Global patterns in price elasticities of sugar-sweetened beverage intake and potential effectiveness of tax policy: a cross-sectional study of 164 countries by sex, age and global-income decile.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify global relationships between sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake and prices and examine the potential effectiveness of tax policy. DESIGN: SSB intake data by country, age and sex from the Global Dietary Database were combined with gross domestic product and price data from the World Bank. Intake responsiveness to income and prices was estimated accounting for national income, age and sex differences. SETTING: 164 countries. POPULATION: Full adult population in each country. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A consumer demand modelling framework was used to estimate the relationship between SSB intake and prices and derive own-price elasticities (measures of percentage changes in intake from a 1% price change) globally by age and sex. We simulated how a 20% tax would impact SSB intake globally. Tax policy outcomes were examined across countries by global income decile for representative age and sex subgroups. RESULTS: Own-price responsiveness was highest in lowest income countries, ranging from -0.70 (p<0.100) for women, age 50, to -1.91 (p<0.001) for men, age 80. In the highest income countries, responsiveness was as high as -0.49 (p<0.001) (men, age 20), but was mostly insignificant for older adults. Overall, elasticities were strongest (more negative) at the youngest and oldest age groups, and mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults, particularly in middle-income and high-income countries. Sex differences were mostly negligible. Potential intake reductions from a 20% tax in lowest income countries ranged from 14.5% (95% CI: 29.5%, -0.4%) in women, 35 ≤ age < 60, to 24.9% (44.4%, 5.3%) in men, age ≥60. Intake reductions decreased with country income overall, and were mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings estimate the global price-responsiveness of SSB intake by age and sex, informing ongoing policy discussions on potential effects of taxes.

How income and food prices influence global dietary intakes by age and sex: evidence from 164 countries.

BACKGROUND: While income and prices are key drivers of dietary choices, how their influence varies by food category, nation, and demographics is not well established. Based on intake data for 164 countries and 11 food categories, we examined how income and food prices relate to food intake globally, including by world region, age, and sex. METHODS: We used 2010 intake data from the Global Dietary Database, the first database of consumption estimates for major food categories by country, age, and sex. We combined these data with national per capita GDP and food price data. We estimated intake responsiveness to income and prices for each food category, accounting for differences by national income, world region, age, and sex. RESULTS: We identified several differences in intake responsiveness. For example, rising income was estimated to increase milk intake most strongly in Sub-Saharan Africa and fruit intake most strongly among older women globally. Comparing our intake results to previous findings based on expenditure data, we found more goods that exhibited declining intake in response to rising incomes, fewer significant relationships for a number of food categories, particularly for higher income regions, and whereas in prior studies, elasticities mostly decrease with national income, we identified food categories where this was not the case. CONCLUSION: The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among income, prices, and food intakes. Policymakers should consider the price and income elasticities of certain foods, as well as the role of demographics within and across countries, as they address global nutrition and health challenges.