Exploration of the effects of storm surge on the extent of saltwater intrusion into the surficial aquifer in coastal east-central Florida (USA).

Climate change such as altered frequency and intensity of storm surge from tropical cyclones can cause saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. In this study, a reference SEAWAT model and a diagnostic SEAWAT model are developed to simulate the temporal variation of surficial aquifer total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations after the occurrence of a storm surge for exploration of the effects of storm surge on the extent of saltwater intrusion into the surficial aquifer in coastal east-central Florida (USA). It is indicated from the simulation results that: (1) rapid infiltration and diffusion of overtopping saltwater resulting from storm surge could cause a significant and rapid increase of TDS concentrations in the surficial aquifer right after the occurrence of storm surge; (2) rapid infiltration of freshwater from rainfall could reduce surficial aquifer TDS concentrations beginning from the second year after the occurrence of storm surge in that the infiltrated rainwater could generate an effective hydraulic barrier to impede further inland migration of saltwater and provide a downgradient freshwater discharge for saltwater dilution and flushing counteracting the effects of storm surge on the extent of saltwater intrusion; and (3) infiltrated rainwater might take approximately eight years to dilute and flush the overwhelming majority of infiltrated saltwater back out to the surrounding waterbodies, i.e., the coastal lagoons and the Atlantic Ocean.

Dynamic responses and implications to coastal wetlands and the surrounding regions under sea level rise.

Two distinct microtidal estuarine systems were assessed to advance the understanding of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise in salt marshes. A coupled hydrodynamic-marsh model (Hydro-MEM) was applied to both a marine-dominated (Grand Bay, Mississippi) and a mixed fluvial/marine (Weeks Bay, Alabama) system to compute marsh productivity, marsh migration, and potential tidal inundation from the year 2000 to 2100 under four sea level rise scenarios. Characteristics of the estuaries such as geometry, sediment availability, and topography, were compared to understand their role in the dynamic response to sea level rise. The results show that the low sea level rise scenario (20 cm) approximately doubled high-productivity marsh coverage in the marine-dominated estuary by the year 2100 due to an equilibrium between the rates of sea level rise and marsh platform accretion. Under intermediate-low sea level rise (50 cm), high-productivity marsh coverage in the year 2100 increased (doubled in the marine-dominated estuary and a seven-fold increase in the mixed estuary) by expanding into higher lands followed by the creation of interior ponds. The results also indicate that marine-dominated estuaries are vulnerable to collapse as a result of low, relatively uniform topography and lack of sediment sources, whereas mixed estuaries are able to expand due to higher elevations and sediment inputs. The results from the higher sea level rise scenarios (the intermediate-high (120 cm) and high (200 cm)) showed expansion of the bays along with marsh migration to higher land, producing a five-fold increase in wetland coverage for the mixed estuary and virtually no net change for the marine-dominated estuary. Additionally, hurricane storm surge simulations showed that under higher sea level rise scenarios, the marine-dominated estuary demonstrated weaker peak stage attenuation indicating that the marsh's ability to dissipate storm surge is sensitive to productivity changes and bay expansion / marsh loss.

Assessing sea-level rise impact on saltwater intrusion into the root zone of a geo-typical area in coastal east-central Florida.

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) into root zone in low-lying coastal areas can affect the survival and spatial distribution of various vegetation species by altering plant communities and the wildlife habitats they support. In this study, a baseline model was developed based on FEMWATER to simulate the monthly variation of root zone salinity of a geo-typical area located at the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) of coastal east-central Florida (USA) in 2010. Based on the developed and calibrated baseline model, three diagnostic FEMWATER models were developed to predict the extent of SWI into root zone by modifying the boundary values representing the rising sea level based on various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios projected for 2080. The simulation results indicated that the extent of SWI would be insignificant if SLR is either low (23.4cm) or intermediate (59.0cm), but would be significant if SLR is high (119.5cm) in that infiltration/diffusion of overtopping seawater in coastal low-lying areas can greatly increase root zone salinity level, since the sand dunes may fail to prevent the landward migration of seawater because the waves of the rising sea level can reach and pass over the crest under high (119.5cm) SLR scenario.