Analysis of Philip Morris International's 'aspirational' target for its 2025 cigarette shipments.

BACKGROUND: Philip Morris International (PMI) claims to be transforming and has committed to a 'smoke-free' future. In 2020, it announced an 'aspirational' target for reduced cigarette shipments by 2025. METHODS: PMI cigarette shipment data are taken from PMI quarterly financial reports 2008-2023. Trends in these data before and after the 2020 announcement are analysed using linear regression, and auto regressive integrated moving average and error, trend, seasonal time-series models to assess if PMI's 2025 target would be met on pre-existing trends, and if the trend changed after the announcement. These trends are also compared with the global retail market for cigarettes, using sales data from Euromonitor. RESULTS: Findings were consistent across all three models. PMI's shipment target of 550 billion cigarette sticks by 2025 would readily have been met given pre-existing shipment trends. Following the 2020 announcement, the decline in PMI cigarette shipments stalled markedly with a statistically significant change in trend (p<0.001). The current and projected trend to 2025 is consistent with no further decline in cigarette volumes, meaning PMI is unlikely to hit its target. This mirrors a global pattern in which declines in cigarette sales have stalled since 2020. CONCLUSIONS: PMI's 2025 target was not 'aspirational' but highly conservative-it would have been met based on pre-existing trends in declining cigarette shipments. Yet PMI will nonetheless fail to meet that target providing evidence it is not transforming. Stalling of the decline of PMI and global cigarette sales raises significant concerns about progress in global tobacco control.

Sentiment analysis of COP9-related tweets: a comparative study of pre-trained models and traditional techniques.

Introduction: Sentiment analysis has become a crucial area of research in natural language processing in recent years. The study aims to compare the performance of various sentiment analysis techniques, including lexicon-based, machine learning, Bi-LSTM, BERT, and GPT-3 approaches, using two commonly used datasets, IMDB reviews and Sentiment140. The objective is to identify the best-performing technique for an exemplar dataset, tweets associated with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Ninth Conference of the Parties in 2021 (COP9). Methods: A two-stage evaluation was conducted. In the first stage, various techniques were compared on standard sentiment analysis datasets using standard evaluation metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and precision. In the second stage, the best-performing techniques from the first stage were applied to partially annotated COP9 conference-related tweets. Results: In the first stage, BERT achieved the highest F1-scores (0.9380 for IMDB and 0.8114 for Sentiment 140), followed by GPT-3 (0.9119 and 0.7913) and Bi-LSTM (0.8971 and 0.7778). In the second stage, GPT-3 performed the best for sentiment analysis on partially annotated COP9 conference-related tweets, with an F1-score of 0.8812. Discussion: The study demonstrates the effectiveness of pre-trained models like BERT and GPT-3 for sentiment analysis tasks, outperforming traditional techniques on standard datasets. Moreover, the better performance of GPT-3 on the partially annotated COP9 tweets highlights its ability to generalize well to domain-specific data with limited annotations. This provides researchers and practitioners with a viable option of using pre-trained models for sentiment analysis in scenarios with limited or no annotated data across different domains.

Sociodemographic factor associations with maternal and placental outcomes: A cluster and partial least squares regression analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal social disadvantage adversely affects maternal and offspring health, with limited research on placental outcomes. Therefore, we examined maternal sociodemographic factor associations with placental and birth outcomes in general (Lifeways Cross-Generation Cohort) and at-risk (PEARS Study of mothers with overweight or obesity) populations of pregnant women. METHODS: TwoStep cluster analysis profiled Lifeways mothers (n = 250) based on their age, parity, marital status, household income, private healthcare insurance, homeowner status, and education. Differences in placental and birth outcomes (untrimmed placental weight (PW), birthweight (BW) and BW:PW ratio) between clusters were assessed using one-way ANOVA and chi-square tests. Partial least squares regression analysed individual effects of sociodemographic factors on placental and birth outcomes in Lifeways and PEARS mothers (n = 461). RESULTS: Clusters were classified as "Married Homeowners" (n = 140, 56 %), "Highest Income" (n = 58, 23.2 %) and "Renters" (n = 52, 20.8 %) in the Lifeways Cohort. Renters were younger, more likely to smoke, have a means-tested medical card and more pro-inflammatory diets compared to other clusters (p < 0.01). Compared to Married Homeowners, renters' offspring had lower BW (-259.26 g, p < 0.01), shorter birth length (-1.31 cm, p < 0.01) and smaller head circumference (-0.59 cm, p = 0.02). PLS regression analyses identified nulliparity as having the greatest negative effect on PW (Lifeways and PEARS) while being a homeowner had the greatest positive effect on PW (Lifeways). CONCLUSION: Certain combinations of sociodemographic factors (particularly homeownership) were associated with less favourable lifestyle factors, and with birth, but not placental outcomes. When explored individually, parity contributed to the prediction of placental and birth outcomes in both cohorts of pregnant women.

Stability of child appetitive traits and association with diet quality at 5 years and 9-11 years old: Findings from the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We explored change in child appetitive traits from 5 to 9-11 years old and examined associations between appetitive traits at both timepoints and child diet quality. METHODS: This is secondary analyses of the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study, including mother-child dyads from the 5 and 9-11-year old follow-up. The Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire measured child appetitive traits, with 167 children having matched data for both timepoints. The Healthy Eating Index (HEI) measured diet quality. Linear mixed models and multiple linear regression were completed. RESULTS: Mean (SD) score for 'Emotional Overeating' (1.63 (0.51) vs. 1.99 (0.57), p = <0.001) and 'Enjoyment of Food' (3.79 (0.72) vs. 3.98 (0.66), p = <0.001) increased from 5 to 9-11 years. Mean score for 'Desire to Drink' (2.63 (0.94) vs. 2.45 (0.85), p = 0.01), 'Satiety Responsiveness (3.07 (0.66) vs. 2.71 (0.66), p = <0.001), 'Slowness Eating' (3.02 (0.77) vs. 2.64 (0.78), p = <0.001), and 'Food Fussiness' (3.00 (1.04) vs. 2.81 (0.96), p = 0.001) decreased. At 5-years-old, 'Food Responsiveness' and 'Enjoyment of Food' were positively associated with HEI and 'Desire to Drink', 'Satiety Responsiveness' and 'Food Fussiness' were negatively associated with HEI. At 9-11-years, 'Enjoyment of Food' was positively and 'Desire to Drink' and 'Food 'Fussiness' were negatively associated with HEI. CONCLUSIONS: Food approach appetitive traits increased over time, whereas food avoidant appetitive traits tended to decrease. At both time points 'Food Fussiness' and 'Desire to Drink" were inversely associated with HEI. Further research on how appetitive traits track over childhood and how this relates to dietary quality and weight is warranted.

Multicomponent perinatal breastfeeding support in women with BMI >25: The Latch On multi-centre randomised trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of a multicomponent breastfeeding support intervention on breastfeeding prevalence at 3 months among women with a body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 . DESIGN: Multicentre multicomponent randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Four maternity centres in Ireland. POPULATION: A total of 225 primiparous women and their nominated support partners. Participants were aged 18 years and over, with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 , carrying a singleton pregnancy and without contraindication for breastfeeding. METHODS: The intervention included an antenatal group breastfeeding education session for participants and their support partners, followed by a planned postnatal breastfeeding assessment and telephone support for up to 6 weeks by a lactation consultant. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Any breastfeeding at 3 months postpartum. RESULTS: Any breastfeeding prevalence was 68.7% (n = 68) in the intervention group and 62.1% (n = 59) in the control group at 3 months postpartum (odds ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.72-2.46, p = 0.36). Any and exclusive breastfeeding rates did not significantly differ at any other time point. More women in the control group accessed support from private lactation consultants (intervention 23.5% [n = 12], control 45.3% [n = 24], p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The control group had higher than expected breastfeeding rates, and the study found no evidence of effect on the primary outcome. Providing comprehensive education and support for women intending to breastfeed remains of paramount importance.

Topic prediction for tobacco control based on COP9 tweets using machine learning techniques.

The prediction of tweets associated with specific topics offers the potential to automatically focus on and understand online discussions surrounding these issues. This paper introduces a comprehensive approach that centers on the topic of "harm reduction" within the broader context of tobacco control. The study leveraged tweets from the period surrounding the ninth Conference of the Parties to review the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (COP9) as a case study to pilot this approach. By using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)-based topic modeling, the study successfully categorized tweets related to harm reduction. Subsequently, various machine learning techniques were employed to predict these topics, achieving a prediction accuracy of 91.87% using the Random Forest algorithm. Additionally, the study explored correlations between retweets and sentiment scores. It also conducted a toxicity analysis to understand the extent to which online conversations lacked neutrality. Understanding the topics, sentiment, and toxicity of Twitter data is crucial for identifying public opinion and its formation. By specifically focusing on the topic of "harm reduction" in tweets related to COP9, the findings offer valuable insights into online discussions surrounding tobacco control. This understanding can aid policymakers in effectively informing the public and garnering public support, ultimately contributing to the successful implementation of tobacco control policies.

Dietary intakes of iron, folate, and vitamin B12 during pregnancy and correlation with maternal hemoglobin and fetal growth: findings from the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study.

PURPOSE: Dietary micronutrient intakes of iron, folate and vitamin B12 are known to influence hemoglobin. Low maternal hemoglobin (maternal anemia) has been linked to low birthweight and other adverse health outcomes in the fetus and infant. Our primary aim was to explore relationships between maternal dietary micronutrient intakes, maternal full blood count (FBC) parameters and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) growth trajectories. Secondarily, we aimed to assess relationships between maternal dietary micronutrient intakes, maternal hemoglobin values and placental weight and birthweight. METHODS: Mother-child pairs (n = 759) recruited for the ROLO study were included in this analysis. Maternal dietary micronutrient intakes were calculated from food diaries completed during each trimester of pregnancy. FBC samples were collected at 13- and 28-weeks' gestation. Fetal ultrasound measurements were recorded at 20- and 34-weeks' gestation. Growth trajectories for AC and EFW were estimated using latent class trajectory mixture models. RESULTS: Dietary intakes of iron and folate were deficient for all trimesters. Mean maternal hemoglobin levels were replete at 13- and 28-weeks' gestation. Dietary iron, folate and vitamin B12 intakes showed no associations with fetal growth trajectories, placental weight or birthweight. Lower maternal hemoglobin concentrations at 28 weeks' gestation were associated with faster rates of fetal growth and larger placental weights and birthweights. CONCLUSION: The negative association between maternal hemoglobin at 28 weeks' gestation and accelerated fetal and placental growth may be due to greater consumption of maternal iron and hemoglobin by fetuses' on faster growth trajectories in addition to placental biochemical responses to lower oxygen states.

Hosting the Tobacco Industry Supply Chain and Political Interference.

INTRODUCTION: We found no comprehensive studies on the location of transnational tobacco and leaf company (TTLC) subsidiaries (business entities they control) or the consequences of their presence on health policy. AIMS AND METHODS: Here we assess (1) the global reach of TTLCs by mapping their tobacco growing and manufacturing subsidiaries and (2) the relationship between in-country presence of the tobacco industry and their power and interference. Data on subsidiaries were collated through systematic searching for countries' supply chain activities in documents and web pages. Cross-sectional multiple regression analysis was used to assess the association between the number of agricultural and manufacturing TTLCs and the Tobacco Industry Interference score, and the degree to which these were mediated by tobacco control, good governance, and economic importance of tobacco. RESULTS: TTLC supply chain activity had global reach. As the number of TTLCs with tobacco growing and manufacturing activities rose, interference increased significantly. Interference was associated with poorer tobacco control. The association with more TTLCs undertaking final product manufacturing was related to higher-value tobacco exports but was not related to tobacco making a bigger contribution to the economy. CONCLUSIONS: TTLCs continue to control the global tobacco supply chain through their globe-spanning subsidiaries. The presence of TTLCs in a country is associated with political interference. Countries should consider their participation in the tobacco supply chain alongside the understanding that they are likely to cede political power to TTLCs, potentially undermining the health of their populations. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco control research has traditionally concentrated on the demand side of tobacco. Our results lend support to calls for more research on the supply of tobacco. Governments should require tobacco companies to provide detailed, up-to-date information in an easily accessible format on in-country supply chain activities. Policymakers should take the likelihood of political interference in health and environmental policy into account when making decisions about foreign direct investment offered by the tobacco industry.

Maternal Well-Being in Pregnancy and Breastfeeding Practices: Findings from the ROLO Study.

OBJECTIVE: Low mood is common during the perinatal period, which may negatively impact breastfeeding practices. Exploring predictors of successful breastfeeding is a health priority area. This study investigated if maternal well-being during pregnancy is associated with breastfeeding practices. STUDY DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized control trial of a low glycemic index diet in pregnancy. A total of 610 secundigravida women were recruited in the National Maternity Hospital, Dublin, Ireland. Data on maternal education attainment, early pregnancy body mass index (BMI), and age were collected from hospital records. Well-being was self-reported by mothers between 10 and 28 weeks' gestation using the World Health Organization 5-Item well-being index. Scores were transformed to give percentage well-being. Mothers recorded breastfeeding practices at hospital discharge and at the study follow-up appointments. Chi-squares and independent t-tests determined initial differences in breastfeeding practices. Multiple and logistic regression analyses were used to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: Average maternal age was 32.7 years; average BMI was 26.6 kg/m2, and 56% had achieved third-level education. The average well-being score was 58.2%. In unadjusted analysis, high well-being scores were associated with exclusive breastfeeding (56.2% breastfed vs. 46%, breastfed p < 0.03). After adjusted analysis, these associations were no longer significant (odds ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.01). No other associations were found. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicated 25% of pregnant women in the first trimester reported low well-being scores. Associations between maternal well-being and breastfeeding patterns were explained by maternal age and education level, suggesting low mood may not be a barrier to breastfeeding initiation or duration. This trial is registered at: https://www.isrctn.com/ ISRCTN54392969. KEY POINTS: · Well-being during pregnancy is often diminished and the WHO 5-Item well-being index is a useful measure in clinical settings to assess maternal well-being.. · Breastfeeding is a high-priority research area, particularly in an Irish setting.. · Well-being was not related to breastfeeding, however age, BMI and education were the main predictors of low well-being during pregnancy..

Cardiovascular fitness is associated with child adiposity at 5 years of age: findings from the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular fitness is strongly linked with metabolic risk; however, research is limited in preschool children. Although there is currently no simple validated measure of fitness in preschool children, heart rate recovery has been highlighted as an easily accessible and non-invasive predictor of cardiovascular risk in school-aged children and adolescents. We aimed to investigate whether heart rate recovery was associated with adiposity and blood pressure in 5-year-olds. STUDY DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of 272 5-year-olds from the ROLO (Randomised cOntrol trial of LOw glycaemic index diet in pregnancy to prevent recurrence of macrosomia) Kids study. Three-minute step tests were completed by 272 participants to determine heart rate recovery duration. Body mass index (BMI), circumferences, skinfold thickness, heart rate, and blood pressure were collected. Independent t-tests, Mann-Whitney U, and Chi-square tests were used to compare participants. Linear regression models examined associations between heart rate recovery and child adiposity. Confounders included child sex, age at study visit, breastfeeding, and perceived effort in the step test. RESULTS: The median (IQR) age at the study visit was 5.13 (0.16) years. 16.2% (n = 44) had overweight and 4.4% (n = 12) had obesity based on their BMI centile. Boys had a quicker mean (SD) heart rate recovery after the step test than girls (112.5 (47.7) seconds vs. 128.8 (62.5) seconds, p = 0.02). Participants with a slower recovery time (> 105 s) had higher median (IQR) sum of skinfolds (35.5 (11.8) mm vs. 34.0 (10.0) mm, p = 0.02) and median (IQR) sum of subscapular and triceps skinfold (15.6 (4.4) mm vs. 14.4 (4.0) mm, p = 0.02) compared to participants with a quicker recovery time. After adjusting for confounders (child sex, age at study visit, breastfeeding, effort in the step test), linear regression analyses revealed heart rate recovery time after stepping was positively associated with sum of skinfolds (B = 0.034, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.06, p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Child adiposity was positively associated with heart rate recovery time after the step test. A simple stepping test could be used as a non-invasive and inexpensive fitness tool in 5-year-olds. Additional research is needed to validate the ROLO Kids step test in preschool children.

Associations between the maternal healthy lifestyle score and its individual components during early pregnancy with placental outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: The influence of maternal lifestyle behaviours on placental growth have been investigated individually, but with conflicting results, and their combined effect is under-researched. Therefore, we examined associations between a composite maternal healthy lifestyle score (HLS), and its individual components, during early pregnancy with placental outcomes. METHODS: Participants included Lifeways Cross-Generational Cohort mother-child pairs (n = 202). A composite HLS based on a less inflammatory diet (bottom 40% of the energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII™)), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), healthy pre-pregnancy BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), never smoking, and non-/moderate alcohol intake was calculated. Quantile regression analysed HLS (and individual components) associations with measures of placental development (untrimmed placental weight (PW)) and function (birth weight:placental weight (BW:PW) ratio) at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th centiles. RESULTS: A more pro-inflammatory diet was positively, and smoking and heavy alcohol consumption were negatively, associated with PW at median centiles (B: 41.97 g, CI: 3.71, 80.22, p < 0.05; B: -58.51 g, CI: -116.24, -0.77, p < 0.05; B: -120.20 g, CI: -177.97, -62.43, p < 0.05 respectively). Low MVPA was inversely associated with BW:PW ratio at the 10th and 90th centiles (B: -0.36, CI: -0.132, -0.29, p < 0.01 and B: -0.45, CI: -0.728, -0.182, p < 0.01, respectively). Heavy alcohol intake was positively associated with BW:PW ratio at the 10th centile (B: 0.54, CI: 0.24, 0.85, p < 0.01). Results of sex-stratified analysis provide evidence of sexual dimorphism. DISCUSSION: Associations of certain lifestyle factors, but not the composite HLS, during early pregnancy with measures of placental development (PW) and function (BW:PW ratio) varied by quantiles and by sex.

Maternal and Paternal Dietary Quality and Dietary Inflammation Associations with Offspring DNA Methylation and Epigenetic Biomarkers of Aging in the Lifeways Cross-Generation Study.

BACKGROUND: Early-life nutritional exposures may contribute to offspring epigenetic modifications. However, few studies have evaluated parental dietary quality effects on offspring DNA methylation (DNAm). OBJECTIVES: We aim to fill this gap by elucidating the influence of maternal and paternal whole-diet quality and inflammatory potential on offspring DNAm in the Lifeways Cross-generation cohort. METHODS: Families (n = 1124) were recruited around 16 weeks of gestation in the Republic of Ireland between 2001 and 2003. Maternal dietary intake during the first trimester and paternal diet during the 12 previous months were assessed with an FFQ. Parental dietary inflammatory potential and quality were determined using the energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII), the Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), and the maternal DASH score. DNAm in the saliva of 246 children at age nine was measured using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylationEPIC array. DNAm-derived biomarkers of aging, the Pediatric-Buccal-Epigenetic clock and DNAm estimator of telomere length, were calculated. Parental diet associations with the DNAm concentrations of 850K Cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites (CpG sites) and with DNAm-derived biomarkers of aging were examined using an epigenome-wide association study and linear regressions, respectively. RESULTS: Maternal HEI-2015 scores were inversely associated with DNAm at CpG site (cg21840035) located near the PLEKHM1 gene, whose functions involve regulation of bone development (ß = -0.0036, per 1 point increase in the score; P = 5.6 × 10-8). Higher paternal HEI-2015 score was related to lower methylation at CpG site (cg22431767), located near cell signaling gene LUZP1 (ß = -0.0022, per 1 point increase in the score, P = 4.1 × 10-8). There were no associations with parental E-DII and DASH scores, and no evidence of major effects on biomarkers of aging. CONCLUSIONS: Parental dietary quality in the prenatal period, evaluated by the HEI-2015, may influence offspring DNAm during childhood. Further research to improve our understanding of parental nutritional programming is warranted.

Associations between maternal dietary scores during early pregnancy with placental outcomes.

Background and aims: Individual macronutrient and micronutrient effects on placental growth have been widely investigated. However, the influence of overall maternal diet is relatively unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine associations between a range of maternal dietary scores during early pregnancy with placental outcomes, and to investigate whether there is evidence of sexual dimorphism. Methods: This analysis of the Lifeways Cross-Generational Cohort includes 276 mother-child pairs. A validated 148-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire assessed maternal diet in early pregnancy. Dietary scores reflecting dietary quality [Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2015), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)], dietary inflammatory potential [Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and the energy adjusted DII (E-DII)], dietary antioxidant status [Dietary Antioxidant Quality (DAQ)], and glycemic and insulinemic loads/indices (GL/GI, IL/II) were calculated. Linear regression analyses assessed maternal dietary score relationships with untrimmed placental weight (PW) and birth weight:placental weight (BW:PW) ratio. Results: In fully adjusted models, maternal E-DII and GI were positively associated, and HEI-2015 and DAQ were negatively associated with PW (B: 12.31, 95% CI: 0.41, 24.20, p = 0.04, B: 4.13, 95% CI: 0.10, 8.17, p = 0.04, B: -2.70, 95% CI: -5.03, -0.35, p = 0.02 and B: -15.03, 95% CI: -28.08, -1.98, p = 0.02, for E-DII, GI, HEI-2015 and DAQ respectively). Maternal DAQ associations with BW:PW ratio were attenuated. When stratified by sex, maternal GI and pregnancy-specific DAQ were associated with PW in female offspring (B: 5.61, 95% CI: 0.27, 10.96, p = 0.04 and B: -15.31, 95% CI: -30.35, -0.27, p = 0.046). Maternal E-DII and HEI-2015 were associated with PW in males (B: 24.31, 95% CI: 5.66, 42.96, p = 0.01 and B: -3.85, 95% CI: -7.47, -0.35, p = 0.03 respectively). Conclusion: The results of this novel investigation suggest that maternal diet may influence placental development. Female fetuses may be more sensitive to increased glucose levels whereas male fetuses may be more susceptible to in-utero stresses that are regulated by inflammatory pathways and overall diet quality. Hence, early pregnancy offers an opportune time for a mother to prioritize dietary changes that focus on reducing inflammatory and glycemic responses.

Towards an explainable clinical decision support system for large-for-gestational-age births.

A myriad of maternal and neonatal complications can result from delivery of a large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infant. LGA birth rates have increased in many countries since the late 20th century, partially due to a rise in maternal body mass index, which is associated with LGA risk. The objective of the current study was to develop LGA prediction models for women with overweight and obesity for the purpose of clinical decision support in a clinical setting. Maternal characteristics, serum biomarkers and fetal anatomy scan measurements for 465 pregnant women with overweight and obesity before and at approximately 21 weeks gestation were obtained from the PEARS (Pregnancy Exercise and Nutrition with smart phone application support) study data. Random forest, support vector machine, adaptive boosting and extreme gradient boosting algorithms were applied with synthetic minority over-sampling technique to develop probabilistic prediction models. Two models were developed for use in different settings: a clinical setting for white women (AUC-ROC of 0.75); and a clinical setting for women of all ethnicity and regions (AUC-ROC of 0.57). Maternal age, mid upper arm circumference, white cell count at the first antenatal visit, fetal biometry and gestational age at fetal anatomy scan were found to be important predictors of LGA. Pobal HP deprivation index and fetal biometry centiles, which are population-specific, are also important. Moreover, we explained our models with Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) to improve explainability, which was proven effective by case studies. Our explainable models can effectively predict the probability of an LGA birth for women with overweight and obesity, and are anticipated to be useful to support clinical decision-making and for the development of early pregnancy intervention strategies to reduce pregnancy complications related to LGA.

Maternal dietary quality during pregnancy and child appetitive traits at 5-years-old: Findings from the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study.

Maternal diet during pregnancy is an important determinant of birth outcomes and offspring health. The relationship between maternal diet quality during pregnancy and the development of appetitive traits in early childhood has not been extensively researched. We examined associations of maternal diet quality during pregnancy with child appetitive traits at 5 years old. This is a secondary analysis of the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study. We assessed maternal diet during pregnancy using 3-day food diaries and evaluated diet quality using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index, modified for pregnancy (AHEI-P). Children's appetitive traits at 5-years-old were assessed using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ) (n = 306). Average AHEI-P score over trimesters was calculated and stratified into tertiles. Maternal and child characteristics were examined across AHEI-P tertiles. Multiple linear regression was conducted to explore associations between maternal AHEI-P scores in each trimester and child appetitive traits at 5-years-old. Women with low AHEI-P scores were younger at childbirth and had higher BMI. In adjusted linear regression maternal AHEI-P was negatively associated with child 'Desire to Drink' (Trimester 1: B = -0.014, 95% CI = -0.025, -0.002, p = 0.017; Trimester 2: B = -0.013, 95% CI = -0.025, -0.001, p = 0.035). Trimester 3 AHEI-P was not associated with any child appetitive traits. Maternal diet quality in pregnancy may provide an early opportunity to positively influence the development of offspring's appetitive traits.

Maternal Glycaemic and Insulinemic Status and Newborn DNA Methylation: Findings in Women With Overweight and Obesity.

CONTEXT: Maternal dysglycaemia and prepregnancy obesity are associated with adverse offspring outcomes. Epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation (DNAm) could contribute. OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between maternal glycaemia, insulinemic status, and dietary glycemic indices during pregnancy and an antenatal behavioral-lifestyle intervention with newborn DNAm. METHODS: We investigated 172 women from a randomized controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention in pregnant women who were overweight or obese. Fasting glucose and insulin concentrations and derived indices of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), ß-cell function (HOMA-%B), and insulin sensitivity were determined at baseline (15) and 28 weeks' gestation. Dietary glycemic load (GL) and index (GI) were calculated from 3-day food diaries. Newborn cord blood DNAm levels of 850K CpG sites were measured using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylationEPIC array. Associations of each biomarker, dietary index and intervention with DNAm were examined. RESULTS: Early pregnancy HOMA-IR and HOMA-%B were associated with lower DNAm at CpG sites cg03158092 and cg05985988, respectively. Early pregnancy insulin sensitivity was associated with higher DNAm at cg04976151. Higher late pregnancy insulin concentrations and GL scores were positively associated with DNAm at CpGs cg12082129 and cg11955198 and changes in maternal GI with lower DNAm at CpG cg03403995 (Bonferroni corrected P < 5.99 × 10-8). These later associations were located at genes previously implicated in growth or regulation of insulin processes. No effects of the intervention on cord blood DNAm were observed. None of our findings were replicated in previous studies. CONCLUSION: Among women who were overweight or obese, maternal pregnancy dietary glycemic indices, glucose, and insulin homeostasis were associated with modest changes in their newborn methylome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN29316280.

Ecological factors and childhood eating behaviours at 5 years of age: findings from the ROLO longitudinal birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Individual differences in children eating behaviours have been linked with childhood overweight and obesity. The determinants of childhood eating behaviours are influenced by a complex combination of hereditary and ecological factors. This study examines if key ecological predictors of childhood overweight; maternal socio-economic status (SES), children's screen time, and childcare arrangements, are associated with eating behaviours in children aged 5-years-old. METHODS: This is secondary, cross-sectional analysis of the ROLO (Randomized COntrol Trial of LOw glycemic diet in pregnancy) study, using data from the 5-year follow-up (n = 306). Weight, height, and body mass index (BMI) were obtained from mothers and children at the 5-year follow-up. Children's BMI z-scores were calculated. SES was determined using maternal education level and neighborhood deprivation score. Information on children's screen time and childcare arrangements were collected using lifestyle questionnaires. Children's eating behaviours were measured using the Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ). Multiple linear regression, adjusted for potential confounders, assessed associations between maternal SES, screen time and children's eating behaviours. One-way ANOVA, independent sample t-tests and Spearman's correlation examined childcare exposure and children's eating behaviour. RESULTS: Mothers in the lowest SES group had higher BMI and were younger than those in the highest SES group (p = < 0.001, p = 0.03 respectively). In adjusted analysis, the lowest SES group was associated with a 0.463-point higher mean score for 'Desire to Drink' (95% CI = 0.054,0.870, p = 0.027) and higher 'Slowness to Eat' (B = 0.388, 95% CI = 0.044,0.733, p = 0.027) when compared with the highest SES group. Screen time (hours) was associated with higher 'Food Fussiness' (B = 0.032, 95% CI = 0.014,0.051, p = 0.001). Those who attended childcare had higher scores for 'Desire to Drink'(p = 0.046). No relationship was observed between longer duration (years) spent in childcare and eating behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, the ecological factors examined had an influence on children's eating behaviours aged 5-years-old. Our results illustrate the complexity of the relationship between the child's environment, eating behaviour and children's body composition. Being aware of the ecological factors that impact the development of eating behaviours, in the pre-school years is vital to promote optimal childhood appetitive traits, thus reducing the risk of issues with excess adiposity long-term.

Early-life respiratory tract infections and the risk of school-age lower lung function and asthma: a meta-analysis of 150 000 European children.

BACKGROUND: Early-life respiratory tract infections might affect chronic obstructive respiratory diseases, but conclusive studies from general populations are lacking. Our objective was to examine if children with early-life respiratory tract infections had increased risks of lower lung function and asthma at school age. METHODS: We used individual participant data of 150 090 children primarily from the EU Child Cohort Network to examine the associations of upper and lower respiratory tract infections from age 6 months to 5 years with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC, forced expiratory flow at 75% of FVC (FEF75%) and asthma at a median (range) age of 7 (4-15) years. RESULTS: Children with early-life lower, not upper, respiratory tract infections had a lower school-age FEV1, FEV1/FVC and FEF75% (z-score range: -0.09 (95% CI -0.14- -0.04) to -0.30 (95% CI -0.36- -0.24)). Children with early-life lower respiratory tract infections had a higher increased risk of school-age asthma than those with upper respiratory tract infections (OR range: 2.10 (95% CI 1.98-2.22) to 6.30 (95% CI 5.64-7.04) and 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.32) to 1.55 (95% CI 1.47-1.65), respectively). Adjustment for preceding respiratory tract infections slightly decreased the strength of the effects. Observed associations were similar for those with and without early-life wheezing as a proxy for early-life asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that early-life respiratory tract infections affect development of chronic obstructive respiratory diseases in later life, with the strongest effects for lower respiratory tract infections.

Diet and mental health in pregnancy: Nutrients of importance based on large observational cohort data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine associations between dietary intake and well-being in pregnancy. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis combined three studies: the ROLO Study (a randomized controlled trial of a low-glycemic-index diet in pregnancy), the Pregnancy Exercise and nutrition Research Study with smartphone application support (PEARS), and a randomized controlled trial on probiotics. All data were collected before study interventions (16 wk). Dietary intakes during pregnancy were determined using 3-day food diaries. The five-item World Health Organization Well-Being Index was used to assess mental well-being. Initial associations were evaluated using Pearson correlations and further defined with multiple regression analysis adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), Pobal Haase and Pratschke deprivation index, and metabolic equivalent of task minutes scores. RESULTS: A total of 1521 women were included in the analysis (mean age, 32+4 y; mean BMI, 27 kg/m2 [IQR, 17-56 kg/m2]). The mean well-being score was 59%. Regression analysis showed that fiber (B = 0.07; P = 0.02), magnesium (B = 0.08; P < 0.01), niacin (B = 0.09; P < 0.01), thiamine (B = 0.07; P = 0.01), and folate (B = 0.08; P = 0.02) were all positively and significantly associated with well-being in a pregnant population. The Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to correct for multiple testing was applied, and significance remained. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal nutrition and well-being are related during early pregnancy. Our findings suggest that fiber, magnesium, and particular B vitamins may be of importance for promoting positive mental well-being during pregnancy.