Predictors of clinical progression in HIV-1-infected adults initiating combination antiretroviral therapy with advanced disease in the Asia-Pacific region: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database.

The majority of HIV-infected patients in developing countries commences combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with advanced disease. We examined predictors of disease progression in patients initiating cART with CD4 count ≤200 cells/mm(3) in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database. The main outcome measure was progression to either an AIDS-defining illness or death occurring 6 months after initiation of cART. We used survival analysis methods. A total of 1255 patients contributed 2696 person years of follow-up; 73 were diagnosed with AIDS and 9 died. The rate of progression to the combined end point was 3.0 per 100 person years. The factors significantly associated with a higher risk of disease progression were Indian ethnicity, infection through intravenous drug use, lower CD4 count, and hemoglobin ≤130 g/dL at 6 months. In conclusion, measurements of CD4 count and hemoglobin at month 6 may be useful for early identification of disease progression in resource-limited settings.

Measures of site resourcing predict virologic suppression, immunologic response and HIV disease progression following highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

OBJECTIVES: Surrogate markers of HIV disease progression are HIV RNA in plasma viral load (VL) and CD4 cell count (immune function). Despite improved international access to antiretrovirals, surrogate marker diagnostics are not routinely available in resource-limited settings. Therefore, the objective was to assess effects of economic and diagnostic resourcing on patient treatment outcomes. METHODS: Analyses were based on 2333 patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) from 2000 onwards. Sites were categorized by World Bank country income criteria (high/low) and annual frequency of VL (> or = 3, 1-2 or <1) or CD4 (> or = 3 or <3) testing. Endpoints were time to AIDS/death and change in CD4 cell count and VL suppression (<400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) at 12 months. Demographics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classification, baseline VL/CD4 cell counts, hepatitis B/C coinfections and HAART regimen were covariates. Time to AIDS/death was analysed by proportional hazards models. CD4 and VL endpoints were analysed using linear and logistic regression, respectively. RESULTS: Increased disease progression was associated with site-reported VL testing less than once per year [hazard ratio (HR)=1.4; P=0.032], severely symptomatic HIV infection (HR=1.4; P=0.003) and hepatitis C virus coinfection (HR=1.8; P=0.011). A total of 1120 patients (48.2%) had change in CD4 cell count data. Smaller increases were associated with older age (P<0.001) and 'Other' HIV source exposures, including injecting drug use and blood products (P=0.043). A total of 785 patients (33.7%) contributed to the VL suppression analyses. Patients from sites with VL testing less than once per year [odds ratio (OR)=0.30; P<0.001] and reporting 'Other' HIV exposures experienced reduced suppression (OR=0.28; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Low measures of site resourcing were associated with less favourable patient outcomes, including a 35% increase in disease progression in patients from sites with VL testing less than once per year.