CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores and real-world oral anticoagulant prescribing decisions in atrial fibrillation.

Background: Guidelines indicate that oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment decisions in atrial fibrillation should be based on a balanced consideration of thromboembolic and bleeding risk. Materials & methods: A retrospective cohort of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients were identified. Univariate logistic regression and conditional inference trees were used to quantify the importance of the CHA2DS2-VASc and modified HAS-BLED scores and their individual components on OAC treatment decisions. Results: The individual components of these risk scores provided more distinguishability between treated and untreated patients than the risk scores themselves, with bleeding risk factors strongly associated with nontreatment. Conclusion: While individual components of risk scores drive OAC treatment decisions according to guidelines, the relationship between bleeding risk factors and nontreatment warrants further consideration.

Factors associated with non-prescription of oral anticoagulant treatment in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with dementia: a CPRD-HES study.

Dementia is a common comorbidity in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and treatment guidelines recommend oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for AF patients with dementia unless concordance cannot be ensured by the caregiver. Despite this, the literature reports a low prescribing of OAC treatment in these patients. This study investigated possible factors associated with non-prescribing of OAC treatment in dementia patients newly diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) at age ≥ 65 years between 2013 and 2017 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episodes Statistics databases. Of 1090 dementia patients newly diagnosed with NVAF, 693 (63.6%) patients did not have a prescription for an OAC in the year following their diagnosis. The likelihood of experiencing a thromboembolic event was high, with 97% of the population having a CHA2DS2-VASc score > 2; however, little difference in the presence of stroke risk factors was observed between the prescribed and non-prescribed groups. The presence of bleeding risk factors was high; only 28 (2.6%) of patients did not have a previous fall or a HAS-BLED bleeding risk factor. A history of falls [OR = 0.76, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) (0.58, 0.98)], previous major bleed [OR = 0.56, 95% CI (0.43, 0.73)] and care home residence [OR = 0.47, 95% CI (0.30, 0.74)] were associated with not having an OAC prescription. The results suggest that dementia patients with NVAF and certain risk bleeding risk factors are less likely to be prescribed an OAC. Further work is needed to establish possible relationships between bleeding risk factors and other potential drivers of OAC prescribing.

Suspected cancer symptoms and blood test results in primary care before a diagnosis of lung cancer: a case-control study.

Aim: To compare symptoms and blood test results prior to cancer diagnosis in individuals who developed lung cancer and those who did not. Patients & methods: Nested case-control study, lung cancer patients were matched to up four controls with no record of cancer. Differences in symptoms and blood test results were investigated in the 2-year period prior to diagnosis. Results: 26,379 lung cancer patients were matched to 92,125 controls. Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) was independently predictive of lung cancer at every 2-month interval 12 months prior to diagnosis. Elevated CRP in conjunction with at least one symptom was associated with greater than fourfold higher odds of lung cancer. Conclusion: CRP may be a prediagnostic marker for lung cancer, and when present with other symptoms could facilitate the investigation of high-risk individuals.

Comparison of accelerometer-derived physical activity levels between individuals with and without cancer: a UK Biobank study.

Aim: To identify the difference in physical activity (PA) levels between individuals with and without cancer, and to estimate all-cause mortality associated with this difference. Methods: Current cancer, cancer survivor and cancer-free groups were identified from the UK Biobank. We used multivariate and Cox regression to estimate PA differences and association of PA with all-cause mortality. Results: Compared with the cancer-free individuals, participants in the two cancer groups had fewer minutes in moderate-to-vigorous PA per day in adjusted analyses. The PA difference was associated with higher mortality in the current cancer group. Conclusion: Patients with a history of cancer were less active than those without cancer, and PA is associated with increased mortality. PA improvement strategies in cancer patients must be explored.

Commonly used definitions in real-world studies may underestimate the prevalence of renal disease among nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients.

Aim: To describe comorbidities among treated nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients and assess the impact of using different time ('look back' windows) on the prevalence estimates. Patients & methods: We included all adult nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients newly initiating treatment in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Comorbidities included in the Charlson Comorbidity Index were defined using an all available, 3- and 1-year look back window before the start of treatment. Results: The prevalence of comorbidities was high and increased when using longer look back windows; the largest difference was observed for renal disease (+15.6%). Conclusion: Our findings emphasize the importance of using all available data when characterizing chronic conditions and highlights the high comorbidity burden in this population.

Impact of atrial fibrillation awareness campaigns: interrupted time series using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Aim: This study investigated whether the rates of atrial fibrillation (AF) consultations changed following AF awareness campaigns in England. Materials & methods: Among adults in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Poisson regression was used to model weekly rates of AF-related consultations over time. The models were used to assess whether rates changed in the 8 weeks following World Heart Rhythm Week (WHRW) and Global AF aware week. Results: A higher incidence of pulse checks was observed following WHRW (IRR 1.16 [95% CI 1.08-1.24]). No difference in the incidence of AF diagnoses was noted following WHRW (IRR: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.97-1.09]) or Global AF aware week (IRR: 0.94 [95% CI: 0.88-1.00]). Conclusion: The results suggest AF campaigns may increase awareness but do not bring about short-term increases in the rates of AF diagnoses.

Renal function and oral anticoagulant treatment of incident non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a retrospective study.

Aim: To describe the renal function of individuals newly diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation in England, and describe how oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment varies according to renal function. Patients & methods: We identified a cohort of individuals with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (n = 18,419) and described their renal function at diagnosis and the prevalence of OAC treatment initiation by renal function. Results: 79% of individuals had some evidence of renal dysfunction with 12% having a glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m2. OAC treatment initiation in the 6 months following diagnosis was lower in individuals with severe renal dysfunction than in those with normal renal function. Conclusion: The high prevalence of renal dysfunction and low OAC treatment prevalence highlights the need for additional evidence regarding OACs in individuals with severe renal dysfunction.

The changing face of venous thromboembolism management in England.

Aim: Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which comprises deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, poses a global disease burden. Vitamin K antagonists have traditionally been the mainstay of treatment; however, the non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are emerging as an alternative. The relative use of these treatment classes in the real world is unknown. Patients & methods: We performed a retrospective study using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink to understand VTE treatment patterns. Results: NOACs have unseated vitamin K antagonist as the main form of VTE patient treatment in England. Conclusion: The data highlight how comfortable physicians have become in using NOACs to treat VTE in England and it is likely that the increasing use of NOACs will continue.

Discontinuation and primary care visits in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients treated with apixaban or warfarin.

AIM: Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) requires long-term anticoagulation treatment, which may necessitate frequent primary care visits. MATERIALS & METHODS: NVAF patients initiating warfarin or apixaban in 2012-2017 were identified from linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics) data. A propensity score matched Cox regression model compared discontinuation risk. Primary care visits were compared via negative binomial regression. RESULTS: A total of 2695 apixaban users were matched to warfarin patients. Discontinuation risk was lower with apixaban than warfarin (hazard ratio: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.35-0.46). Apixaban patients averaged 12.2 annual primary care visits, versus 17.1 for warfarin users (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Apixaban was associated with reduced rates of discontinuation and primary care visits compared with warfarin.

Validity of social media for assessing treatment patterns in oncology patients: a case study in melanoma.

There is a need to understand how patients are managed in the real world to better understand disease burden and unmet need. Traditional approaches to gather these data include the use of electronic medical record (EMR) or claims databases; however, in many cases data access policies prevent rapid insight gathering. Social media may provide a potential source of real-world data to assess treatment patterns, but the limitations and biases of doing so have not yet been evaluated. Here, we assessed whether patient treatment patterns extracted from publicly available patient forums compare to results from more traditional EMR and claims databases. We observed that the 95% confidence intervals of proportions of treatments received at first, second, and third line for advanced/metastatic melanoma generated from unstructured social media data overlapped with 95% confidence intervals from proportions obtained from 1 or more traditional EMR/Claims databases. Social media may offer a valid data option to understand treatment patterns in the real world.

Sleep and BMI: Do (Fitbit) bands aid?

Recent studies have used mainstream consumer devices (Fitbit) to assess sleep objectively and test the well documented association between sleep and body mass index (BMI). In order to further investigate the applicability of Fitbit data for biomedical research across the globe, we analysed openly available Fitbit data from a largely Chinese population. We found that after adjusting for age, gender, race, and average number of steps taken per day, average hours of sleep per day was negatively associated with BMI (p=0.02), further demonstrating the significant potential for wearables in international scientific research.

Google searches do not correlate with melanoma incidence in majority English speaking countries.

Recent reports have suggested that internet search behaviour may be a valuable tool to estimate melanoma incidence and mortality. Previous studies have used incorrect statistical methods, were focussed on the United States and/or did not use non-cancer control search terms to provide a context for interpreting the effects seen with the cancer-related terms. Using more robust statistical methods we found that no cancer search terms were significantly, or strongly correlated with melanoma incidence in 6 countries.

Overall Survival Endpoint in Oncology Clinical Trials: Addressing the Effect of Crossover--The Case of Pazopanib in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the issues of using overall survival (OS) as a primary endpoint in the presence of crossover and the statistical analyses available to adjust for confounded OS due to crossover in oncology clinical trials. METHODS: An indirect comparison was conducted between pazopanib and sunitinib in advanced renal cell carcinoma. Statistical adjustment methods were used to estimate the true comparative effectiveness of these treatments. Recently, a head-to-head trial comparing pazopanib and sunitinib was completed. This provided the opportunity to compare the OS treatment effect estimated for pazopanib versus sunitinib using indirect comparison and statistical adjustment techniques with that observed in the head-to-head trial. RESULTS: Using a rank-preserving structural failure time model to adjust for crossover in the pazopanib registration trial, the indirect comparison of pazopanib versus sunitinib resulted in an OS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.97, while an unadjusted analysis resulted in an OS HR of 1.96. The head-to-head trial reported a final OS HR of 0.92 for pazopanib versus sunitinib. CONCLUSION: This case study supports the need to adjust for confounded OS due to crossover, which enables trials to meet ethical standards and provides decision makers with a more accurate estimate of treatment benefit.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Progression-Free Survival in Patients with Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated with Pazopanib.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram for predicting the probability of 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) for patients receiving first-line pazopanib for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Statistical modeling was performed with data from 557 pazopanib-treated patients in the phase 3 COMPARZ trial. A multivariable Cox model was fit using known prognostic indicators. Variables included neutrophil count, serum levels of albumin and alkaline phosphatase, time from diagnosis to treatment, and bone metastases. Data from the pazopanib arm of a placebo-controlled phase 3 trial were used for validation. RESULTS: The model included ten prognostic variables and was plotted as a nomogram for predicting the probability of 12-month PFS. Calibration plots suggested reasonable correspondence between predicted probabilities and actual proportions of PFS. The concordance index for 12-month PFS was 0.625. Significant associations (p < 0.05) were observed between PFS and bone metastases, time from diagnosis to treatment, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase. Albumin and alkaline phosphatase appeared to be influential predictors. CONCLUSION: The nomogram predicts, with reasonable accuracy, PFS in patients with advanced RCC receiving pazopanib, based on their baseline clinical characteristics.

Impact of adverse events, treatment modifications, and dose intensity on survival among patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma treated with first-line sunitinib: a medical chart review across ten centers in five European countries.

Angiogenesis inhibitors have become standard of care for advanced and/or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but data on the impact of adverse events (AEs) and treatment modifications associated with these agents are limited. Medical records were abstracted at 10 tertiary oncology centers in Europe for 291 patients ≥ 18 years old treated with sunitinib as first-line treatment for advanced RCC (no prior systemic treatment for advanced disease). Logistic regression models were estimated to compare dose intensity among patients who did and did not experience AEs during the landmark periods (18, 24, and 30 weeks). Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the possible relationship of low-dose intensity (defined using thresholds of 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9) and treatment modifications during the landmark periods to survival. 64.4% to 67.9% of patients treated with sunitinib reported at least one AE of any grade, and approximately 10% of patients experienced at least one severe (grade 3 or 4) AE. Patients reporting severe AEs were statistically significantly more likely to have dose intensities below either 0.8 or 0.9. Dose intensity below 0.7 and dose discontinuation during all landmark periods were statistically significantly associated with shorter survival time. This study of advanced RCC patients treated with sunitinib in Europe found a significant relationship between AEs and dose intensity. It also found correlations between dose intensity and shorter survival, and between dose discontinuation and shorter survival. These results confirm the importance of tolerable treatment and maintaining dose intensity.

Randomized, controlled, double-blind, cross-over trial assessing treatment preference for pazopanib versus sunitinib in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma: PISCES Study.

PURPOSE: Patient-reported outcomes may help inform treatment choice in advanced/metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC), particularly between approved targeted therapies with similar efficacy. This double-blind cross-over study evaluated patient preference for pazopanib or sunitinib and the influence of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and safety factors on their stated preference. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with metastatic RCC were randomly assigned to pazopanib 800 mg per day for 10 weeks, a 2-week washout, and then sunitinib 50 mg per day (4 weeks on, 2 weeks off, 4 weeks on) for 10 weeks, or the reverse sequence. The primary end point, patient preference for a specific treatment, was assessed by questionnaire at the end of the two treatment periods. Other end points and analyses included reasons for preference, physician preference, safety, and HRQoL. RESULTS: Of 169 randomly assigned patients, 114 met the following prespecified modified intent-to-treat criteria for the primary analysis: exposure to both treatments, no disease progression before cross over, and completion of the preference questionnaire. Significantly more patients preferred pazopanib (70%) over sunitinib (22%); 8% expressed no preference (P < .001). All preplanned sensitivity analyses, including the intent-to-treat population, statistically favored pazopanib. Less fatigue and better overall quality of life were the main reasons for preferring pazopanib, with less diarrhea being the most cited reason for preferring sunitinib. Physicians also preferred pazopanib (61%) over sunitinib (22%); 17% expressed no preference. Adverse events were consistent with each drug's known profile. Pazopanib was superior to sunitinib in HRQoL measures evaluating fatigue, hand/foot soreness, and mouth/throat soreness. CONCLUSION: This innovative cross-over trial demonstrated a significant patient preference for pazopanib over sunitinib, with HRQoL and safety as key influencing factors.

Angiogenesis inhibitor therapies for advanced renal cell carcinoma: toxicity and treatment patterns in clinical practice from a global medical chart review.

The aim of this study was to assess the treatment patterns and safety of sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab in real-world clinical settings in US, Europe and Asia. Medical records were abstracted at 18 community oncology clinics in the US and at 21 tertiary oncology centers in US, Europe and Asia for 883 patients ≥ 18 years who had histologically/cytologically confirmed diagnosis of advanced RCC and received sunitinib (n=631), sorafenib (n=207) or bevacizumab (n=45) as first-line treatment. No prior treatment was permitted. Data were collected on all adverse events (AEs) and treatment modifications, including discontinuation, interruption and dose reduction. Treatment duration was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Demographics were similar across treatment groups and regions. Median treatment duration ranged from 6.1 to 10.7 months, 5.1 to 8.5 months and 7.5 to 9.8 months for sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. Grade 3/4 AEs were experienced by 26.0, 28.0 and 15.6% of sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. Treatment discontinuations occurred in 62.4 (Asia) to 63.1% (US) sunitinib, 68.8 (Asia) to 90.0% (Europe) sorafenib, and 66.7 (Asia) to 81.8% (US) bevacizumab patients. Globally, treatment modifications due to AEs occurred in 55.1, 54.2 and 50.0% sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. This study in a large, global cohort of advanced RCC patients found that angiogenesis inhibitors are associated with high rates of AEs and treatment modifications. Findings suggest an unmet need for more tolerable agents for RCC treatment.