Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities. METHODS: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.

Modelling cassava production and pest management under biotic and abiotic constraints.

KEY MESSAGE: We summarise modelling studies of the most economically important cassava diseases and arthropods, highlighting research gaps where modelling can contribute to the better management of these in the areas of surveillance, control, and host-pest dynamics understanding the effects of climate change and future challenges in modelling. For over 30 years, experimental and theoretical studies have sought to better understand the epidemiology of cassava diseases and arthropods that affect production and lead to considerable yield loss, to detect and control them more effectively. In this review, we consider the contribution of modelling studies to that understanding. We summarise studies of the most economically important cassava pests, including cassava mosaic disease, cassava brown streak disease, the cassava mealybug, and the cassava green mite. We focus on conceptual models of system dynamics rather than statistical methods. Through our analysis we identified areas where modelling has contributed and areas where modelling can improve and further contribute. Firstly, we identify research challenges in the modelling developed for the surveillance, detection and control of cassava pests, and propose approaches to overcome these. We then look at the contributions that modelling has accomplished in the understanding of the interaction and dynamics of cassava and its' pests, highlighting success stories and areas where improvement is needed. Thirdly, we look at the possibility that novel modelling applications can achieve to provide insights into the impacts and uncertainties of climate change. Finally, we identify research gaps, challenges, and opportunities where modelling can develop and contribute for the management of cassava pests, highlighting the recent advances in understanding molecular mechanisms of plant defence.

The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027-2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. RESULTS: By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69-72) and 72% (UI: 70-74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30-32) and 44% (UI: 42-47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9-1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

Antimicrobial resistance and COVID-19: Intersections and implications.

Before the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was among the top priorities for global public health. Already a complex challenge, AMR now needs to be addressed in a changing healthcare landscape. Here, we analyse how changes due to COVID-19 in terms of antimicrobial usage, infection prevention, and health systems affect the emergence, transmission, and burden of AMR. Increased hand hygiene, decreased international travel, and decreased elective hospital procedures may reduce AMR pathogen selection and spread in the short term. However, the opposite effects may be seen if antibiotics are more widely used as standard healthcare pathways break down. Over 6 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the dynamics of AMR remain uncertain. We call for the AMR community to keep a global perspective while designing finely tuned surveillance and research to continue to improve our preparedness and response to these intersecting public health challenges.

Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease.

Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8-32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-clear within 10 years of infection, and 73.1% (64.6-81.7%) over a lifetime. The lifetime risk of TB disease was 17.0% (10.9-22.5%), compared to 12.6% (10.1-15.0%) assuming lifelong infection. The population at risk of TB disease in India, China and Japan was 35-80% (95% UI) smaller in the self-clearance scenario. Conclusions: the population with a viable Mtb infection may be markedly smaller than generally assumed, with such individuals at greater risk of TB disease. The ability to identify these individuals could dramatically improve the targeting of preventive programmes and inform TB vaccine development, bringing TB elimination within reach of feasibility.

Ongoing challenges to understanding multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in children versus adults.

Previous analyses suggest that children with tuberculosis (TB) are no more or no less likely to have multidrug (MDR)- or rifampicin-resistant (RR)-TB than adults. However, the availability of new data, particularly for high MDR/RR-TB burden countries, suggest updates of country-specific estimates are warranted.We used data from population-representative surveys and surveillance collected between 2000 and 2018 to compare the odds ratio of MDR/RR-TB among children (aged <15 years) with TB, compared to the odds of MDR/RR-TB among adults (aged ≥15 years) with TB.In most settings (45 out of 55 countries), and globally as a whole, there is no evidence that age is associated with odds of MDR/RR-TB. However, in some settings, such as former Soviet Union countries in general, and Georgia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, as well as Peru, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age ≥15 years. Meanwhile, in Western Europe in general, and the United Kingdom, Poland, Finland and Luxembourg in particular, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age <15 years. 16 countries had sufficient data to compare over time between 2000-2011 and 2012-2018, with evidence for decreases in the odds ratio in children compared to adults in Germany, Kazakhstan and the United States of America.Our results support findings that in most settings a child with TB is as likely as an adult with TB to have MDR/RR-TB. However, setting-specific heterogeneity requires further investigation. Furthermore, the odds ratio for MDR/RR-TB in children compared to adults is generally either stable or decreasing. There are important gaps in detection, recording and reporting of drug resistance among paediatric TB cases, limiting our understanding of transmission risks and measures needed to combat the global TB epidemic.

The risk of multidrug- or rifampicin-resistance in males versus females with tuberculosis.

Males are at an increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease compared to females. Additionally, several risk factors for multidrug-resistant (MDR) or rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB disease are more common in males, hence male TB patients may have a higher relative risk of MDR/RR-TB than female TB patients.We used sex-disaggregated data of TB patients reported to the World Health Organization for 106 countries to calculate male-to-female (M:F) risk ratios of having MDR/RR-TB.There was no evidence of either sex being more at risk of MDR/RR-TB in 81% (86 out of 106) of countries, with an overall random-effects weighted M:F risk ratio of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97-1.11). In 12% (13 out of 106) of countries there was evidence that males were more at risk, while in 7% (seven out of 106), females were more at risk. The risk of having TB that was MDR/RR increased for males compared to females as MDR/RR-TB incidence increased, and was higher for males than females in the former Soviet Union, where the risk ratio was 1.16 (1.06-1.28). Conversely, the risk increased for females compared to males as gross domestic product purchase power parity increased, and was higher for females than males in countries where the majority of TB burden was found in the foreign-born population, where the risk ratio was 0.84 (0.75-0.94).In general, the risk of MDR/RR-TB, among those with TB, is the same for males as for females. However, males in higher MDR/RR-TB burden countries, particularly the former Soviet Union, face an increased risk that their infection is MDR/RR-TB, highlighting the need for a sex-differentiated approach to TB case-finding and care.

Global burden of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: trends and estimates based on mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: To end the global tuberculosis epidemic, latent tuberculosis infection needs to be addressed. All standard treatments for latent tuberculosis contain drugs to which multidrug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis is resistant. We aimed to estimate the global burden of multidrug-resistant latent tuberculosis infection to inform tuberculosis elimination policy. METHODS: By fitting a flexible statistical model to tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance and survey data collated by WHO, we estimated national trends in the proportion of new tuberculosis cases that were caused by MDR strains. We used these data as a proxy for the proportion of new infections caused by MDR M tuberculosis and multiplied trends in annual risk of infection from previous estimates of the burden of latent tuberculosis to generate trends in the annual risk of infection with MDR M tuberculosis. These estimates were used in a cohort model to estimate changes in the global and national prevalence of latent infection with MDR M tuberculosis. We also estimated recent infection levels (ie, in 2013 and 2014) and made predictions for the future burden of MDR tuberculosis in 2035 and 2050. FINDINGS: 19·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 16·4 million-21·7 million) people were latently infected with MDR tuberculosis in 2014-a global prevalence of 0·3% (95% UI 0·2-0·3). MDR strains accounted for 1·2% (95% UI 1·0-1·4) of the total latent tuberculosis burden overall, but for 2·9% (95% UI 2·6-3·1) of the burden among children younger than 15 years (risk ratio for those younger than 15 years vs those aged 15 years or older 2·65 [95% UI 2·11-3·25]). Recent latent infection with MDR M tuberculosis meant that 1·9 million (95% UI 1·7 million-2·3 million) people globally were at high risk of active MDR tuberculosis in 2015. INTERPRETATION: We estimate that three in every 1000 people globally carry latent MDR tuberculosis infection, and prevalence is around ten times higher among those younger than 15 years. If current trends continue, the proportion of latent tuberculosis caused by MDR strains will increase, which will pose serious challenges for management of latent tuberculosis-a cornerstone of tuberculosis elimination strategies. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and European Research Council.

Parasite species richness and its effect on persistence in food webs.

Parasitic species are likely to have a significant effect on the stability of ecosystems. However, little is known of the nature of this effect, with debate over whether it is positive or negative. In previous work it was observed that a mixture of interaction types increases the local stability of a network. Following this, we investigate the consequences for species persistence of replacing host species with parasitic species. We consider systems with varying mixtures of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions, showing that the effect of parasitic interactions on a system depends on both the interaction types present and the levels of parasitism considered. Higher levels of mutualism make a system vulnerable to destabilisation on the addition of parasite species. However, for systems with antagonistic interactions, persistence in the system decreases primarily due to the failure of parasite species to persist. This increases with increasing proportions of parasite species, leading to a peak number of parasite species able to persist. Increasing parasite species richness does not have as significant an effect on host species richness as we might expect; although parasites have an important role to play in ecological networks, their effect on persistence is seen primarily through their own self-limitation.

Network dynamics contribute to structure: nestedness in mutualistic networks.

Both ecological and evolutionary timescales are of importance when considering an ecological system; population dynamics affect the evolution of species traits, and vice versa. Recently, these two timescales have been used to explain structural patterns in host-parasite networks, where the evolution of the manner in which species balance the use of their resources in interactions with each other was examined.One of these patterns was nestedness, in which the set of parasite species within a particular host forms a subset of those within a more species-rich host. Patterns of both nestedness and anti-nestedness have been observed significantly more often than expected due to chance in host-parasite networks. In contrast, mutualistic networks tend to display a significant degree of nestedness, but are rarely anti-nested. Within networks with different interaction types, therefore, there appears to be a feature promoting non-random structural patterns, such as nestedness and anti-nestedness, depending on the interaction types involved.Here, we invoke the co-evolution of species trait-values when allocating resources to interactions to explain the structural pattern of nestedness in a mutualistic community. We look at a bipartite, multi-species system, in which the strength of an interaction between two species is determined by the resources that each species invests in that relationship. We then analyze the evolution of these interactions using adaptive dynamics.We found that the evolution of these interactions, reflecting the trade-off of resources, could be used to accurately predict that nestedness occurs significantly more often than expect due to chance alone in a mutualistic network. This complements previous results applying the same concept to an antagonistic network. We conclude that population dynamics and resource trade-offs could be important promoters of structural patterns in ecological networks of different types.

Trophic structure, stability, and parasite persistence threshold in food webs.

Food web structure of free-living species is an important determinant of parasite species richness. Downwardly asymmetric predator-prey interactions (where there are more prey than predator species) have been shown, both theoretically and empirically, to harbour more trophically transmitted parasite species than expected due to chance. Here, we demonstrate that this could be due to the increase in the basic reproductive ratio that the addition of non-host prey species to a system creates. However, we note that the basic reproductive ratio is only increased by those prey that stabilise oscillations in a predator-prey system, and is decreased by those that do not.