69% of daytime rates and vary between species, ecosystem, and functional type. We examined leaf-level daytime and nighttime gas exchange of five species of the genus Rubus co-occurring in the Pacific Northwest of western North America in a greenhouse common garden. Contrary to expectations, nighttime transpiration was not correlated to daytime water use. Nighttime transpiration showed pronounced phylogenetic signals, but the proportion of variation explained by different phylogenetic groupings varied across datasets. Leaf osmotic water potential, water potential at turgor loss point, stomatal size, and specific leaf area were correlated with phylogeny but did not readily explain variation in nighttime transpiration. Patterns in interspecific variation as well as a disconnect between rates of daytime and nighttime transpiration suggest that variation in nighttime water use may be at least partly driven by genetic factors independent of those that control daytime water use. Future work with co-occurring congeneric systems is needed to establish the generality of these results and may help determine the mechanism driving interspecific variation in nighttime water use.

A comparison of hydraulic architecture in three similarly sized woody species differing in their maximum potential height.

The physiological mechanisms underlying the short maximum height of shrubs are not understood. One possible explanation is that differences in the hydraulic architecture of shrubs compared with co-occurring taller trees prevent the shrubs from growing taller. To explore this hypothesis, we examined various hydraulic parameters, including vessel lumen diameter, hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism, of three co-occurring species that differed in their maximum potential height. We examined one species of shrub, one short-statured tree and one taller tree. We worked with individuals that were approximately the same age and height, which was near the maximum for the shrub species. A number of variables correlated with the maximum potential height of the species. For example, vessel diameter and vulnerability to embolism both increased while wood density declined with maximum potential height. The difference between the pressure causing 50% reduction in hydraulic conductance in the leaves and the midday leaf water potential (the leaf's hydraulic safety margin) was much larger in the shrub than the other two species. In general, trends were consistent with understory shrubs having a more conservative life history strategy than co-occurring taller species.