Trends (2007-2019) of major atopic diseases throughout the life span in a large Mexican population.

Background: Major atopic diseases such as atopic dermatitis (AD), allergic rhinitis (AR), and asthma share the same atopic background, but they often show differences in their epidemiological behavior. Objective: We aimed to report the profile of these atopic diseases in a large Mexican population, including their age-related incidences, male:female (M:F) ratios, recent time trends, and association with altitude. Methods: Registries from the largest, nationwide health institution in Mexico (more than 34 million insured subjects), were reviewed. New cases of AD, AR, and asthma diagnosed each year by family physicians from 2007 to 2019 were adjusted by the corresponding insured population to estimate incidence rates. Results: Incidences of the 3 atopic diseases were highest in the 0-4 years age-group and progressively decreased thereafter until adolescence. Asthma and AR, but not AD, were more frequent in males during childhood (M:F ratios of 1.5, 1.3, and 0.95, respectively), but predominated in females during adulthood (M:F ratios of 0.52, 0.68, and 0.73, respectively). Time trends showed an initial increasing trend of annual incidences, with a peak around 2009-2011, and a downward trend afterward. This decreasing trend was seen in all age-groups and was more evident for AD (∼50% drop) and asthma (∼40% drop) than for AR (∼20% drop). Geographical distribution suggested that incidences of asthma and AR, but not of AD, had an inverse association with altitude. Conclusion: Annual incidences of the 3 major atopic diseases have declined in recent years in almost all age groups, and their epidemiological profile during the life span showed contrasting differences according to age, sex, and ecological association with altitude, mainly regarding AD.

[Early alert of COVID-19 outbreaks to plan the response in the IMSS]. / Alerta temprana de brotes COVID-19 para planear la respuesta en el IMSS.

The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) developed and implemented epidemic monitoring and modeling tools to support the organization and planning of an adequate and timely response to the COVID-19 health emergency. The aim of this article is to describe the methodology and results of the early outbreak detection tool called COVID-19 Alert. An early warning traffic light was developed that uses time series analysis and a Bayesian method of early detection of outbreaks from electronic records on COVID-19 for suspected cases, confirmed cases, disabilities, hospitalizations, and deaths. Through Alerta COVID-19, the beginning of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in the IMSS was detected in a timely manner, three weeks before the official declaration. The proposed method is aimed at generating early warnings before the start of a new wave of COVID-19, monitoring the serious phase of the epidemic, and supporting decision-making within the institution; unlike other tools that have an approach aimed at communicating risks to the community. We can conclude that the Alerta COVID-19 is an agile tool that incorporates robust methods for the early detection of outbreaks.

El Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) desarrolló e implementó herramientas de monitoreo y modelación de la epidemia para apoyar la organización y planeación de la respuesta adecuada y oportuna a la emergencia sanitaria por COVID-19. El objetivo de este trabajo es describir la metodología y los resultados de la herramienta de detección temprana de brotes denominada Alerta COVID-19. Se desarrolló un semáforo de alertamiento temprano que utiliza análisis de series temporales, así como un método bayesiano de detección temprana de brotes a partir de los registros electrónicos sobre COVID-19 para casos sospechosos, confirmados, incapacidades, hospitalizaciones y defunciones. A través de la Alerta COVID-19 se detectó oportunamente, con tres semanas de anticipación a la declaratoria oficial, el inicio de la quinta ola de COVID-19 en el IMSS. El método propuesto está orientado a generar alertas tempranas ante el inicio de una nueva ola de COVID-19, monitorear la fase grave de la epidemia y apoyar la toma de decisiones al interior de la institución; a diferencia de otras herramientas que tienen un enfoque dirigido a la comunicación de riesgos a la comunidad. Podemos concluir que la Alerta COVID-19 es una herramienta ágil que incorpora métodos robustos para la detección temprana de brotes.

Factors related to changes in the asthma male: female ratio by age in 403 Mexican counties.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is more frequent in males during childhood and in females after adolescence, which has been attributed to changes in sexual hormones levels. OBJECTIVE: We explored changes of the asthma male: female ratio (AMFR) by age group in a large population (nationwide), and its ecological association (at county level) with some medical, geographical, or sociodemographic factors. METHODS: Registries of the largest medical institution in Mexico (∼37.5 million subjects assigned to a family physician) were analyzed and the AMFR calculated using asthma incidences. RESULTS: In boys, asthma incidence peaked at 0 to 4 years and progressively decreased, reaching a plateau in adulthood. In girls, asthma incidence showed a bimodal pattern, with maximal rates at 0 to 4 years old, and again at 50 to 54 years old. In the ecological analysis performed in more than 400 counties, the AMFR in adults (≥15 years old) inversely correlated with population density (r = -0.256) and altitude (r = -0.144), and directly correlated with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI, r = 0.215), diabetes (r = 0.186), marginalization (r = 0.179), pneumonias (r = 0.166), and mean maximal temperature (r = 0.142), all with P < .01. In the multiple linear regression, only population density (P < .001) and ARTI (P = .006) remained statistically significant in the final model. CONCLUSION: Asthma incidence in males and females did not match the expected sexual hormones variations, and other factors such as population density and ARTI also influenced the AMFR. These findings challenge the traditional belief that sexual hormones are major determinants of the AMFR.

Mortality from type 2 diabetes and implementation of the PREVENIMSS program: a time series study in Mexico, 1998-2015. / Mortalidad por diabetes tipo 2 y la implementación del programa PREVENIMSS: un estudio de series de tiempo en México, 1998-2015.

Type 2 diabetes is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the world. In Mexico it is the first cause of mortality, disability, and potential years of life lost due to premature death. The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) implemented the PREVENIMSS strategy. The aim of the current study was to estimate the program's effect on the mortality trend from type 2 diabetes, based on an interrupted time series analysis. At the beginning of the target period, the diabetes mortality rate was higher in IMSS beneficiaries than in the control population. After the program's implementation, there was a slight reduction in the mortality trend, while the control group showed an upward trend. Differences in the trends between the two groups suggest that they are not the exclusive result of institutional interventions. Living and work conditions could explain these differences.

La diabetes tipo 2 es la principal causa de mortalidad y morbilidad en el mundo. En México es la primera causa de mortalidad, discapacidad, años perdidos por muerte prematura. El Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) implementó la estrategia PREVENIMSS. El objetivo del presente estudio es determinar el efecto de dicho programa en la tendencia de la mortalidad por diabetes tipo 2, realizando un análisis de series de tiempo interrumpidas. Al inicio del periodo de tiempo analizado, la tasa de mortalidad de diabetes en los derechohabientes era mayor, en comparación con la población control. Posterior a la implementación del programa, se presentó una discreta reducción en la tendencia de la mortalidad, mientras que en el grupo control la tendencia fue ascendente. Las diferencias encontradas en las tendencias entre las poblaciones comparadas sugieren que no son resultado exclusivo de las intervenciones institucionales. Las condiciones de vida y de trabajo podrían explicar dichas diferencias.

O diabetes tipo 2 é a primeira causa de morbi-mortalidade no mundo. No México, é a primeira causa de mortalidade, incapacidade e anos de vida perdidos. O Instituto Mexicano de Seguridade Social (IMSS) implementou a estratégia conhecida como PREVENIMSS. O estudo atual teve como objetivo estimar o efeito do programa sobre a tendência na mortalidade por diabetes tipo 2, com base em uma análise de série temporal ininterrupta. No início do período de estudo, a taxa de mortalidade por diabetes era mais alta entre segurados do IMSS do que na população controle. Depois da implementação do programa, houve uma pequena redução na mortalidade, enquanto o grupo controle mostrava uma tendência crescente. Diferenças nas tendências entre os dois grupos sugerem que não resultam exclusivamente de intervenções institucionais. As condições de vida e de trabalho podem ajudar a explicar essas diferenças.

Altitude above 1500 m is a major determinant of asthma incidence. An ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest an inverse correlation between asthma and altitude. In the present work, we performed an in-depth analysis of asthma incidence in the 758 Mexican counties covered by the largest medical institution in the country (∼37.5 million insured subjects), and evaluated its relationships with altitude and other factors. METHODS: Asthma incidence in each county was calculated from new cases diagnosed by family physicians. Other variables in the same counties, including selected diseases, geographical variables, and socioeconomic factors, were also obtained and their association with asthma was evaluated through bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Median asthma incidence was 296.2 × 100,000 insured subjects, but tended to be higher in those counties located on or near the coast. When asthma incidence was plotted against altitude, a two-stage pattern was evident: asthma rates were relatively stable in counties located below an altitude of ∼1500 m, while these rates progressively decreased as altitude increased beyond this level (rS = -0.51, p < .001). Multivariate analysis showed that, once each variable was adjusted by the potential influence of the others, asthma incidence was inversely correlated with altitude (standardized ß coefficient, -0.577), helminthiasis (-0.173), pulmonary tuberculosis (-0.130), and latitude (-0.126), and was positively correlated with acute respiratory tract infection (0.382), pneumonia (0.289), type 2 diabetes (0.138), population (0.108), and pharyngotonsillitis (0.088), all with a p ≤ .001. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that altitude higher than ∼1500 m comprises a major factor in determining asthma incidence, with the risk of new-onset asthma decreasing as altitude increases. Other less influential conditions were also identified.

Mortalidad por diabetes tipo 2 y la implementación del programa PREVENIMSS: un estudio de series de tiempo en México, 1998-2015 / Mortalidade por diabetes tipo 2 e implementação do programa PREVENIMSS: um estudo de série temporal no México, 1998-2015 / Mortality from type 2 diabetes and implementation of the PREVENIMSS program: a time series study in Mexico, 1998-2015

Resumen: La diabetes tipo 2 es la principal causa de mortalidad y morbilidad en el mundo. En México es la primera causa de mortalidad, discapacidad, años perdidos por muerte prematura. El Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) implementó la estrategia PREVENIMSS. El objetivo del presente estudio es determinar el efecto de dicho programa en la tendencia de la mortalidad por diabetes tipo 2, realizando un análisis de series de tiempo interrumpidas. Al inicio del periodo de tiempo analizado, la tasa de mortalidad de diabetes en los derechohabientes era mayor, en comparación con la población control. Posterior a la implementación del programa, se presentó una discreta reducción en la tendencia de la mortalidad, mientras que en el grupo control la tendencia fue ascendente. Las diferencias encontradas en las tendencias entre las poblaciones comparadas sugieren que no son resultado exclusivo de las intervenciones institucionales. Las condiciones de vida y de trabajo podrían explicar dichas diferencias.

Resumo: O diabetes tipo 2 é a primeira causa de morbi-mortalidade no mundo. No México, é a primeira causa de mortalidade, incapacidade e anos de vida perdidos. O Instituto Mexicano de Seguridade Social (IMSS) implementou a estratégia conhecida como PREVENIMSS. O estudo atual teve como objetivo estimar o efeito do programa sobre a tendência na mortalidade por diabetes tipo 2, com base em uma análise de série temporal ininterrupta. No início do período de estudo, a taxa de mortalidade por diabetes era mais alta entre segurados do IMSS do que na população controle. Depois da implementação do programa, houve uma pequena redução na mortalidade, enquanto o grupo controle mostrava uma tendência crescente. Diferenças nas tendências entre os dois grupos sugerem que não resultam exclusivamente de intervenções institucionais. As condições de vida e de trabalho podem ajudar a explicar essas diferenças.

Abstract: Type 2 diabetes is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the world. In Mexico it is the first cause of mortality, disability, and potential years of life lost due to premature death. The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) implemented the PREVENIMSS strategy. The aim of the current study was to estimate the program's effect on the mortality trend from type 2 diabetes, based on an interrupted time series analysis. At the beginning of the target period, the diabetes mortality rate was higher in IMSS beneficiaries than in the control population. After the program's implementation, there was a slight reduction in the mortality trend, while the control group showed an upward trend. Differences in the trends between the two groups suggest that they are not the exclusive result of institutional interventions. Living and work conditions could explain these differences.