The contribution of agricultural insecticide use to increasing insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors.

The fight against malaria is increasingly threatened by failures in vector control due to growing insecticide resistance. This review examines the recent primary research that addresses the putative relationship between agricultural insecticide use and trends in insecticide resistance. To do so, descriptive evidence offered by the new research was categorized, and additional factors that impact the relationship between agricultural insecticide use and observed insecticide resistance in malaria vectors were identified. In 23 of the 25 relevant recent publications from across Africa, higher resistance in mosquito populations was associated with agricultural insecticide use. This association appears to be affected by crop type, farm pest management strategy and urban development.

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND: Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. METHODS: In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. RESULTS: We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission.

Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review.

Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms "influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)", excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.

Host immune constraints on malaria transmission: insights from population biology of within-host parasites.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium infections trigger complex immune reactions from their hosts against several life stages of the parasite, including gametocytes. These immune responses are highly variable, depending on age, genetics, and exposure history of the host as well as species and strain of parasite. Although the effects of host antibodies that act against gamete stages in the mosquito (due to uptake in the blood meal) are well documented, the effects of host immunity upon within-host gametocytes are not as well understood. This report consists of a theoretical population biology-based analysis to determine constraints that host immunity impose upon gametocyte population growth. The details of the mathematical models used for the analysis were guided by published reports of clinical and animal studies, incorporated plausible modalities of immune reactions to parasites, and were tailored to the life cycl es of the two most widespread human malaria pathogens, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. RESULTS: For the same ability to bind and clear a target, the model simulations suggest that an antibody attacking immature gametocytes would tend to lower the overall density of transmissible mature gametocytes more than an antibody attacking the mature forms directly. Transmission of P. falciparum would be especially vulnerable to complete blocking by antibodies to its immature forms since its gametocytes take much longer to reach maturity than those of P. vivax. On the other hand, antibodies attacking the mature gametocytes directly would reduce the time the mature forms can linger in the host. Simulation results also suggest that varying the standard deviation in the time necessary for individual asexual parasites to develop and produce schizonts can affect the efficiency of production of transmissible gametocytes. CONCLUSIONS: If mature gametocyte density determines the probability of transmission, both Plasmodium species, but especially P. falciparum, could bolster this probability through evasion or suppression of host immune responses against the immature gametocytes. However, if the long term lingering of mature gametocytes at low density in the host is also important to ensure transmission, then evasion or suppression of antibodies against the mature stages would bolster probability of transmission as well.

Foetal haemoglobin and the dynamics of paediatric malaria.

BACKGROUND: Although 80% of malaria occurs in children under five years of age, infants under six months of age are known to have low rates of infection and disease. It is not clear why this youngest age group is protected; possible factors include maternal antibodies, unique nutrition (breast milk), and the presence of foetal haemoglobin (HbF). This work aims to gain insight into possible mechanisms of protection, and suggest pathways for focused empirical work, by modelling a range of possible effects of foetal haemoglobin and other red blood cell (RBC) developmental changes on parasite dynamics in infants. METHODS: A set of ordinary differential equations was created to investigate the leading hypotheses about the possible protective mechanisms of HbF-containing red blood cells, in particular whether HbF suppresses parasite population growth because parasite multiplication in individual RBCs is lower, slower or absent. The model also incorporated the intrinsic changes in blood volume and haematocrit that occur with age, and the possibility of parasite affinities for HbF-containing RBCs or reticulocytes. RESULTS: The model identified several sets of conditions in which the infant remained protected, or displayed a much slower growth of parasitaemia in the first few months of life, without any intervening immune response. The most protective of the hypothesized mechanisms would be the inhibition of schizont division in foetal RBCs so that fewer merozoites are produced. The model showed that a parasite preference for HbF-containing RBCs increases protective effects for the host, while a preference for reticulocytes has little effect. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this simple model of haematological changes in infants and their effects on Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics emphasize the likely importance of HbF and RBC number as an explanatory factor in paediatric malaria, and suggest a framework for organizing related empirical research.

Ross, macdonald, and a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens.

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various "Ross-Macdonald" mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955-1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention.

Developmental allometry and paediatric malaria.

WHO estimates that 80% of mortality due to malaria occurs among infants and young children. Though it has long been established that malaria disproportionately affects children under age five, our understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms for this distribution remains incomplete. Many studies use age as an indicator of exposure, but age may affect malaria burden independently of previous exposure. Not only does the severity of malaria infection change with age, but the clinical manifestation of disease does as well: younger children are more likely to suffer severe anaemia, while older children are more likely to develop cerebral malaria. Intensity of transmission and acquired immunity are important determinants of this age variation, but age differences remain consistent over varying transmission levels. Thus, age differences in clinical presentation may involve inherent age-related factors as well as still-undiscovered facets of acquired immunity, perhaps including the rates at which relevant aspects of immunity are acquired. The concept of "allometry" - the relative growth of a part in relation to that of an entire organism or to a standard - has not previously been applied in the context of malaria infection. However, because malaria affects a number of organs and cells, including the liver, red blood cells, white blood cells, and spleen, which may intrinsically develop at rates partly independent of each other and of a child's overall size, developmental allometry may influence the course and consequences of malaria infection. Here, scattered items of evidence have been collected from a variety of disciplines, aiming to suggest possible research paths for investigating exposure-independent age differences affecting clinical outcomes of malaria infection.

Nigeria Anopheles vector database: an overview of 100 years' research.

Anopheles mosquitoes are important vectors of malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF), which are major public health diseases in Nigeria. Malaria is caused by infection with a protozoan parasite of the genus Plasmodium and LF by the parasitic worm Wuchereria bancrofti. Updating our knowledge of the Anopheles species is vital in planning and implementing evidence based vector control programs. To present a comprehensive report on the spatial distribution and composition of these vectors, all published data available were collated into a database. Details recorded for each source were the locality, latitude/longitude, time/period of study, species, abundance, sampling/collection methods, morphological and molecular species identification methods, insecticide resistance status, including evidence of the kdr allele, and P. falciparum sporozoite rate and W. bancrofti microfilaria prevalence. This collation resulted in a total of 110 publications, encompassing 484,747 Anopheles mosquitoes in 632 spatially unique descriptions at 142 georeferenced locations being identified across Nigeria from 1900 to 2010. Overall, the highest number of vector species reported included An. gambiae complex (65.2%), An. funestus complex (17.3%), An. gambiae s.s. (6.5%). An. arabiensis (5.0%) and An. funestus s.s. (2.5%), with the molecular forms An. gambiae M and S identified at 120 locations. A variety of sampling/collection and species identification methods were used with an increase in molecular techniques in recent decades. Insecticide resistance to pyrethroids and organochlorines was found in the main Anopheles species across 45 locations. Presence of P. falciparum and W. bancrofti varied between species with the highest sporozoite rates found in An. gambiae s.s, An. funestus s.s. and An. moucheti, and the highest microfilaria prevalence in An. gambiae s.l., An. arabiensis, and An. gambiae s.s. This comprehensive geo-referenced database provides an essential baseline on Anopheles vectors and will be an important resource for malaria and LF vector control programmes in Nigeria.

Community and facility-level engagement in planning and budgeting for the government health sector--a district perspective from Kenya.

Health systems reform processes have increasingly recognized the essential contribution of communities to the success of health programs and development activities in general. Here we examine the experience from Kilifi district in Kenya of implementing annual health sector planning guidelines that included community participation in problem identification, priority setting, and planning. We describe challenges in the implementation of national planning guidelines, how these were met, and how they influenced final plans and budgets. The broad-based community engagement envisaged in the guidelines did not take place due to the delay in roll out of the Ministry of Health-trained community health workers. Instead, community engagement was conducted through facility management committees, though in a minority of facilities, even such committees were not involved. Some overlap was found in the priorities highlighted by facility staff, committee members and national indicators, but there were also many additional issues raised by committee members and not by other groups. The engagement of the community through committees influenced target and priority setting, but the emphasis on national health indicators left many local priorities unaddressed by the final work plans. Moreover, it appears that the final impact on budgets allocated at district and facility level was limited. The experience in Kilifi highlights the feasibility of engaging the community in the health planning process, and the challenges of ensuring that this engagement feeds into consolidated plans and future implementation.

Prospective strategies to delay the evolution of anti-malarial drug resistance: weighing the uncertainty.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of drug resistance in malaria parasites highlights a need to identify and evaluate strategies that could extend the useful therapeutic life of anti-malarial drugs. Such strategies are deployed to best effect before resistance has emerged, under conditions of great uncertainty. METHODS: Here, the emergence and spread of resistance was modelled using a hybrid framework to evaluate prospective strategies, estimate the time to drug failure, and weigh uncertainty. The waiting time to appearance was estimated as the product of low mutation rates, drug pressure, and parasite population sizes during treatment. Stochastic persistence and the waiting time to establishment were simulated as an evolving branching process. The subsequent spread of resistance was simulated in simple epidemiological models. RESULTS: Using this framework, the waiting time to the failure of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) for malaria was estimated, and a policy of multiple first-line therapies (MFTs) was evaluated. The models quantify the effects of reducing drug pressure in delaying appearance, reducing the chances of establishment, and slowing spread. By using two first-line therapies in a population, it is possible to reduce drug pressure while still treating the full complement of cases. CONCLUSIONS: At a global scale, because of uncertainty about the time to the emergence of ACT resistance, there was a strong case for MFTs to guard against early failure. Our study recommends developing operationally feasible strategies for implementing MFTs, such as distributing different ACTs at the clinic and for home-based care, or formulating different ACTs for children and adults.

Using the entomological inoculation rate to assess the impact of vector control on malaria parasite transmission and elimination.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have shown that annual entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) must be reduced to less than one to substantially reduce the prevalence of malaria infection. In this study, EIR values were used to quantify the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and source reduction (SR) on malaria transmission. The analysis of EIR was extended through determining whether available vector control tools can ultimately eradicate malaria. METHOD: The analysis is based primarily on a review of all controlled studies that used ITN, IRS, and/or SR and reported their effects on the EIR. To compare EIRs between studies, the percent difference in EIR between the intervention and control groups was calculated. RESULTS: Eight vector control intervention studies that measured EIR were found: four ITN studies, one IRS study, one SR study, and two studies with separate ITN and IRS intervention groups. In both the Tanzania study and the Solomon Islands study, one community received ITNs and one received IRS. In the second year of the Tanzania study, EIR was 90% lower in the ITN community and 93% lower in the IRS community, relative to the community without intervention; the ITN and IRS effects were not significantly different. In contrast, in the Solomon Islands study, EIR was 94% lower in the ITN community and 56% lower in the IRS community. The one SR study, in Dar es Salaam, reported a lower EIR reduction (47%) than the ITN and IRS studies. All of these vector control interventions reduced EIR, but none reduced it to zero. CONCLUSION: These studies indicate that current vector control methods alone cannot ultimately eradicate malaria because no intervention sustained an annual EIR less than one. While researchers develop new tools, integrated vector management may make the greatest impact on malaria transmission. There are many gaps in the entomological malaria literature and recommendations for future research are provided.

Rational spatio-temporal strategies for controlling a Chagas disease vector in urban environments.

The rational design of interventions is critical to controlling communicable diseases, especially in urban environments. In the case of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans, successful control is stymied by the return of the insect after the effectiveness of the insecticide wanes. Here, we adapt a genetic algorithm, originally developed for the travelling salesman problem, to improve the spatio-temporal design of insecticide campaigns against T. infestans, in a complex urban environment. We find a strategy that reduces the expected instances of vector return 34-fold compared with the current strategy of sequential insecticide application to spatially contiguous communities. The relative success of alternative control strategies depends upon the duration of the effectiveness of the insecticide, and it shows chaotic fluctuations in response to unforeseen delays in a control campaign. We use simplified models to analyse the outcomes of qualitatively different spatio-temporal strategies. Our results provide a detailed procedure to improve control efforts for an urban Chagas disease vector, as well as general guidelines for improving the design of interventions against other disease agents in complex environments.

Environmental factors associated with the malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus mosquito species complexes are the primary vectors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand the environmental factors influencing these species, the abundance, distribution and transmission data from a south-eastern Kenyan study were retrospectively analysed, and the climate, vegetation and elevation data in key locations compared. METHODS: Thirty villages in Malindi, Kilifi and Kwale Districts with data on An. gambiae sensu strict, Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus entomological inoculation rates (EIRs), were used as focal points for spatial and environmental analyses. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's I statistic, and for the clustering of high or low EIR values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Environmental data were derived from remote-sensed satellite sources of precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and elevation. The relationship between transmission and environmental measures was examined using bivariate correlations, and by comparing environmental means between locations of high and low clustering using the Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: Spatial analyses indicated positive autocorrelation of An. arabiensis and An. funestus transmission, but not of An. gambiae s.s., which was found to be widespread across the study region. The spatial clustering of high EIR values for An. arabiensis was confined to the lowland areas of Malindi, and for An. funestus to the southern districts of Kilifi and Kwale. Overall, An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis had similar spatial and environmental trends, with higher transmission associated with higher precipitation, but lower temperature, humidity and NDVI measures than those locations with lower transmission by these species and/or in locations where transmission by An. funestus was high. Statistical comparisons indicated that precipitation and temperatures were significantly different between the An. arabiensis and An. funestus high and low transmission locations. CONCLUSION: These finding suggest that the abundance, distribution and malaria transmission of different malaria vectors are driven by different environmental factors. A better understanding of the specific ecological parameters of each malaria mosquito species will help define their current distributions, and how they may currently and prospectively be affected by climate change, interventions and other factors.

The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Perú: 1994-2006.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is the direct cause of approximately one million deaths worldwide each year, though it is both preventable and curable. Increasing the understanding of the transmission dynamics of falciparum and vivax malaria and their relationship could suggest improvements for malaria control efforts. Here the weekly number of malaria cases due to Plasmodium falciparum (1994-2006) and Plasmodium vivax (1999-2006) in Perú at different spatial scales in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data are analysed. METHODS: Malaria periodicity patterns were analysed through wavelet spectral analysis, studied patterns of persistence as a function of community size and assessed spatial heterogeneity via the Lorenz curve and the summary Gini index. RESULTS: Wavelet time series analyses identified annual cycles in the incidence of both malaria species as the dominant pattern. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was observed across jungle, mountain and coastal regions with slightly higher levels of spatial heterogeneity for P. vivax than P. falciparum. While the incidence of P. falciparum has been declining in recent years across geographic regions, P. vivax incidence has remained relatively steady in jungle and mountain regions with a slight decline in coastal regions. Factors that may be contributing to this decline are discussed. The time series of both malaria species were significantly synchronized in coastal (rho = 0.9, P < 0.0001) and jungle regions (rho = 0.76, P < 0.0001) but not in mountain regions. Community size was significantly associated with malaria persistence due to both species in jungle regions, but not in coastal and mountain regions. CONCLUSION: Overall, findings highlight the importance of highly refined spatial and temporal data on malaria incidence together with demographic and geographic information in improving the understanding of malaria persistence patterns associated with multiple malaria species in human populations, impact of interventions, detection of heterogeneity and generation of hypotheses.

Spatial patterns in discordant diagnostic test results for Chagas disease: links to transmission hotspots.

Diagnosis of Chagas disease is hindered by discordance between screening and confirmatory test results for Trypanosoma cruzi infection. In periurban Arequipa, Peru, spatial analysis revealed that individuals with discordant test results are spatially clustered in hotspots of T. cruzi transmission, suggesting that discordant results likely represent true infections in this setting.

The multiplicity of malaria transmission: a review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a serious tropical disease that causes more than one million deaths each year, most of them in Africa. It is transmitted by a range of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of disease varies greatly across the continent. The "entomological inoculation rate" is the commonly-used measure of the intensity of malaria transmission, yet the methods used are currently not standardized, nor do they take the ecological, demographic, and socioeconomic differences across populations into account. To better understand the multiplicity of malaria transmission, this study examines the distribution of transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa, reviews the range of methods used, and explores ecological parameters in selected locations. It builds on an extensive geo-referenced database and uses geographical information systems to highlight transmission patterns, knowledge gaps, trends and changes in methodologies over time, and key differences between land use, population density, climate, and the main mosquito species. The aim is to improve the methods of measuring malaria transmission, to help develop the way forward so that we can better assess the impact of the large-scale intervention programmes, and rapid demographic and environmental change taking place across Africa.

Impregnated netting slows infestation by Triatoma infestans.

We used sentinel animal enclosures to measure the rate of infestation by the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans, in an urban community of Arequipa, Peru, and to evaluate the effect of deltamethrin-impregnated netting on that rate. Impregnated netting decreased the rate of infestation of sentinel enclosures (rate ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.38; P < 0.001), controlling for the density of surrounding vector populations and the distance of these to the sentinel enclosures. Most migrant insects were early-stage nymphs, which are less likely to carry the parasitic agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi. Spread of the vector in the city therefore likely precedes spread of the parasite. Netting was particularly effective against adult insects and late-stage nymphs; taking into account population structure, netting decreased the reproductive value of migrant populations from 443.6 to 40.5. Impregnated netting can slow the spread of T. infestans and is a potentially valuable tool in the control of Chagas disease.

Host control of malaria infections: constraints on immune and erythropoeitic response kinetics.

The two main agents of human malaria, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, can induce severe anemia and provoke strong, complex immune reactions. Which dynamical behaviors of host immune and erythropoietic responses would foster control of infection, and which would lead to runaway parasitemia and/or severe anemia? To answer these questions, we developed differential equation models of interacting parasite and red blood cell (RBC) populations modulated by host immune and erythropoietic responses. The model immune responses incorporate both a rapidly responding innate component and a slower-responding, long-term antibody component, with several parasite developmental stages considered as targets for each type of immune response. We found that simulated infections with the highest parasitemia tended to be those with ineffective innate immunity even if antibodies were present. We also compared infections with dyserythropoiesis (reduced RBC production during infection) to those with compensatory erythropoiesis (boosted RBC production) or a fixed basal RBC production rate. Dyserythropoiesis tended to reduce parasitemia slightly but at a cost to the host of aggravating anemia. On the other hand, compensatory erythropoiesis tended to reduce the severity of anemia but with enhanced parasitemia if the innate response was ineffective. For both parasite species, sharp transitions between the schizont and the merozoite stages of development (i.e., with standard deviation in intra-RBC development time