Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review.

Drowning and climate change are both significant global health threats, yet little research links climate change to drowning risk. Research into the epidemiology, risk factors and preventive strategies for unintentional drowning in high-income and in low-income and middle-income countries has expanded understanding, but understanding of disaster and extreme weather-related drowning needs research focus. As nation states and researchers call for action on climate change, its impact on drowning has been largely ignored. This state-of-the-art review considers existing literature on climate change as a contributor to changes in drowning risks globally. Using selected climate change-related risks identified by the World Meteorological Organization and key risks to the Sustainable Development Goals as a framework, we consider the drowning risks associated with heat waves, hydrometeorological hazards, drought and water scarcity, damaged infrastructure, marine ecosystem collapse, displacement, and rising poverty and inequality. Although the degree of atmospheric warming remains uncertain, the impact of climate change on drowning risk is already taking place and can no longer be ignored. Greater evidence characterising the links between drowning and climate change across both high-income and low-income and middle-income contexts is required, and the implementation and evaluation of drowning interventions must reflect climate change risks at a local level, accounting for both geographical variation and the consequences of inequality. Furthermore, collaboration between the injury prevention, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation sectors is crucial to both prevent climate change from stalling progress on preventing drowning and further advocate for climate change mitigation as a drowning risk reduction mechanism.

Estimating drowning mortality in Tanzania: a systematic review and meta-analysis of existing data sources.

BACKGROUND: The WHO advocates a 7-step process to enable countries to develop and implement drowning prevention strategies. We sought to assess, using existing data sources, the drowning situation in Tanzania as a first step in this process. METHODS: We searched for data on causes of death in Tanzania by reviewing existing literature and global datasets and by in-country networking. Authors and institutions were then contacted to request aggregate data on drowning mortality. Site-specific drowning estimates were combined using a random effects meta-analytic approach. We also tested for evidence of variations in drowning estimates by sex and by age group. RESULTS: We acquired partial or complete information on drowning deaths for 13 data sources. We found strong evidence for substantial variations between study sites (p<0.001). Combining population-based data, we estimated an average of 5.1 drowning deaths per 100 000 persons per year (95% CI 3.8 to 6.3). The proportions of deaths due to drowning were 0.72% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.88) and 0.94% (95% CI 0.09 to 1.78) combining population-based data and hospital-based data, respectively. Males were at greater risk than females, while both under-five children and adults aged 45 years or more were at greater risk than those aged 5-44 years. CONCLUSION: Our estimates of drowning burden are broadly in line with the 2016 Global Burden of Disease and the 2015 WHO Global Health Estimates. While this exercise was useful in raising the burden of drowning in Tanzania with policy makers, planning drowning prevention strategies in this country will require a better understanding of which subpopulations are at high risk.