Consequences of prairie fragmentation on the progeny sex ratio of a gynodioecious species, Lobelia spicata (Campanulaceae).

Habitat fragmentation of prairie ecosystems has resulted in increased isolation and decreased size of plant populations. In large populations, frequency-dependent selection is expected to maintain genetic diversity of sex determining factors associated with gynodioecy, that is, nuclear restorer genes that reverse cytoplasmic male sterility (nucleocytoplasmic gynodioecy). However, genetic drift will have a greater influence on small isolated populations that result from habitat fragmentation. The genetic model for nucleocytoplasmic gynodioecy implies that the proportion of female progeny produced by hermaphroditic and female plants will show more extreme differences in populations with reduced allelic diversity, and that restoration of male function will increase with inbreeding. We investigated potential impacts of effects resulting from reduced population sizes by comparison of progeny sex ratios produced by female and hermaphroditic plants in small and large populations of the gynodioecious prairie species, Lobelia spicata. A four-way contingency analysis of the impact of population size, population sex ratio, and maternal gender on progeny sex ratios showed that progeny sex ratios of hermaphroditic plants were strongly influenced by population size, whereas progeny sex ratios of female plants were strongly influenced by population sex ratio. Further, analysis of variation in progeny-type distribution indicated decreased restoration and increased loss of male function in smaller and isolated populations. These results are consistent with reduced allelic diversity or low allelic frequency at restorer loci in small and isolated populations. The consequent decrease in male function has the potential to impede seed production in these fragmented prairies.

Measuring the fate of plant diversity: towards a foundation for future monitoring and opportunities for urgent action.

Vascular plants are often considered to be among the better known large groups of organisms, but gaps in the available baseline data are extensive, and recent estimates of total known (described) seed plant species range from 200000 to 422000. Of these, global assessments of conservation status using International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories and criteria are available for only approximately 10000 species. In response to recommendations from the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to develop biodiversity indicators based on changes in the status of threatened species, and trends in the abundance and distribution of selected species, we examine how existing data, in combination with limited new data collection, can be used to maximum effect. We argue that future work should produce Red List Indices based on a representative subset of plant species so that the limited resources currently available are directed towards redressing taxonomic and geographical biases apparent in existing datasets. Sampling the data held in the world's major herbaria, in combination with Geographical Information Systems techniques, can produce preliminary conservation assessments and help to direct selective survey work using existing field networks to verify distributions and gather population data. Such data can also be used to backcast threats and potential distributions through time. We outline an approach that could result in: (i) preliminary assessments of the conservation status of tens of thousands of species not previously assessed, (ii) significant enhancements in the coverage and representation of plant species on the IUCN Red List, and (iii) repeat and/or retrospective assessments for a significant proportion of these. This would result in more robust Sampled Red List Indices that can be defended as more representative of plant diversity as a whole; and eventually, comprehensive assessments at species level for one or more major families of angiosperms. The combined results would allow scientifically defensible generalizations about the current status of plant diversity by 2010 as well as tentative comments on trends. Together with other efforts already underway, this approach would establish a firmer basis for ongoing monitoring of the status of plant diversity beyond 2010 and a basis for comparison with the trend data available for vertebrates.

Selection on floral characters in natural Spanish populations of Silene latifolia.

In insect-pollinated plants, floral characters are expected to play an important role in paternal and maternal reproductive success. Bateman's principle states that male reproductive success increases with more mating opportunities, while female reproductive success is limited by the amount of resources available to produce progeny, thus there should be greater selection on male floral characters than on female. In the case of the dioecious plant Silene latifolia, floral characters are likely to be influenced by its association within its native European range with moths of the genus Hadena, which serve as both pollinators and seed predators. The present study addresses relationships between male and female reproductive success, spatial location and floral characters (corolla, calyx and claw) over a 2-year period in two Spanish populations of S. latifolia in the presence of Hadena moths. A maximum likelihood paternity analysis using genetic variation at six allozyme markers showed heterogeneity in male reproductive success. There was much less variation in female reproductive success. When this analysis was extended to include interplant distance as a causal factor underlying variation in male success, we found that successful pollination tended to be limited to nearby females, in accordance with exponential decay of pollen dispersal with increasing distance. When the paternity analysis included floral characters as a causal factor underlying variation in male success, our data showed little evidence for directional selection, but there was stabilizing selection in one of the two years for calyx diameter. Selection on female characters varied widely between sites and years, in most of the site/year combinations there was little selection on female floral characters; however, in one site/year there was evidence for selection on all three floral characters. We conclude that pollinators visit flowers that are close together, and that while floral characters are important for the attraction of pollinators, larger flowers do not necessarily attract more pollinators at all sites and that variation among sites and years makes difficult any conclusions about the long-term importance of the predictions suggested by Bateman's principle.

Using empirical data to model transgene dispersal.

One element of the current public debate about genetically modified crops is that gene flow from transgenic cultivars into surrounding weed populations will lead to more problematic weeds, particularly for traits such as herbicide resistance. Evolutionary biologists can inform this debate by providing accurate estimates of gene flow potential and subsequent ecological performance of resulting hybrids. We develop a model for gene flow incorporating exponential distance and directional effects to be applied to windpollinated species. This model is applied to previously published data on gene flow in experimental plots of Agrostis stolonifera L. (creeping bentgrass), which assessed gene flow from transgenic plants resistant to the herbicide glufosinate to surrounding non-transgenic plants. Our results show that although pollen dispersal can be limited in some sites, it may be extensive in others, depending on local conditions such as exposure to wind. Thus, hybridization under field conditions is likely to occur. Given the nature of the herbicide resistance trait, we regard this trait as unlikely to persist in the absence of herbicide, and suggest that the ecological consequences of such gene flow are likely to be minimal.

Genetic analysis of male reproductive contributions in Chamaelirium luteum (L.) gray (Liliaceae).

Genealogical analysis is a powerful tool for analysis of reproductive performance in both natural and captive populations, but assignment of paternity has always been a stumbling block for this sort of work. Statistical methods for determining paternity have undergone several phases of development, ranging from straightforward genetic exclusion to assignment of paternity based on genetic likelihood criteria. In the present study, we present a genetic likelihood-based iterative procedure for fractional allocation of paternity within a progeny pool and apply this method to a population of Chamaelirium luteum, a dioecious member of the Liliaceae. Results from this analysis clearly demonstrate that different males make unequal contributions to the overall progeny pool, with many males contributing essentially nothing to the next generation. Furthermore, the distribution of paternal success among males shows a highly significant departure from (Poisson) randomness. The results from the present analysis were compared with earlier results obtained from the same data set, using likelihood-based categorical paternity assignments. The general biological pattern revealed by the two analyses is the same, but the estimates of reproductive success are only modestly (though significantly) correlated. The iterative procedure makes more complete use of the data and generates a more sharply resolved distribution of male reproductive success.

Determination of ploidy level and nuclear DNA content in blueberry by flow cytometry.

The technique of DNA flow cytometry was used to study variation in DNA content among different ploidy levels, as well as among diploid species, of Vaccinium section Cyanococcus. In a sample of plants of varying ploidy level, the relative fluorescence intensity (RFI) of nuclei stained with propidium iodide was a function of the number of chromosome sets (x), as represented by the linear equation RFI=3.7x-2.3 (r(2)=95%). The data indicated that DNA flow cytometry could be useful for the determination of ploidy level at the seedling stage in blueberry. They also suggest that "conventional polyploid evolution" has occurred in this section of the genus Vaccinium with an increase in nuclear DNA content concurrent with the increase in chromosome number. The nuclear DNA content of diploid species of Vaccinium section Cyanococcus was estimated from the relationship of the observed RFI to an internal known DNA standard (trout red blood cells). A nested analysis of variance indicated significant variation among species, as well as among populations within species, in nuclear DNA content, although this variation was small compared to the variation among ploidy levels. The variation in nuclear DNA content corresponded to the phylogenetic relationships among species determined from previous studies.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Parental and sib likelihoods in genealogy reconstruction.

Estimation of genealogical relationships from genetic data provides an approach to answering many questions of population biology. In this estimation problem, previous work has shown that bilateral relatives such as full sibs may be more likely parents than the true parent individuals. This paper investigates the source of this paradox, and the circumstances under which it may arise. Alternative approaches to inferring parentage are proposed; these involve analysis of the distributions of log-likelihood statistics and of the bivariate distribution of sib and parent log-likelihoods. A Bayesian approach may also be superposed on the likelihood analysis, enabling any prior knowledge of the population to be incorporated.